Where Does The Washington Nationals’ Rotation Rank In The NL East?
Our NL East rankings continue by looking at the starting pitchers in this division.
Throughout the month of February, we have been looking at which team has the best players at each position. We only have two categories left on our list before we reveal our staff collaborative rankings. Today, we go the mound and look at the starting rotations around the NL East.
Heading into last season, the Washington Nationals were thought to have one of the best rotations in the last few years after they signed Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to go with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. However, the Nats’ starters ended up having a 3.70 ERA (sixth in the National League).
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This season, the Nats have Tanner Roark and Joe Ross/Bronson Arroyo filling out the back of the rotation in place of Zimmermann and Doug Fister. There weren’t many notable free agent pitchers joining the NL East this winter, but the one that did is Wei-Yin Chen, who signed a five-year deal with the Miami Marlins to be the number two starter behind Jose Fernandez.
By far, the story of last season was the New York Mets’ starting rotation. With all of their young pitching, they were able to have a 3.44 rotation (fourth in the NL) with talented young arms such as Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz.
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As for the Braves and Phillies, they will look to their young pitching to help speed up the rebuilding process. Both teams did make small free agent acquisitions as Atlanta signed Bud Norris and the Phillies signed Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton.
Last year, our top five rotations before the season began from 5-1 were the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Mets, and Nationals. How do we rank them before 2016?
Next: Number 5
Philadelphia Phillies
In 2015, the Phillies had the second worst ERA of any starting rotation in the National League at 5.23. Only the Rockies were worse than them with a 5.77 ERA. It’s a new-look Phillies’ rotation from years past with Cliff Lee still a free agent and Cole Hamels being traded at last year’s deadline to the Texas Rangers.
Last year, there were guys like Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams, and Sean O’Sullivan in the rotation during the first month of the season. This year, there is a lot more youth in the starting five. Philadelphia did add a couple veteran free agents to their rotation this winter. They signed Jeremy Hellickson, who went 9-12 with a 4.62 ERA with the Diamondbacks last season and Charlie Morton, who was 9-9 with a 4.81 ERA with the Pirates. Also, they have Matt Harrison (who they acquired in the Hamels deal), but he has a back injury that could cause him to miss the whole season:
Klentak: Matt Harrison will not be at camp. He is not expected to pitch this season. Phillies have excused him from camp.
— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) February 17, 2016
However, the story of the Phillies’ rotation this season is going to be their youth. Aaron Nola, who was their first round pick in 2014, went 6-2 in 13 starts last year with a 3.95 ERA. Also, keep an eye on Jerad Eickhoff, who had a 2.65 ERA in his eight starts (3-3 record). However, Eickhoff (also acquired in the Hamels deal) fractured his right thumb in a bunting drill.
The story for me to watch in this rotation is how do a couple of the former Astros do? In the Ken Giles trade, the Phillies acquired Vincent Velasquez, who made seven starts with Houston last year during their playoff run and they acquired former number one pick, Mark Appel. While Appel will likely start the year at triple-A Lehigh Valley, he could finally get his big league debut this season, if he stays healthy.
Next: Number Four
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are another team entering a rebuilding season in 2016, but they have a lot of young arms to choose from. If you look at their projected rotation (according to Roster Resource), four of their five starters are age 25 and younger. Last season, Atlanta was tenth in the NL in starters’ ERA (4.27)
Julio Teheran is at the top of the rotation, but is coming off a down year in 2015. He went 11-8 with a 4.04 ERA in 33 starts and had a FIP of 4.40. But, with a young rotation, Atlanta should hope to get the most innings out of him this year. After Teheran, there are some talented arms to keep an eye on. Matt Wisler, who made his Major League debut last season, went 8-8 with a 4.71 ERA last year, but he had a 5.29 ERA in his final 15 games of the year.
As far as free agency goes, they signed Bud Norris to a one-year deal as Norris tries to bounce back from a bad 2015. He was 3-11 with a 6.72 ERA with the Orioles and Padres last season. They have also added veteran pitchers such Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick on minor league deals.
While Atlanta doesn’t have that legitimate ace at the top of their rotation and Shelby Miller is now in Arizona, but they have some young arms in the minors. Some of the names to watch are Mike Foltynewicz, Casey Kelly, Tyrell Jenkins (acquired with Miller from St. Louis in 2014), Aaron Blair (traded to Atlanta in the Miller deal this winter), and Sean Newcomb, who was acquired in the Andrelton Simmons deal (spent the year at double-A last season). Atlanta has the pitching prospect depth, but they are looking to find some frontline starters to build around in the future.
