Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats Vs. Marlins (9/17-9/20)
Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
In their three game series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Washington Nationals (75-70) brought the bats to Citizens Bank Park. The Nats scored 24 runs in their three game sweep of the Phillies, but the stars of the show were Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper. Werth and Harper combined to hit six home runs with Werth hitting four of them.
As far as the pitching went, the Nats got back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances from Stephen Strasburg (who gave up only one hit Tuesday) and Gio Gonzalez. Due to the sweep, the Nats have won four in a row and have kept their slim playoff hopes alive. They are 7.5 games behind the Mets with 17 to go as they get to begin their last homestand of the year. Those 11 games begin with a four game series against the Miami Marlins (63-83).
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The Nats and Marlins faced each other last weekend at Marlins Park, with Miami taking two out of three in the series. The Marlins won their two games by a combined score of 3-1 wih Max Scherzer taking the series finale by throwing eight shutout innings last Sunday.
Since that series, the Marlins went into Citi Field and took two out of three from the Mets. Even though Miami is in third place in the NL East, they have won ten of their last 14 games and they are 8-7 against the Nats this season. Miami has only scored 58 runs this month, but first baseman Justin Bour (.259, 17 HR, 58 RBI’s) and third baseman Martin Prado (.285, 8 HR, 54 RBI’s) have each driven in double-digit runs. Bour has 12 RBI’s and Prado has 11.
While the offense has scored the third fewest runs in baseball this month, Miami has got some good pitching. Their team ERA of 3.26 over the last 15 games is second in the National League, behind only the Chicago Cubs (3.15).
Let’s take a look to see who has the edge in each of the four pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Jarred Cosart (1-4, 4.58 ERA) vs. Tanner Roark (4-5, 4.38) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
Cosart’s last start came against the Nationals on September 11. In that game, he went five innings, gave up no runs on four hits, struck out five batters, and walked three in a no-decision. Miami would go on to get the win 2-1 and it was due in part to the Nats going 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and leaving nine on base.
When you look at Cosart’s start more closely, only 55 of his 90 pitches went for strikes and he threw 12 first pitch strikes to the 21 batters he faced. The one thing the Nats can look forward to in this game is Cosart is likely not to last very long in this one. The last time Cosart went more than five innings in a game was on April 27 against the Mets. Against the Nats, the 25-year-old right-hander is 0-2 in four starts with a 2.82 ERA. Jayson Werth is 5-for-8 against him with a home run and a RBI.
As for Tanner Roark, his last outing against the Marlins occurred on September 12 when he went up against Jose Fernandez. It’s tough to beat Fernandez, especially at Marlins Park, but Roark held his own. He went 4.2 innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out two batters, and walked one in a no-decision.
The one problem for Roark in these games is that he can’t get out of the fifth inning and has not even thrown 70 pitches in his two starts since entering the rotation. He did induce nine groundball outs in his last start, but he only threw eight first pitch strikes the entire night. Even though Giancarlo Stanton is not in this lineup, throwing that first pitch for a strike has to be a priority for Roark in this start.
In his career against Miami, Roark is 2-3 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 games (five starts). Casey McGehee (.183, 0 HR, 7 RBI’s) is 4-for-10 against him with two doubles and a RBI.
Advantage: This game is going to come down to which pitcher will be able to locate his fastball and throw it for strikes on a consistent basis. Even if Roark struggles, I would like to see Matt Williams let him get out of trouble in the middle innings. With that being said, it’s tough to trust Roark as a starter this year, so I will give the edge to Cosart in this one.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Jose Fernandez (5-0, 2.96) vs. Max Scherzer (12-11, 2.91) – 7:05 PM, MASN/MLB Network
The one positive for the Nationals going into this game tomorrow night is that the game will be played at Nats Park, not Marlins Park, where Fernandez is 16-0 in his career. Against the Nats on September 12, Fernandez went five innings, gave up no runs on two hits, struck out seven, and walked one in a 2-0 win.
While the 23-year-old right-hander has only made eight starts this season, he has yet to give up more than three runs in any of them. The Marlins have not rushed Fernandez in his recovery from his biceps injury as he only threw 76 pitches in his last outing. The Marlins want to see Fernandez end his season the right way, but they want him to be healthy along with Stanton heading into the 2016 season.
Fernandez is 3-0 with a 0.58 ERA in five starts against Washington, but none of those outings have come at Nats Park. Bryce Harper is 2-for-8 against him with three walks, but he has struck out four times. In the second half of the season, the only team that Max Scherzer has been able to beat is the Miami Marlins. Back on September 13, in the Nats only win of the series last weekend, Scherzer went eight innings, gave up no runs on five hits, struck out six, and did not walk anyone on 102 pitches.
