Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats Vs. Mets (9/7-9/9)

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Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

With 26 games left in the regular season, the Washington Nationals (71-65) may be getting hot at the right time. They have won five straight games, including a sweep of the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. With the Braves losers of eight straight coming in, the Nats took care of business by putting up 38 runs over the four games. Plus, there was some drama involved on Friday night when Michael Taylor hit a pinch-hit walk-off three run homer in the bottom of the tenth despite batting a knee injury.

By sweeping the Braves, the Nationals are now within four games in the NL East and they have a chance to directly gain ground on the team ahead of them this week. The New York Mets (75-61) swept the Nats at Citi Field in their last meeting, but New York comes into this matchup with the Nats after losing two of three to the Marlins.

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Even though Terry Collins’ team had a bad weekend in Miami, this is an offense that has the bulk of its pieces in place as David Wright is back and playing third base. Since the All-Star Break, the Mets have scored 255 runs, which is the most in the National League and second in all of baseball, behind the Toronto Blue Jays. However, first baseman Lucas Duda, who had three home runs in the last series against the Nats, has been out since August 21 because of a back injury.

One of the main reasons for that success is Yoenis Cespedes. The Mets’ outfielder is hitting .301 in his last 33 games with 12 home runs and 29 RBI’s and he has four home runs in his five games. The Mets have four players in thelr lineup who have had 20 RBI’s since the break (Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy, and Wilmer Flores).

On the mound, New York’s starting pitching continues to be their strength, but Matt Harvey wrote about in the Players’ Tribune how he is going to shut his regular season down after 180-185 innings. He is at 166.1 innings and he will get the start against the Nationals on Tuesday night. This season, New York’s 3.40 starters’ ERA is the third best in the National League.

As for the bullpen, former Nats’ setup man Tyler Clippard has shined in the eighth inning role in Flushing. He has given up three runs in 21.1 innings, but one of those runs was a game tying solo shot by Justin Bour in the eighth inning of yesterday’s game. Nevertheless, Clippard and Familia (36-for-41 in saves) continue to be a tough late inning duo to beat. It will be interesting how often Matt Williams counters with Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen after not using them at all in the last series against the Mets.

In anticipation of the biggest series in the season so far, let’s take a look at who has the edge in these three pitching matchups:

Next: Today's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Jon Niese (8-10, 4.17 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (11-11, 2.89) – 1:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2

From a stretch of starts spanning from June 5-August 15 (13 starts), Jon Niese had only given up more than three runs in a game once. In his last three starts, Niese has struggled mightily, which puts a lot of pressure on him to get the series started for the Mets on the right note. During those three games, he has given up 18 runs in 16.1 innings to the Rockies and Phillies.

In his last outing against the Phillies on September 1, Niese went five innings, gave up six runs on seven hits, struck out two, and walked two. In his only start against the Nationals this year, Niese went seven innings, gave up one run on nine hits, struck out five, and walked one in a 1-0 loss (May 2).

The 28-year-old left-hander is 3-4 in 11 career starts against the Nationals with a 3.19 ERA with seven of those starts occurring at Nats Park (2-2, 3.19). However, he has not won a game at Nats Park since 2012. Wilson Ramos is 6-for-14 against Niese with a home run and three RBI’s.

For Max Scherzer, this is the kind of game that the Nationals paid him the big bucks for. He pitched better in his last start against the Cardinals on September 2, but he did give up a season-high 11 hits. That being said, Scherzer only gave up two runs over six innings, striking out ten batters, and walking one.

While Scherzer is pitching better, he still has not won a game in his last six starts. Since the All-Star Break, he is 1-4 in his last nine starts with a 4.85 ERA. He hasn’t walked a batter in two of his last three outings, but can he keep the Mets’ hitters from hitting the long ball? New York has 69 home runs since the break, which is second in the NL (Nats are fourth with 62).

In two starts this season against the Mets, Scherzer has been excellent, but he has yet to come up with a win. He is 0-2 with a 0.61 ERA in those two games and has held New York to a .170 batting average, but both of those outings came in the first half of the year. Curtis Granderson is 5-for-16 with a double, a home run, two RBI’s, and five walks.

Advantage: With the Nats winners of five in a row, this is the game that they have to get when you consider Tyler Clippard might not be available in the Mets’ bullpen for this one (41 pitches yesterday). Niese has thrown the second fewest innings of any pitcher in the rotation, so that could be a factor as well. While Scherzer hasn’t won in a while, he is one of those pitchers you can’t count out in a big game. If he can get into an early rhythm, I like his chances to get back on track and for the Nats to get their sixth straight win.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Harvey (12-7, 2.60 ERA) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (12-8, 3.38) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN2

Over the weekend, all the talk around the “Dark Knight” has been about his innings limits. Lost in all of the news is that Harvey was excellent for the Mets in the month of August. In those four outings, he went 2-0 with a 0.33 ERA, giving up only one run in 27 innings of work.

