Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Marlins (9/11-9/13)
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
For the Washington Nationals (71-68), it is now about winning as many games as they can. The Nats were four games behind the New York Mets in the NL East heading into Monday’s afternoon game, but they will enter play tonight against the Marlins, 7.5 games behind New York with 23 games to go. The Nats blew the lead late in the game of all three matchups, including losing a 7-1 lead in the seventh inning on Tuesday night. The bullpen was not able to get key outs, including the late inning duo of Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon.
After going 4-3 on their seven game homestand, the Nats begin a six game road trip tonight down in Miami with a three game series against the Marlins (59-81). Despite being 22 games under .500, the Marlins are 6-6 against the Nats in 12 matchups this season. Washington did take two of three games from Miami at Nats Park from August 28-30.
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While Jose Fernandez will be back in the Marlins’ rotation on Saturday, Dan Jennings’ team is still without Giancarlo Stanton. Miami’s right fielder, who has been out of the lineup since June 26, with a hand injury, will not play in this series and there is still a chance he will not play in another game this season.
When you look at this Marlins’ offense, the guy to keep an eye on is second baseman Dee Gordon (.328, 2 HR, 36 RBI’s). This season, Gordon is hitting .380 in 12 games against Washington with a .404 on-base percentage, As far as who has hit the most home runs against the Nationals, that would be first baseman Justin Bour (.255, 16 HR, 53 RBI’s). In 11 games, Bour has hit three home runs and drove in seven runs against Washington.
The Nationals come into this series reeling, but Miami has had some success of late as they have won their last three series. The Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.30, which is ninth in the National League, but the rotation looks a lot different then it did early in the season.
With that being said, let’s see who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (10-7, 3.96 ERA) vs. Jarred Cosart (1-4, 5.04) – 7:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2
After giving up 17 earned runs in his final four starts of August, Gio Gonzalez got his month of September off to a good start. Against the Braves on September 5, Gonzalez went six innings, gave up no runs on two hits, struck out ten batters, and walked four on 106 pitches. The ten strikeouts that Gonzalez had were a season-high.
The Nats’ left-hander did have four walks, but the offense gave him a 6-0 lead after the fourth inning. Gonzalez will be pitching at Marlins Park tonight, but he has a 4.81 ERA in 14 road starts this year (3.04 home ERA in 12 outings).
Against the Marlins this season, Gonzalez made one starts at Marlins Park on April 26. He went five innings, gave up six runs on ten hits, struck out eight, and walked one in a loss. In nine career starts vs. Miami, he is 6-3 with a 2.44 ERA. Ichiro Suzuki (.242, 1 HR, 20 RBI’s) is a .361 career hitter against Gonzalez with two RBI’s.
As for Jarred Cosart, the Marlins’ right-hander made his first start in over two months on September 6 against the Mets. In that game, Cosart went 4.2 innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out three, and walked one on 88 pitches in a no-decision.
Before that last start, the 25-year-old right-hander was pitching for the double-A Jupiter Hammerheads and gave up seven runs over nine innings. Cosart, who was acquired via trade from the Astros in July 2014, was on the disabled list back in May due to vertigo. Last year, he won 13 games for Houston and Miami with a 3.69 ERA. In three career starts against the Nats, Cosart is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA. Jayson Werth is 4-for-6 against him with a home run and a RBI.
Advantage: The key for Gonzalez in this game is going to be if he can limit his walks since he has 12 walks in his last five outings. In addition, Gonzalez only had four flyball outs in his last start against the Braves (lowest in an outing this season). It all depends on how the Nats can bounce back after a difficult series against the Mets, but I like Washington to take the first game in this series.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Tanner Roark (4-4, 4.41) vs. Jose Fernandez (4-0, 2.30) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN
On Saturday, Roark will make his first start with the Nationals since it was announced that he would take Joe Ross’ spot in the rotation. Roark did start for the Nats on September 4 against the Braves when Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his start. Roark went 4.1 innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out three, and walked one on 69 pitches in a no-decision.
