Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats Vs. Phillies (9/25-9/27)
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
During round two of the Beltway series, the Washington Nationals (78-74) lost all three games against the Baltimore at home as their postseason hopes continue to diminish by the day. For the first time this year, Bryce Harper did not pick up a hit in three consecutive games, but the story of the series was the bullpen and its failures to get the key outs in big spots.
On Thursday afternoon, Blake Treinen gave up the game-winning two-run homer against Matt Wieters in the top of the eighth. One night before that, Jonathan Papelbon was thrown out of the game in the top of the ninth for intentionally hitting Manny Machado, who had hit what ended up being the game-winning two run home run against Max Scherzer in the top of the seventh. Today, Papelbon was suspended three games by Major League Baseball for hitting Machado, but he is appealing the punishment:
Nationals RHP Jonathan Papelbon suspended 3 games, fined for intentionally throwing at Orioles’ Manny Machado on Wednesday. He will appeal.
— MLB (@MLB) September 25, 2015
With ten games left in the regular season, the Nats’ tragic number is down to three games as the Mets inch closer and closer to winning the NL East title. Despite postseason baseball not looking likely, the Nationals need to try to end this disappointing season on somewhat of a good note. They will try to do that tonight when they begin a three game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (57-96).
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In the last series between these two teams at Citizens Bank Park (September 14-16), the Nats swept the Phillies by a combined score of 24-9. Washington leads the season series between the two teams, 11-5. Since that series, the Phillies have lost five of their last six games to the Marlins and Braves. This month, Philadelphia is 5-16 in 21 games, which is the worst record of any team in the game.
While it’s been all bad for the Phillies on the field, their interim manager, Pete Mackanin, had his contract extended for the 2016 season earlier this week, thus removing the interim tag.
First baseman Ryan Howard has been out since September 14 because of a knee injury and he is trying to get back to playing games before the season is over. Even with Howard in the lineup, Philadelphia has scored the second fewest runs in baseball this month (74).
When it comes to the Phillies’ pitching staff, the results have been just as bad. As the organization gives young pitchers such as Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Alec Asher a chance to get valuable Major League experience going into 2016, the club’s starters’ ERA of 5.33 is the worst in baseball.
Let’s take a look to see who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups this weekend:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Jerad Eickhoff (1-3, 3.16 ERA) vs. Jordan Zimmermann (13-8, 3.49) – 7:05 PM ET, broadcast on MASN2
Tonight, the Washington Nationals will see Eickhoff for the first time. Eickhoff was one of the prospects who was dealt before the trade deadline from Texas to Philly in the Cole Hamels trade. He made his Major League debut on August 21 against the Miami Marlins and has shown good signs of why the Phillies traded for him.
In five of his six career starts, the 25-year-old right-hander has given up three runs or fewer. In his last outing against the Braves on September 19, Eickhoff went seven innings, gave up no runs on five hits, struck out five, and walked two in a no-decision. According to Fangraphs, Eickhoff has an average velocity on his fastball of 91 miles per hour to go with a slider, curveball, and changeup.
Tonight could also mark the final home start for Jordan Zimmermann in his Nats career, if he chooses to leave via free agency this winter. Zimmermann has not recorded a loss in seven consecutive outings and is coming off a good outing against the Marlins on September 19.
In that game, Zimmermann went six innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out seven, and walked one on 95 pitches in a win. He struggled with his command at times, but was able to put together a quality outing. The 29-year-old right-hander has held opponents to a .214 batting average in his last four starts.
Against the Phillies this season, Zimmermann is 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA in two starts. Back on September 14, he gave up six runs on seven hits over six innings as he was not able to hold a 6-2 Nats lead. Cody Asche (.247, 11 HR, 33 RBI’s) is 6-for-15 against him with a home run and three RBI’s in his career.