However, in his last outing on September 2 against the Phillies, he had his fair share of struggles. In 6.1 innings, Harvey gave up four runs on nine hits, struck out nine, and walked one in a win, but he did battle through some dehydration. Harvey, who has held opponents to a .207 batting average this year away from home, has not lost in his seven starts. That loss came against the Nats on July 20 at Nats Park when he went seven innings, gave up five runs (two earned runs) on four hits, struck out two, and walked none.

Despite that rough outing, Harvey is 2-1 with a 0.98 in four starts against the Nats this season and he has a 0.99 ERA in eight career starts. Ian Desmond is 5-for-20 with a double and a home run against him.

While he might not be as dominant as Harvey was recently, Jordan Zimmermann has won each of his last four starts. Against the Braves on September 3, Zimmermann was given plenty of run support in a 15-1 Nats win. He went six innings, gave up one run on two hits, struck out five, and walked four on 87 pitches.

If there’s one thing to critique from Zimmermann from that game, it’s the four walks. Coming into the game, he had four combined walks in his previous four starts. However, Zimmermann has been effective at home this season as he is 7-3 with a 2.52 ERA in 16 starts at Nats Park (5-5, 4.67 in 12 road starts).

One of the issues for Zimmermann this year has been giving up home runs. His 18 home runs allowed are one shy of tying his career high in a season (2013). Against the Mets on August 2, the Nats’ right-hander gave up three home runs in a 5-2 loss at Citi Field. This year, Zimmermann is 1-1 in three starts against New York with a 4.26 ERA, but he is 8-6 against New York with a 3.16 ERA in 23 career outings. Daniel Murphy is 20-for-59 (.339) with four home runs and nine RBI’s against him.

Advantage: While I do expect Zimmermann to pitch well in this game since his only win against the Mets this year is at Nats Park, this is the kind of game and atmosphere that Harvey thrives in. This is especially the case when he is near his innings limit and he wants to make sure he’s not the reason the Mets miss the playoffs. Plus, Bryce Harper, who has three home runs in the last three games, is 0-for-17 against Harvey. If Harper can’t figure him out, the Mets will get a close win.

Next: Wednesday's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Jacob deGrom (12-7, 2.40) vs. Stephen Strasburg (8-6, 4.35) – 7:05 PM ET, ESPN/MASN2

While Harvey’s innings limits have been under the microscope, keep in mind that Jacob deGrom has thrown 169 innings this year, which is the second most on the team (Bartolo Colon has 170). However, deGrom has been consistent all season. He has given up three runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. The only outing where deGrom struggled was on August 24 against the Phillies (six earned runs over three innings), but he was battling food poisoning that night.

In deGrom’s last start against the Marlins on September 4^th, he went six innings, gave up three runs on nine hits, struck out four, and walked none in a no-decision. Since the All-Star Break, the 27-year-old left-hander is 3-1 in nine outings with a 2.93 ERA. He has had two double digit strikeout games in his last five and his 175 strikeouts are seventh in the NL.

Against the Nats this season, deGrom is 1-2 in four starts with a 3.47 ERA. He is also 1-2 in five starts against Washington in his career with a 3.68 ERA. Ryan Zimmerman is 3-for-8 with a home run and four RBI’s against deGrom.

On Wednesday night, all eyes will be on Stephen Strasburg in the Nation’s Capital as he makes his first start since August 30 against the Marlins because of back tightness. In that game, Strasburg went four innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out three, and walked none.

The problem for Strasburg in that outing was the lack of velocity on his fastball. Strasburg, who is normally in the late 90’s on his fastball in terms of velocity, only averaged 94 miles per hour (according to Brooks Baseball). If he is completely healthy, Strasburg has shown flashes of dominance. He had given up five runs in four prior outings before the Marlins’ start.

In two starts against the Mets this season, Strasburg is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA, but New York has hit .319 against him in those games. However, he is 4-2 with a 2.64 ERA in eight career starts against New York. Wright is 6-for-19 against him with two RBI’s.

Advantage: This game has the potential to be a real pitcher’s duel when you consider the talent both pitchers will bring to the mound. The problem for the Nats in this game is that it’s tough to figure out which Strasburg will show up in this game. deGrom has been consistent for the Mets all season long and that consistency should help in this game. This one could come down to the bullpen, but I’ll take the Mets to win two out of three.

Next: Rapid Reaction: The Nats Are Rolling

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