Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Series Preview (4/11-4/14)
After sweeping the Braves at Turner Field in the opening series, the Nationals now host the Braves for four games this week
Just like the end of spring training, inclement weather continued to follow the Washington Nationals this past weekend. The Nats’ series against the Miami Marlins was abbreviated to two games instead of three because of the brutally cold weather on Saturday. In the end, the Nats managed a split of the two games and are now 3-1 to begin the season.
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The Nats’ six game homestand will conclude this week when they host the Atlanta Braves for a four game series. These two teams met at Turner Field for the first two games of the year. The Nationals were able to win both games in the series, but the margin of victory in the two contests was no more than two runs.
As for the Braves, they are one of two teams that are winless in baseball (Minnesota Twins- 0-6). Against the Cardinals this weekend at Turner Field, they were outscored 31-13 and gave up a combined 24 runs in the final two games of the three game series.
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In addition to getting blown out in all three games vs. St. Louis, they will be without one of their prized offseason acquisitions for this series. Ender Inciarte, who was acquired in the Shelby Miller trade this winter, is now on the 15-day disabled list because of a strain in his left hamstring. They have called up one of their top outfield prospects, Mallex Smith, to replace his spot on the 25-man roster.
Before this series gets underway tonight, check out my breakdown of the four scheduled pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Bud Norris (0-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (0-0, 2.57) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Norris, along with Teheran, was one of the two pitchers who faced the Nats in that opening series. The 31-year-old surprised a lot of people in that start against Stephen Strasburg back on April 6. He went seven innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out four batters, and walked two on 98 pitches (59 strikes) in the loss.
He shut out the Nats for the first six innings, but the aggressive baserunning by Ryan Zimmerman and the clutch hitting of Matt den Dekker off the bench led to the Nationals’ 3-1 win. The one problem for Norris in this game was the lack of first pitch strikes (15 first pitch strikes out of 28 batters).
Despite Norris’ success against the Nationals last time out, remember that he is 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA in eight career games against them and has given up 14 earned runs over his last 18.2 innings vs. the Nats. Ryan Zimmerman is 6-for-17 against Norris with three home runs and nine RBI’s.
As for Scherzer, he was supposed to start yesterday’s game against the Marlins, but everyone got pushed back because of the postponement on Saturday. The Nats’ ace did pitch on Opening Day against the Braves and had a strong start. He went seven innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out seven, and walked two on 104 pitches (72 strikes).
In that outing, Scherzer’s only two mistakes came when he gave up a solo home run to Freddie Freeman in the bottom of the first and a solo shot to Adonis Garcia in the bottom of the fourth.
If there’s one thing that Scherzer has to work on, it’s not giving up those home runs after allowing 17 of them in his last 15 starts of 2015. A.J. Pierzynski is 11-for-39 (.282) against Scherzer with one home run and seven RBI’s.
Prediction: As I mentioned earlier, it was a surprise to see Norris pitch well against the Nats last time out, but the Braves made some great plays defensively in that game. I expect the Nats to have a better approach against Norris this time and for Scherzer to have another great outing in a win.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jhoulys Chacin vs. Gio Gonzalez – 7:05 p.m, MASN2
This offseason, the Braves signed Chacin to a minor league deal. He has been in the majors since 2009 and has played with the Rockies and Diamondbacks over the course of his career. But, he only made five appearances with Arizona last season.
Back in 2013, the 28-year-old right-hander went 14-10 with a 3.47 ERA. While he hasn’t pitched in a Major League game this season, he did get one start at triple-A Gwinnett, where he gave up five hits and struck out seven over 7.2 innings in a win against Norfolk.
According to Fangraphs, Chacin had an average velocity of 88 miles per hour on his fastball and has a cutter, changeup, curveball, and slider in his arsenal. He is 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA in five starts against the Nats in his career. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-9 against him with two RBI’s.
As for Gonzalez, it will be interesting to see how he fares in this game as he has not pitched against Major League competition in a long time. His last start in spring training was back on March 27 against the Braves when he went six innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, and struck out four.
