Ranking the 2016 NL East: First Basemen
Over the last few weeks we have been ranking the NL East to find out who has the best player at each position. Today we continue our series by ranking NL East first basemen.
Throughout this month, we have begun our preview of the 2016 National League East by seeing which team has the best players at each position. In doing so, we hope to determine the overall strength of each team in the NL East to get a sense of how the division will play out in 2016. Keep in mind, if a player is fifth on a list, the team gets one point and if the player is first, that team gets five points. The points will be used in our final NL East ranking.
Last year, first base was one of the weakest positions in the NL East. There wasn’t a true dominant force at the position among any of the five teams in the division, and injuries hurt both the Nationals and the Braves at first base in 2015.
Nevertheless, there’s plenty of offensive potential at first base in the division. Freddie Freeman and Ryan Zimmerman are capable of being some of the best hitters in the game when they’re healthy. Ryan Howard had an illustrious career with the Phillies before entering a sharp decline in recent years, and Justin Bour and Lucas Duda put together solid seasons for the Marlins and Mets in 2015.
Without further ado, here are our 2016 NL East rankings for first basemen:
Next: No. 5
No. 5 Ryan Howard (Philadelphia Phillies)
A few years ago, there’s no doubt that Ryan Howard would have earned the No. 1 spot on our ranking. Now, however, the former MVP first baseman is in a steady decline. And while he was able to stay healthier and more productive in 2015 than in previous years, his numbers are still well below where they have been in the past.
Howard’s decline has been ongoing for several years now, and he probably won’t even start at first base all that much in 2016. Last season the Phillies implemented a platoon between Howard and Darin Ruf at first, and there’s a good chance they’ll do the same next season — despite the fact that they’ll be paying Howard $25 million in the last guaranteed year of his contract.
Last season, the three-time all-star hit .229 with 23 home runs and 77 RBIs. Howard played in just 129 games last season (24 fewer than he did in 2014) and his on-base percentage dropped 33 points.
His power appeared to surge in 2015 — hitting the same number of homers he hit in 2014 in 145 fewer plate appearances — but he saw a decline in several other offensive categories and in WAR.
At 36 years old, it’s unlikely that Howard will see a whole lot of improvement next season. But a solid season at first base could earn him a higher ranking on this list, and it could also earn him a short-term deal in free agency next offseason.
Next: No. 4
No. 4 Justin Bour (Miami Marlins)
Justin Bour played his first full season in the big leagues last year, appearing in 129 games for the Marlins. The 27-year-old first baseman batted .262 with 23 home runs and 73 RBIs.
It was a solid season for Bour, who spent six years in the minors before being called up in 2014. Last season he led the Marlins in RBIs and hit the second most home runs on the team. But, while Bour was solid at the plate, he was far from perfect.
A major part of Bour’s inconsistency at the plate was his struggles against left-handed pitching. All 23 of his homers last season came against right-handed pitching, and his inability to hit lefties could force the Marlins to platoon him at first base in 2016.
If Bour can be more consistent next season, however, he should be in for another solid year with the Marlins in 2016. Not only does the 27-year-old have a full season under his belt, but he’s also heading into Spring Training 20 lbs lighter than he did last season and should be in better shape to play a full season.
Next: No. 3
No. 3 Ryan Zimmerman (Washington Nationals)
Ryan Zimmerman is one of those players who can be among the best in the game when he’s at his best, and one of the worst when he’s not. And when he’s not at his best, it’s usually for one reason: injuries.
Injuries have hampered Zimmerman throughout his career, forcing him to miss significant time on the disabled list in each of the last two seasons. Zimmerman played in just 95 games last season and 61 games in 2014.
Last season the veteran was dealing with plantar fasciitis all year long. Things were supposed to be different for Zimmerman in 2015 since his move to first base removed nearly all workload from his right shoulder, which is where most of his injuries have stemmed from in the last few years. But the foot injury kept him out for most of the season, and his absence was greatly felt by the Nationals’ lineup.
While Zimmerman has been injury prone in recent years, there’s no doubt he can be extremely productive when he’s healthy. The first baseman hit .269 with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs last season. Averaged out over 150 games, Zimmerman’s numbers would’ve translated to 25 home runs with 115 RBIs.
At 31 years old, Zimmerman can still be a very productive part of Nationals’ lineup. A good year from Zimmerman in 2016 could be crucial for the Nationals to return to the postseason for October, and it might even help Bryce Harper have an even better season at the plate. One thing’s for certain, Zimmerman has to stay healthy for any of that to happen.
Next: No. 2
No. 2 Lucas Duda (New York Mets)
Lucas Duda had one of the best seasons of his career in 2014, and the argument can be made that he deserves the No. 1 spot in this ranking.
Right now, it’s likely a tossup between him and Freeman for the top spot in the NL East, and Duda could have the edge because of his solid 2015 campaign and the fact that he helped lead the Mets to their first World Series in decades. But based on the success Freeman’s already had in his young career, he’s still considered by many to be the best first baseman in the NL East.
Nevertheless, Duda’s accomplishments in 2015 can’t be ignored. In 135 games, Duda hit .244 with 27 home runs and 73 RBIs. He had the second-highest offensive WAR among NL East first basemen last season and also led the division’s first basemen with 27 home runs (fifth-highest among National League first basemen).
Duda’s numbers were down from a year ago, when he had the best season of his career. The veteran first baseman hit .253 with 30 home runs and 92 RBIs in 2014.
But Duda still had a solid season in 2015 and was a reliable force in the Mets’ lineup. If Duda and the Mets once again excel in 2016, Duda may very well end the season as the best first baseman in the NL East.
Next: No. 1
No. 1 Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves)
Since he emerged on the big league stage in 2011, Freddie Freeman has been the first baseman to beat in the NL East. He’s been an all-star twice and in parts of six seasons he’s averaged 22 homers and 91 RBIs.
Freeman’s best season was in 2013, when he hit .319 with 23 home runs and 109 RBIs. He was selected to the NL all-star team that season and again in 2014, when he played in all 162 games.
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Injuries prevented Freeman from returning to his dominant form last season. He landed on the 15-day disabled list twice, once in June with a right wrist contusion and again in August with a strained right oblique. On the year, Freeman played in just 118 games, batting .276 with 18 home runs and 66 RBIs.
Despite his injury-shortened season, Freeman still posted the highest offensive WAR of any NL East first baseman. Of course, it doesn’t help Freeman that the Braves are still rebuilding and he doesn’t have a whole lot of help in the lineup. But if Freeman can stay healthy, he’s shown time and time again that he can be both productive at the plate and a workhorse who can play every game in a season.
At 26 years old, Freeman will enter the third year of his 8-year, $135 million deal with the Braves in 2016. And if he can stay healthy all season long, there’s a good chance he’ll be the most productive first baseman in the NL East again next season.