Washington Nationals Series Preview: Nats At Braves (9/29-10/1)

By Ricky Keeler |

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Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Nationals (80-76) finished up their final few home games this weekend and while they did go 2-2 against the Phillies and Reds, it was more bad than good for the Nats as they were eliminated from the postseason and had some clubhouse drama as well. In the eighth inning of Sunday’s loss, Bryce Harper flew out to left and Jonathan Papelbon yelled at him for not hustling. Then, Papelbon went and grabbed Harper’s throat during a fight. The team has suspended Papelbon for the remainder of the season.

With six games left in what has been a disappointing 2015 season, the Nats will look to finish the year off on somewhat of a winning note on this road trip and try to get their young players some playing time that could play a factor in the 2016 season. First up, it’s a three game series against the Atlanta Braves (62-94), a team that the Nats are 13-3 against this season.

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It’s been a rough rebuilding year for Fredi Gonzalez and company. Since August 1, the Braves are 16-37 and they are coming off a series in which they lost all three games to the Marlins. Coming into this matchup with Washington, Atlanta could be without one of their key players, Freddie Freeman (.280, 18 HR, 66 RBI’s). Freeman has been battling a wrist injury, but he is in the lineup tonight.

Even though Freeman has only played in 113 games, he still leads the team in home runs and RBI’s. Atlanta’s offense has scored the fewest runs and had the lowest slugging percentage in baseball this season. One player to watch is third baseman Hector Olivera. Olivera, who was acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, has 11 RBI’s this month and eight hits in his last five games.

Due to the Braves starting a ton of young pitchers, they have had to go through their fair share of growing pains. Atlanta’s team ERA of 5.33 is the second highest in baseball this month (Oakland A’s – 6.64). Plus, one of their starting pitchers, Shelby Miller, has gone 24 starts without recording a win.

Let’s take a look at who has the edge in each of the three pitching matchups in this series:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Tanner Roark (4-6, 4.76 ERA) vs. Matt Wisler (6-8, 5.40) – 7:10 PM ET, broadcast on MASN

Since taking over for Joe Ross in the starting rotation on September 4, Roark has not been able to record a win in four starts. In his last start against the Orioles on September 24, Roark went five innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out one, and walked two on 82 pitches in a no-decision.

The 28-year-old right-hander will be looking to go deep into this game as he has yet to go more than five innings or throw more than 82 pitches in his four starts this month. Against the Braves on September 4, Roark went 4.1 innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out one, and walked three in a no-decision. If Roark wants to have a good chance at making the 2016 rotation, he’s going to have to put up a good performance against a sub-par lineup.

In 11 games (six starts) in his career against Atlanta, Roark is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and he was 1-0 in three starts at Turner Field last season (2.89 ERA). A.J. Pierzynski is 3-for-4 against Roark lifetime with one double and three RBI’s.

While It’s been a mediocre rookie season for Wisler, he did bounce back against the Mets to pick up his first win since July 26 against the Cardinals. In that game on September 22, he went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out eight (a career-high) and walked one.

Wisler, who was one of the main pieces in the Craig Kimbrel trade this offseason, is 3-7 in his last 13 games with a 6.44 ERA. However, the 23-year-old has shown some good signs in September. Even though he is 1-3 this month with a 5.96 ERA, the opponents’ batting average of .280 is the second lowest any team has had against him in a month this year (.252 in July).

Against the Nationals this season, Wisler is 1-2 in four games (three starts) with a 7.62 ERA. His last outing against Washington was two hitless innings in relief on September 6. Clint Robinson is 2-for-5 against him with three RBI’s this year.

Advantage: While the Nationals have had some success against Wisler this season, Roark has not been able to give the Nats more than five innings in any start. If that trend continues, I will take the Braves in this one because of the Nats’ short-handed bullpen without Drew Storen or Papelbon. Braves squeak out a win.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Zimmermann (13-9, 3.68) vs. Williams Perez (6-6, 5.04) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN

In what was likely his final home start as a member of the Nationals, Jordan Zimmermann once again ran into issues with giving up the home run. While one of the home runs he gave up to the Phillies was an inside-the-park grand slam on September 25, it still didn’t change the stat line. He went five innings, gave up six runs on six hits, struck out six batters, and walked two.

