Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats vs. Orioles (9/21-9/23)
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
After losing the first game of their four game series against the Miami Marlins, the Washington Nationals (78-71) managed to take the final three games to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. While the tragic number is at eight games, the Nats are six games behind the New York Mets in the NL East with 13 to go and the two teams still play a three game series at Citi Field to end the year.
The Nats’ offense, which has scored the most runs of any team this month, put up 23 runs in the final three games against Miami. The highlight of this series occurred on Friday when Max Scherzer told Matt Williams he wanted to keep the ball in a 2-2 tie in the seventh inning. Then, Jose Lobaton was able to hit a walk-off sacrifice fly in the bottom of the tenth to give the Nats a 5-4 win.
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Tonight, the Nationals try to keep their win streak going when they play round two of the Beltway Series against the Baltimore Orioles (73-76). In round one at Camden Yards, the Nats took two out of three games from July 10-12, which was the last series for both teams until the All-Star Break. However, since the All-Star Break, Buck Showalter’s squad is 29-32 and is currently 5.5 games behind the Astros for the second wild card spot in the American League. On offense, the O’s have hit 90 home runs since the break, which is second in the AL (Toronto has 95).
In his last 61 games, first baseman Chris Davis (.264, 43 HR, 109 RBI’s) is hitting .305 with 24 home runs and 57 RBI’s. Davis is ending the year strong and he will be a free agent at the end of the season. The other two players with double-digit home runs for Baltimore since the All-Star Game are Adam Jones and Manny Machado.
The main problem for the O’s has been their starting pitching. This season, the O’s rotation has a 4.64 ERA, which is the second highest in the AL (Tigers are the worst at 4.86). While the starters have struggled, the bullpen’s team ERA of 3.13 is the second lowest in the AL (Kansas City leads at 2.72). If the Orioles have a lead going into the 9th, they will turn to All-Star closer Zach Britton, who is 34-for-38 in saves. Plus, don’t underestimate another All-Star, Darren O’Day, who has a 1.52 ERA in 62 appearances this year.
Let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Ubaldo Jimenez (11-9, 4.31 ERA) vs. Gio Gonzalez (11-7, 3.83) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN
While Jimenez has the most wins of any Orioles’ pitcher in the starting rotation, it has been a rough second half for the 31-year-old right-hander Jimenez is 4-5 with a 6.58 ERA in his last 12 starts with opponents hitting .282 against him over that span.
In his last start against the Red Sox on September 15, he went five innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out four batters, and walked three in a no-decision. The problem for Jimenez this season has been his command. He has 59 walks, which is tenth in the American League. That being said, it’s an improvement after walking 77+ batters in each of his last two seasons.
In seven career starts against the Nats, Jimenez is 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA, but he has not faced Washington since 2011, when he was with the Rockies. Yunel Escobar is 8-for-21 against him with one double, one home run and two RBI’s.
With the success of the Nats’ top three starters over the weekend, it is up to Gio Gonzalez to keep that momentum. In his last outing against the Phillies on September 16, Gonzalez went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out 12 batters (a career-high), and walked two in a win.
Gonzalez, who is not known for being a strikeout pitcher, has put up double-digit strikeout totals in two of his last three starts. Now, he does have 62 walks this season, but the left-hander hasn’t lost a game in his last four starts. In his last three starts, he has a 1.47 ERA.
Back on July 10, Gonzalez went six innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out five, and walked three against the O’s in a no-decision. He is 1-4 against Baltimore in eight starts with a 3.51 ERA and he hasn’t beaten Baltimore since 2009. Catcher Matt Wieters (.247, 6 HR, 19 RBI’s) is 10-for-17 with a double, a home run, and four RBI’s against Gonzalez.
Advantage: This game is going to come down to which lineup takes advantage of the free passes given up by the opposing pitchers. To me, this comes down to the long ball, something Jimenez has given up 13 times this season on the road (4.88 ERA). The Nats offense comes into this series with confidence and I expect them to come out with the win tonight.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Tillman (9-11, 5.19) vs. Tanner Roark (4-6. 4.73) – 7:05 PM, MASN
Coming into the season, there were high expectations on Chris Tillman after going 13-6 with a 3.34 ERA last year. However, it’s been the exact opposite for Tillman this season. The 27-year-old right-hander hasn’t given up fewer than three runs in an outing since August 17 against the A’s, which was the last time he got a win.
In his last start against the Rays on September 17, Tillman went 5.2 innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out four, and walked three in a no-decision. So far, in four starts this month, Tillman is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA and he has failed to make it through six innings in either of those games.
Back on July 10, Tillman went six innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out six, and walked one in a no-decision against the Nationals. He has not recorded a decision in four starts vs. the Nats (4.37 ERA). Anthony Rendon is 1-for-3 against him with a home run and two RBI’s in his career.
For Tanner Roark, the last couple of weeks are all about making a good impression to stay in consideration for the 2016 rotation. Since going back to the rotation, Roark has only finished five innings one time and has not thrown more than 80 pitches.
In his last outing against the Marlins on September 17, Roark went five innings, but gave up six runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked none in a loss. His command was better as he threw 54 of his 80 pitches for strikes, but he has had trouble facing a lineup the second time through (.333 opponents’ batting average).
In a loss to the Orioles on July 10, Roark was the pitcher that gave up the walk-off home run to Jonathan Schoop in a 3-2 O’s win. He is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his career vs. Baltimore. Gerardo Parra (.291, 14 HR, 46 RBI’s) is 3-for-7 with a home run and RBI against Roark.
Advantage: This game should be an offensive slugfest considering the way both pitchers are struggling at the moment. While I expect the Nats to do well against Tillman, Roark just hasn’t been able to go deep into the game and I like the O’s bullpen more than the Nats as of right now. For this game, give me the O’s to get the win because of their success in late game situations.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
TBD vs. Max Scherzer (12-11, 2.90) – 7:05 PM, MASN
As of right now, the O’s have yet to name a starter for Wednesday night’s game. If they were to follow the way their rotation has gone, a name to watch could be rookie Tyler Wilson (2-2, 3.72 ERA). The 25-year-old right-hander made his return to the rotation against the Rays on September 18. In that game, he went 4.1 innings, gave up six runs on eight hits, struck out one, and walked two in a loss.
As for the Nationals, it is known that Max Scherzer will take the mound and fans saw some of the Scherzer from the first half in his last start. Back on Friday night, he went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out six, and walked three in a no-decision.
Yes, his last two outings have come against a Marlins team that is without Giancarlo Stanton, but there still was some progress. Other than the two-run homer by Christian Yelich in the first inning, Scherzer was composed and got out of some key jams. He did walk three batters, but the Nats’ ace has had six or more strikeouts in each of last six starts.
Back on July 12, Scherzer dominated the Orioles. He went 8.2 innings, gave up two runs (solo home runs by Adam Jones) on four hits, struck out seven, and walked none in a win. He is 4-1 in seven career starts against the O’s with a 3.59 ERA. Jones is 11-for-22 against him with two doubles, three home runs, and four RBI’s.
Advantage: Since we don’t know who will start for the O’s in this game, Scherzer does have the edge, but there were good signs from Scherzer in his last outing that suggest the Nats’ ace is back and he will look to end his season on a positive note. Nationals get the win here and they take two out of three games in the series.
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