The key for Gonzalez in this game is going to be consistency. Dusty Baker has gone back to his original plan before the season began of putting Gonzalez in between Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg because Gonzalez doesn’t consistently go deep into games. Plus his command is still a concern when you consider he had 12 walks in six spring outings.
Against the Braves last year, Gonzalez was dominant as he was 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA, giving up only two runs in 13 innings of work. Freddie Freeman is 9-for-29 (.310) with two home runs and ten RBI’s against him.
Prediction: While I do think Gonzalez has a decent outing, it’s tough to expect much when you consider the long layoff he will have in between starts. However, this might be a game where the bullpen comes up big for the Nats and gets the win.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Matt Wisler (0-0, 5.40) vs. Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 1.50) – 7:05 p.m, MASN2
Wisler is in his second full season in the Majors after being traded to Atlanta from the Padres before the 2015 season in the Craig Kimbrel. Last season, the 23-year-old right-hander went 8-8 with a 4.71 in 20 games and he went 3-7 over his final 11 starts.
In his first start of this season against the Cardinals on Friday, Wisler went 6.2 innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked one on 91 pitches (61 strikes). However, he got the no-decision as the Cardinals rallied from a 4-0 deficit.
Against the Nationals last year, he was 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five games (four starts). The problem for Wisler was his command as he walked 11 Nats over the course of 20 innings. In those outings last season, Clint Robinson was 2-for-8, but he had three RBI’s.
Strasburg made his 2016 debut last Wednesday against the Braves at Turner Field. While he didn’t have a high strikeout total (four), the important thing was that he got out of some jams early and held Atlanta off the scoreboard for most of the night. He went six innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out four, and walked three on 88 pitches (57 strikes). Plus, he got some help from some good plays defensively by Michael Taylor.
The one thing that was interesting about Strasburg’s last start was it appeared that he had a new pitch in his arsenal, a slider. Plus, in that outing, he passed Jordan Zimmermann, his former teammate, to become the pitcher with the most career strikeouts in the short history of the franchise.
If you include his two outings against the Braves last year, Strasburg has given up just that one run to Atlanta. Freeman is 12-for-31 (.387) against him with three home runs and nine RBI’s.
Prediction: It will be interesting to watch how Strasburg continues to use his slider as the season progresses. I would expect the Nationals to work the count against Wisler and pick up some early runs as they get Strasburg his second win of the young season.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Julio Teheran (0-1, 5.40) vs. Tanner Roark (0-1, 6.75) – 4:05 p.m ET, MASN
After some strong success on Opening Day against the Nats, Teheran had some struggles on Saturday against St. Louis. In his second start of the season, the 25-year-old right-hander went just four innings, gave up five runs (four earned) on six hits, struck out four, and walked four on 89 pitches in what ended up being a 12-2 loss.
When you think back to that Opening Day start against Scherzer, the only two mistakes Teheran made were the two home runs he gave up to Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. Otherwise, he had a strong outing as he went six innings, gave up two runs on five hits, and struck out four in a no-decision.
The early problem for Teheran has been his seven walks in two games. His 73 walks last season were the fourth most in the National League. Harper is now 11-for-25 (.440) with three doubles, four home runs, and six RBI’s against him.
Roark’s first start this season was interrupted in between the second and third inning due to about a 90 minute rain delay. In that outing against the Marlins on Thursday, Roark only went four innings, gave up four runs (three earned) on nine hits, struck out three, and walked three on 99 pitches (60 strikes).
The Marlins did not get an extra-base hit against him, but they found a way to get the key hits in the first inning when they put three runs on the board. He came back out after that delay but gave up another two-out RBI single, which put Miami ahead 4-3.
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In 12 games (seven starts) against the Braves, Roark is 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA. He was 2-0 with a 2.63 in four starts back in 2014. Pierzynski is 6-for-7 against him with two home runs and five RBI’s.
Prediction: The Braves enter this series winless, but I think they find a way to get the win in this game. I was impressed by Teheran on Opening Day despite giving up the two home runs. Right now, I think he has a similar outing and gives Atlanta their first win of the season, but the Nationals take three out of four in the series.