While Roark did throw a first pitch strike to 14 of the 21 batters that he faced against the Braves, he was not unable to get the win because of the three walks. It will be interesting to see how far the Nats decide to push Roark in this game because of the bullpen’s struggles. He went from throwing 34 pitches in Harrisburg to 69 on Friday.
In four games (one start) against Miami this season, Roark is 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA and has one save. He is 2-2 with a 2.14 ERA in ten career outings (four starts). Derek Dietrich (.265, 10 HR, 23 RBI’s) is 1-for-5 against him, but that one hit was a home run to go with three RBI’s.
While Stanton is still out for Miami, the Marlins will get Jose Fernandez back in the rotation tomorrow night. Fernandez has been out since August 7 because of a biceps strain. Before that injury, the 23-year-old right-hander was 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts.
Tomorrow night, Fernandez has a chance to make some history if he can find a way to beat the Nationals. With a win, he would improve his record to 16-0 at home in his career, which would give him the most consecutive home victories without a loss in his home park. He has 53 strikeouts this season in seven outings, including two double-digit strikeout games.
Fernandez did face the Nationals back on July 28. The Nats did show great patience at the plate and drew four walks, but they only managed to score one run on four hits over the course of six innings. In four career starts against Washington, he is 2-0 with a 0,69 ERA. Werth is 1-for-11 with a home run and four RBI’s against Fernandez.
Advantage: While I do expect Roark to keep the Nats in the game, Fernandez has been a tough pitcher to face. For one, it might be a good idea for Matt Williams to keep Ian Desmond out of the lineup that night since Desmond is 0-for-12 against Fernandez with ten strikeouts. I do expect the Nats to keep the same gameplan against him from the July matchup by drawing up the pitch count, but I like the Marlins to get the win in the second game of this series.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer (11-11, 3.03) vs. Brad Hand (4-5, 5.20) – 1:10 PM ET, MASN
In his last start against the Mets, the Nats needed Max Scherzer to put up an ace-type game and Scherzer could not deliver. He went six innings, gave up five runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked none in a no-decision. He has now gone seven straight starts without recording a win.
One of the main problems for Scherzer in the second half of the season has been the location of his fastball. While the velocity is still there, he gave up three home runs in his last outing and has given up eight home runs in his last five starts. While the 31-year-old right-hander has 225 strikeouts this season, he has a 5.12 ERA in his last tens tarts.
The one thing that could work for Scherzer in this game is that his last win came against Miami on July 30. He went seven innings, gave up no runs on three hits, struck out six batters, and walked three. He is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in three starts against Miami this season and he has a 4.00 ERA in four career outings against them (2-1 record). Martin Prado (.284, 7 HR, 52 RBI’s) is 8-for-16 against Scherzer with a home run and two RBI’s.
As for Brad Hand, his last outing was one he would like to forget. On September 5 against the Mets, Hand went 1.2 innings, gave up seven runs on six hits, struck out two batters, and walked two. Hand has lost back-to-back games, with one of those losses coming against the Nats on August 30 when he gave up five runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings.
This year, as a starter, the 25-year-old left-hander has a 5.51 ERA in ten starts. The one thing that should work in Hand’s favor is that he is a groundball pitcher (11+ groundball outs in five of his last six starts), but the Mets hit three home runs against him last Saturday and he has given up six home runs in his last five outings.
In ten career outings (eight starts) against the Nats, Hand is 0-6 with a 7.96 ERA. Bryce Harper, who hit two home runs on Wednesday, is 4-for-13 against Hand with a triple, a home run, and five RBI’s.
Advantage: On paper, this looks like a complete mismatch even with Scherzer struggling to keep opponents from hitting the ball out of the park. If the Nats can bring the offense to the ballpark on Sunday, they should be able to get the win against Hand. Nats take the series and Scherzer snaps the winless streak.
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