Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats at Phillies (9/14-9/16)
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
To begin their six game road trip, the Washington Nationals (72-70) did lose two out of three games to the Miami Marlins. Plus, they still wait to see how Bryce Harper feels after leaving yesterday’s game due to colliding with Derek Dietrich in the first inning. While the Nats only scored seven runs in the series, they got a good performance from Max Scherzer yesterday as he threw eight shutout innings to get his first win since July 30. Another injury that was announced this past weekend was setup man Drew Storen will likely miss the rest of the year because of a broken thumb.
With 20 games left in the season, the Nats trail the Mets by 9.5 games in the NL East and their tragic number is now down to 11. To finish up their six game road trip, Matt Williams’ club heads down to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies (56-88)for the first time in the second half of the season. Of course, there was major news in Philly this past week as Ruben Amaro Jr. was fired as general manager by the team’s president-in-waiting, Andy MacPhail.
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Since the All-Star Break, Pete Mackanin’s club is 27-26 and they are a much different team than the one the Nats faced in late June. Chase Utley is now playing for the Dodgers, Cole Hamels is now pitching in a pennant race for the Rangers, and Jonathan Papelbon will be in the visitor’s dugout after he was traded from Philly to the Nats before the trade deadline.
As far as the offense goes, the Phillies have scored 247 runs since the break, which is seventh in the NL and is two runs fewer than the Nats have scored. Ryan Howard (.228, 22 HR, 76 RBI’s) has seven home runs and 31 RBI’s in his last 46 games. Another player to watch is center fielder Odubel Herrera (.299, 8 HR, 40 RBI’s). This season, the 23-year-old center fielder is hitting .333 vs. Washington with five RBI’s.
On the mound, Philadelphia does not have an ace, but they have built up some promising arms in their minor league system. One guy who has made it to the big leagues is Aaron Nola. Nola, who will be starting tonight for the Phillies, is 6-2 with a 3.56 ERA in ten starts. In the bullpen, new closer Ken Giles is 13 for his last 14 in saves and has given up two earned runs in his last 22 games.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Zimmermann (12-8, 3.32 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.56) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
In his last start against the Mets, Jordan Zimmermann looked like he was on his way to winning his fifth straight game, but the Nats bullpen couldn’t hold a 7-1 lead. Nevertheless, Zimmermann was able to hold a red hot Mets’ offense to one run on three hits over 5.2 innings. He struck out six batters and walked one on 100 pitches. Over his last 18.2 innings, the 29-year-old right-hander has struck out 15 batters and held the opposition to three combined runs.
When you look at Zimmermann’s 2015 season, he is already at 34 walks on the season. He is now nine walks away from tying his career-high for most walks in a season (43). One thing that has helped Zimmermann is his offense has given him a ton of run support in those last five outings (51 runs scored).
Against the Phillies, Zimmermann made one start this year back on April 18. He went 6.1 innings, gave up two runs on four hits, struck out three, and walked four in a loss. He is 6-7 with a 3.43 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Philadelphia. Domonic Brown (.228, 5 HR, 25 RBI’s) is 7-for-14 with three doubles and three RBI’s against Zimmermann.
Tonight, the Nats will face Aaron Nola for the first time. Nola was drafted by the Phillies with the seventh pick in the 2014 MLB Draft out of LSU. He made his debut in June for Philadelphia and he has shown some good signs. In his last start vs. the Braves on September 8, he went seven innings, gave up no runs on six hits, struck out seven, and walked one.
While the 22-year-old right-hander has only averaged 88 pitches per outing and has only thrown 100 pitches in a start once, he brings a good variety of pitches to the table. According to Fangraphs, Nola has an average velocity of 90 miles per hour on his fastball to go with his curveball and changeup. He has 15 walks in ten starts and four of those came in one start against the Blue Jays on August 18.