Next: Number Three
Miami Marlins
As we move further down the countdown, we now reach the teams with true aces in their rotation. Last season, Miami’s rotation ERA was 4.25 (ninth in the National League). However, that number was higher because of the abbreviated season Jose Fernandez had. The 23-year-old, who was the subject of some trade rumors this winter, didn’t make his first start last year until July 2. That being said, he was 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA in the 11 starts that he did make.
To help upgrade the rotation, Miami signed Wei-Yin Chen to a five-year deal worth $80 million with an opt-out after year two and a vesting option for a sixth season. Chen, who will be 31 in July, is a left-hander that brings stability to the front end of their rotation. He has made 30+ starts in three of his last four seasons and his ERA has decreased in each of those years (3.34 last season).
The key to success for Don Mattingly’s rotation is going to be who emerges at the back end. They did sign Edwin Jackson this winter to a one-year deal to go with Tom Koehler and Jarred Cossart. Plus, Miami does have a pitcher to watch. Nicolino threw the second most innings (63) of any Miami pitcher in the second half, behind Koehler. However, in the ten starts he made, he only had 19 strikeouts.
If Miami is going to contend for the division title, they need to get some production from the back of their rotation and Fernandez will need to stay healthy, despite being on an innings limit this season.
Next: Number Two
Washington Nationals
When the Washington Nationals signed Max Scherzer last offseason, everyone thought he would put up some good numbers, but nobody thought he would threw two no-hitters and finish second in the National League in strikeouts (276). However, the rest of the rotation saw its fair share of struggles despite leading the NL in starters’ strikeouts (919).
Stephen Strasburg had a dominant finish to the season, but his first half was plagued by injuries. Jordan Zimmermann (now in Detroit) had his ERA go up a full run from 2014 (2.66 to 3.66) and Doug Fister (now in Houston) battled a forearm injury early in the year and was later demoted to the bullpen.
The Nats didn’t go out and add a prominent free agent starter this winter. Instead, they have inserted Tanner Roark back in the rotation as he tries to duplicate his 14-win season from 2014. Plus, the Nats could either go with second-year pitcher Joe Ross or Bronson Arroyo (on a minor league deal) as the fifth starter.
Scherzer should have another strong season, but the Nationals will need Stephen Strasburg to have a great season in the final year of his deal and for Gio Gonzalez to stay consistent. Gonzalez’s ERA has gone up each of the last four seasons. Another aspect to watch in this rotation is how many starts star prospect Lucas Giolito could make this season? The Nats don’t have the best rotation in the division, but there still is a good amount of talent there.
Next: Number One
New York Mets
The Mets’ rotation tops our list after the dominant season they had last year. Their starters finished fourth in the NL in ERA, third in strikeouts, and third in WHIP (1.15). When New York got to the postseason, their starters went 7-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 14 games.
The difference from last year to this year for Terry Collins’ rotation is that his starters will not be on an innings limit this season. The story of the stretch run last year was Matt Harvey and how many innings he was throwing, but Harvey (13-8, 2.71 ERA in 2015) still managed to have a 2.19 ERA in the second half of the year (best of any Mets’ pitcher).
As for deGrom, the All-Star was 14-8 with a 2.54 ERA (fourth in the NL) in 30 starts. The Mets also had two young starters emerge in Noah Syndergaarrd (9-7, 3.24 with ten K’s per nine innings) and Steven Matz (4-0, 2.27 in six starts).
To begin the season, Bartolo Colon will be the team’s fifth starter as Zack Wheeler still recovers from Tommy John surgery. Wheeler hasn’t pitched since 2014 when he went 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA in 32 starts. Wheeler could be the X-Factor in this rotation and he would only be the five starter.
Earlier today, Bryce Harper told the media that the Mets are the team to beat. One reason for that is because of their pitching and Harper knows firsthand considering he has yet to figure out how to have success against Harvey (0-for-20, seve strikeouts). If the Mets can keep that rotation healthy this season, they should be the NL East winners once again.
Next: Ranking The NL East 2016: Catchers
We want to hear from you. How would you rank the starting rotations in the NL East? Which pitchers are you looking forward to seeing in this division and where do the Nats stack up in your opinion?