Advantage: I expect the Nats fans to give Zimmermann a good ovation tonight at Nats Park and this will be the kind of game where Zimmermann will like to end the year on a good note. Of course, it will be interesting to see how he handles the stiff neck that has bothered him and if the offense can adjust against Eickhoff during the game. With that being said, give me the Nationals to get this win.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Nola (6-2, 3.84) vs. Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.81) – 4:05 PM, MASN2
The Nats will see Aaron Nola for the second time this season and they were able to have a great night against him the first time around. Back on September 14, Nola went five innings, gave up six runs on nine hits, struck out eight, and walked one in a no-decision. During that game, Nola gave up three home runs, which is the most he has given up in any of his 12 outings this year. Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 that night with one of those home runs.
However, one thing you have to give the 22-year-old credit for is the ability to bounce back after a bad outing. In his last start against the Braves on September 20, Nola went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out four, and walked three in a no-decision. The key in that game was that he induced 12 groundball outs, the most in any start this year.
As for Stephen Strasburg, this will be his first start since winning NL co-player of the week this week along with Harper. Since returning from the disabled list on August 8, Strasburg has had the most dominant stretch of his young career. He comes into tomorrow night’s game giving up four total runs over his last 22.1 innings.
In his last three starts, the 27-year-old right-hander has struck out 37 batters. He is three strikeouts behind his teammate, Max Scherzer, for the most K’s of any pitcher this month. He has a 1.61 ERA in those three outings and has held opponents to a .152 batting average.
Against the Phillies this season, Strasburg is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA in four starts, but the Philly lineup has to remember how dominant he was last time. Back on September 15, Strasburg went eight innings, gave up one hit, struck out 14 batters, and walked one in a win. Jeff Francoeur (.256, 12 HR, 43 RBI’s) is 2-for-8 against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
Advantage: It will be interesting to see how Nola adjusts to facing this Nationals’ lineup the second time around and I think he will put up a better showing tomorrow. However, Strasburg has been dominant this month. While he probably won’t throw another one-hitter, he will find a way to get another win.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Harang (6-15, 4.93) vs. Gio Gonzalez (11-8, 3.94) – 1:35 PM, MASN2
When you look at Aaron Harang’s numbers, he is coming off a good outing against the Marlins in his last start. Back on September 22 against the Marlins, the 37-year-old right-hander went seven innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, struck out three, and walked two in a win. However, the right-hander has given up four runs or more in six of his last starts and two of his six wins this season are against Miami.
Over his last 10 starts, Harang is 2-4 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents have been hitting .317 against him. On the road, he is 3-7 with a 5.28 ERA, but he does have a win at Nats Park this season. His 15 losses are tied for second in the majors, one fewer than Shelby Miller of the Atlanta Braves. Against the Nationals this year, Harang is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three outings, but he hasn’t faced the Nats since June 26. Harper is 10-for-22 against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
Gio Gonzalez will be going up against Harang and he will try to rebound after the bad outing he had against the Orioles on September 22. In that game, Gonzalez went 4.2 innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked two in the loss.
The key for Gonzalez going into this game is going to be whether or not he throws his fastball down in the zone to try to induce more groundball outs. Against the O’s, the Nats’ left-hander was only able to get hitters to hit into four groundouts. While the 30-year-old has struggled with his command this season, September has been a bad month for him as he has walked 11 batters in four starts. His high this season in any month was 12, back in June.
Against the Phillies this season, Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts. Back on September 16, Gonzalez went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits, and struck out a season high 12 batters in a win over Philadelphia. Darin Ruf (.232, 9 HR, 30 RBI’s) is 8-for-21 against Gonzalez in his career with three home runs and eight RBI’s.
Advantage: While Nats’ fans have to worry about the bullpen blowing one of the games in this series, this pitching matchup favors the Nats when you consider Harang has had a bad season. Gonzalez’s lack of command might cause him to give up more runs than usual, but I like the Nats to get the sweep in this series.
Next: District Daily: Danny Espinosa Out For Season With Hamstring Injury