Over the last 15 innings against Miami, Scherzer has given up eight hits, struck out 12, and walked three. The control has been much better for him as he has not walked a batter in four straight starts and five of his last six, but the key for him is to avoid giving up the long ball. Since the All-Star Break, Scherzer has given up 14 home runs in 11 starts.
In four starts against the Marlins this season, Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 30:3. Martin Prado is 9-for-19 against him in his career with two doubles, a home run, and two RBI’s.
Advantage: This is the one game out of the four that is must see TV because I expect this matchup to be a pitcher’s duel. Both pitchers have been great against the opposition this season. If Scherzer can avoid giving up the home run ball in this game, I like his chances. Plus, he will go longer in this game than Fernandez, which should give him the slightest of edges. Nats win 2-1.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Justin Nicolino (3-3, 3.81) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (12-8, 3.51) – 4:05 PM, MASN/MLB Network
Nicolino is another pitcher that has made his debut for the Marlins at some point during this season. He has made nine starts this season, with the most recent one coming on September 14 against the Mets. In that game, he went six innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out two, and walked one in a no-decision.
Nicolino was involved in the mega trade between the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins in 2012 that sent Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle to the Jays. It is a small sample size, but the 23-year-old left-hander is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts away from Marlins Park (0-3, 5.86 at home). According to Fangraphs, Nicolino throws four pitches. He has a fastball that averages at 88 miles per hour to go with a cutter, curveball, and changeup.
For a while, it looked like Jordan Zimmermann was going to pick up another win in his last outing against the Phillies on September 14. However, he ran into some trouble in the sixth inning when he ended up blowing a 6-2 lead by giving up four runs. In the end, Zimmermann went six innings, gave up six runs on seven hits, struck out eight batters, and walked one.
The problem for Zimmermann against the Phillies was the two home runs he gave up, which included giving up a game tying three run homer to Cody Asche. He has given up 21 home runs this season, which is a career high. Nevertheless, he is holding opposing hitters to a .197 batting average in three starts this month.
Against the Marlins this season, Zimmermann is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts. For his career, he is 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 21 career starts vs. Miami. Justin Bour is 3-for-11 against him this season with two home runs and three RBI’s.
Advantage: It will be interesting to see how the Nats offense adjusts to facing an unknown pitcher. Zimmermann has given up plenty of home runs this year, but he did hold the Marlins to one run over seven innings in a win on March 29. Plus, he has held opponents to a .233 batting average at home (.302 on the road). I like the Nationals to eventually pull away and get the win.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Brad Hand (4-6, 5.32) vs. Stephen Strasburg (9-7, 3.98) – 1:35 PM, MASN
In his last three starts, Brad Hand has been awful, to say the least. During those three games against the Mets and Nats (twice), he has given up 15 runs in 9.1 innings, has walked eight batters, and given up four home runs.
Plus, if the 25-year-old left-hander was looking for a bounce back start on Sunday, going on the road may not be the best for him. In 16 road appearances this season, Hand is 1-4 with a 7.60 ERA. Plus, right-handed hitters are hitting .327 against him this season (lefties hitting .219). In 11 career games (nine starts) against the Nationals, Hand is 0-7 with a 7.97 ERA. Anthony Rendon is 8-for-16 against Hand with two doubles and four RBI’s.
While Hand is trending in the wrong direction, Stephen Strasburg’s trend is going upward. On Tuesday night, Strasburg was dominant against the Phillies. He went eight innings, gave up one hit, struck out 14 batters, and walked one in a 4-0 win.
In his last 15.1 innings, Strasburg has struck out 27 batters and walked only two. The only criticism you can have of Strasburg right now is that he has allowed five home runs in his last three starts. However, now that he is finally healthy, he is showing signs that he can be a force in the National League in 2016.
Strasburg is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA in three starts this season against the Marlins. In his last outing against them on August 30, he had to leave the game after four innings because of back tightness. He is 9-7 in 22 career starts against them with a 3.83 ERA. Marcell Ozuna (.249, 8 HR, 37 RBI’s) is 7-for-19 against Strasburg with a home run and five RBI’s.
Advantage: While anything can happen in baseball, this game appears to be a mismatch. As long as Strasburg can stay healthy, I like the Nats’ chances for a blowout win and a series win over the Marlins.