Advantage: Zimmermann has been on a roll lately, but the X-factor in this game is how the Nats adjust to a pitcher of Nola’s caliber. When opponents face him the third time though the order, they are only hitting .217. If that trend hold true, it could be tough for the Nats, who are without Ryan Zimmerman, to get many runs on the board. It will be a low scoring game, but the Phillies will take the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Strasburg (8-7, 4.30) vs. David Buchanan (2-8, 9.11) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN2
After missing one start due to back tightness, Stephen Strasburg re-entered the rotation against the Mets on September 9. In that outing, he went 7.1 innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out 13 batters (a season-high) and walked one on 103 pitches. However, he would get the loss because of Yoenis Cespedes hitting a two-run homer off Drew Storen in the eighth.
That being said, Strasburg has still been very good since he returned to the rotation in August. Over his last six starts, he is 3-2 with a 2.89 ERA, has 48 strikeouts to just four walks, and has held opponents to a .193 batting average. If the velocity is there on his fastball, he is going to have success.
In three starts against the Phillies this season, he is 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA. He is 6-2 in 14 career starts against Philadelphia with a 2.48 ERA. Ryan Howard is 5-for-25 with two RBI’s against him.
It’s been a rough season for Buchanan as he has gone back-and-forth between the rotation and the bullpen. He made his first start since August 11 on September 9 against the Braves. After giving up 11 runs in 1.2 innings against Arizona in August, Buchanan went 3.1 innings, gave up four runs on ten hits, and walked three hitters in a loss.
The 26-year-old right-hander has not been able to go deep into games this year as he only averages about 83 pitches per start. Plus, due to his high ERA, opponents have been able to hit .373 against him.
Buchanan faced the Nationals back on April 19 at Nats Park. He went five innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out four, and walked three in a loss. He is 0-2 with a 8.18 ERA in two outings vs. the Nats in his career. Ian Desmond is 3-for-6 against him with a double, a home run, and two RBI’s.
Advantage: On paper, this one looks to be a mismatch in favor of the Nationals, but that is why they play the games. Nevertheless, if Strasburg shows no problems with his back, he should be able to put up another good outing against a pitcher that has to be lacking confidence in Buchanan. Nats break out the bats and cruise to a win.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Gio Gonzalez (10-7, 3.88) vs. Adam Morgan (5-6, 4.60) – 7:05 PM ET, MASN2
Gio Gonzalez takes the ball for the Nats in the series finale. While he has been able to keep the runs he allows to a minimum, he has not been able to go deep into the game. In his last outing against the Marlins on September 11, Gonzalez went 5.1 innings, gave up one run on four hits, struck out four, and walked three in a no-decision.
Gonzalez has 15 walks in his last six starts and his 60 walks are ninth in the National League. That being said, he has only given up four earned runs in his last three starts. While he has seven walks this month, he has a 0.79 ERA in two September starts after having a 5.46 ERA in six starts back in August.
Against the Phillies this season, Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts. For his career, he is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA in 14 starts against Philadelphia. Jeff Francoeur (.269, 12 HR, 43 RBI’s) is 8-for-20 with two doubles, a home run, and three RBI’s against Gonzalez.
On Wednesday, the Nats will get their first look at Adam Morgan. Morgan is one of those pitchers along with Nola who made their Major League debut back in June. Morgan was supposed to face Gonzalez back on June 27, but rain forced the game to be cancelled after the two teams had played one inning.
In his last start on September 11 against the Cubs, the 25-year-old left-hander went five innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out five, and walked one in a loss. In two starts this month, he has given up ten runs in 11.1 innings. On the mound, Morgan has an average velocity of 89 miles per hour on his fastball (according to Fangraphs) along with a slider, breaking ball, and changeup.
Advantage: Just like facing Nola on Monday, the X-Factor will be how the Nats adjust to facing a pitcher they have not seen before. If Gonzalez can cut down on the walks and stay efficient in this game, I like the Nationals to come out of Philadelphia with a series win.
Next: Nats Need To Start Looking Ahead To 2016