With this being Zimmermann’s final start of the 2015 season in all likelihood, he is 4.1 innings away from throwing 200 innings for the second time in his career, but he has also given up a career-high 24 home runs. In 14 starts since the All-Star Break, Zimmermann has given up 16 home runs. But, he has given up two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts.

Against the Braves this season, the 29-year-old right-hander has been excellent, going 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in five outings. He is 3-0 in his career at Turner Field with a 1.86 ERA (four starts). Nick Markakis is 9-for-27 against Zimmermann with one home run in his career.

Perez is another one of the Braves pitchers that made his Major League debut this season (May 8 against the Nats). After giving up eight runs against the Yankees on August 28, the 24-year-old right-hander has given up 12 total runs in his last five outings. Against the Mets on September 23, Perez went six innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, struck out two, and walked one in a no-decision.

Despite Perez’s recent success, his arsenal of pitchers has not fooled opposing hitters too often. Since the All-Star Break, teams are hitting .328 against Perez and he has a 6.82 ERA in his last 11 starts. Plus, this season, he has 5.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

Against the Nats on May 8, Perez came out of the bullpen and gave up four runs in 1/3 of an inning. Bryce Harper, who is hitting .426 with six home runs and 15 RBI’s against Atlanta this season, hit a three-run homer against him in that game.

Advantage: Even though Zimmermann’s home finale did not go as planned, I would expect the veteran will want to make his possible last start in a Nats uniform count. Perez’s stuff is very hittable and I would expect Harper to have a big game in this one. Nationals get the win in convincing fashion.

Next: Thursday's Matchup

Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Stephen Strasburg (10-7, 3.63) vs. Ryan Weber (0-2, 5.91) – 7:10 PM ET, MASN

For Stephen Strasburg, he is heading into the offseason with a lot of confidence. In his last start against the Phillies on September 26, Strasburg went eight innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out 13 batters, and walked one, but he ended up only getting a no-decision.

Over his last four outings, the 27-year-old right-hander has given up only five runs in 30.1 innings, has struck out 50 batters, and only walked four. Strasburg has 85 strikeouts to just seven walks in nine starts since the All-Star Break and has held opposing hitters to a .170 batting average. That being said, he does have a 4.33 ERA away from Nats Park this season (3.07 ERA at home).

Strasburg’s lone start against the Braves this season occurred on June 23 at Nats Park. He went five innings, gave up no runs on four hits, struck out six batters, and walked one in a win. He is 5-7 in 18 career starts against Atlanta with a 4.17 ERA, including a 5.60 ERA in eight starts at Turner Field. If Freddie Freeman plays, he is 12-for-28 against Strasburg with three home runs and nine RBI’s.

Thursday night will be the first time that the Nats have seen Ryan Weber this season as the 25-year-old rookie is making only the fifth start of his career. Weber was a 22^nd round selection by the Braves in the 2009 MLB Draft. In his last start against the Marlins on September 25, he went seven runs on nine hits, walked one, and did not strike out a batter in the loss.

Weber has only averaged 77.5 pitches per outing and has not been able to strikeout many hitters. He has nine strikeouts in four games, but five of those came in one start against the Phillies on September 13. According to Fangraphs, the right-hander has an average velocity of 89.5 miles per hour on his fastball to go with a curveball and changeup.

Advantage: While it will be interesting to see how the Nats offense is going to adjust to Weber, it’s difficult to pick against Strasburg when he is having some dominant outings. Even though Turner Field has been his own house of horrors in his career, I expect Strasburg to put together another dominant outing and for the Nats to take two out of three games in this series.

Next: Rivero Should Be Considered For Prominent Bullpen Role In 2016

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