Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Series Preview (4/15-4/17)
After sweeping the Braves in a four-game series, the Philadelphia Phillies are next for the Nats at Citizens Bank Park
Yes, the Nationals’ 7-1 start is one of the best in team history. Washington just wrapped up a four-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves at home. It was a great series that showed off the potential of this lineup and the consistency of the starting pitching.
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But don’t over-celebrate. There likely won’t be anything of substance on the team until April 29 when the Nats visit the St. Louis Cardinals. The first month’s schedule features only five games against non-division opponents, and three of those are against the struggling Twins. Washington doesn’t play the co-favorite New York Mets until May 17.
A three-game series against Philidelphia begins tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Washington came on top of the head-to-head matchup last season with a 12-7 record. The Phillies are a rebuilding squad expected to be at the bottom of the barrel along with the Braves this season. However, they’ve won three in a row and own a 5-5 record thus far.
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Potential star third baseman Maikel Franco is batting .333 with two home runs and five RBI. The 23-year-old is one of their brightest offensive player along with center-fielder Odubel Herrera (.242, one home run, five RBI’s through ten games).
Vincent Velasquez, who was acquired from the Houston Astros via a trade this winter, pitched maybe the best game so far in 2016 on Thursday against the San Diego Padres: A complete game three-hitter with 16 strikeouts. Fortunately, for the Nats, he isn’t pitching in this series.
The first of the 19 games ahead between these teams features Joe Ross and Jeremy Hellickson on the mound. I’ll break down that matchup and the two following in the slides ahead.
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Joe Ross (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs Jeremy Hellickson (1-0, 1.54 ERA)- 7:05 PM ET on MASN
For Jackie Robinson day, all players and coaches will be sporting the #42 jerseys in honor of Robinson with no names on the back of the jerseys.
Hellickson has looked good in his first two starts for the Phillies. In his last start against the Mets at Citi Field, he allowed just two runs on three hits in 5.2 innings. The Phillies signed Hellickson to a one-year, $7 million deal this winter to provide a veteran presence in an otherwise young rotation.
Hellickson spent five years in Tampa Bay and one in Arizona before coming to Philadelphia. He was fantastic in his first three years with the Rays. He won AL Rookie of the year in 2011 and had 3.17 combined ERA with 274 strikeouts. He has since fallen off, pitching to a 4.86 ERA from 2013-2015.
He’s not a hard-thrower when you consider he has an average fastball velocity of 89 miles per hour and an average slider velocity of 83 mph (according to Fangraphs). He hasn’t had much success against the Nationals in his career as a result (6.97 ERA in two starts). Bryce Harper is 2-for-3 against him with a double and three walks.
As for Ross, he had a strong first outing against the Marlins as he went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out five, and walked two on 97 pitches in the win despite a rocky first inning.
The Phillies offense has scored just 29 runs over the first 10 games of the 2016 season, an average of just under three runs per game. Ryan Howard, Franco, and Cesar Hernandez will need to provide some offense for Philly to have a chance in this game and this series.
It will be interesting to watch how the Phillies approach Ross when you consider that the Nats’ 22-year-old right-hander did not face them last season.
Prediction: Hellickson is unable to string together three great starts to begin this year. The Nats struggle to score early, but get runs in the mid-innings and force the Phillies’ mediocre bullpen to take over the game. Ross will dominate once again in a win.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Max Scherzer (1-0, 4.15 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (0-1, 3.21 ERA)- 7:05 PM ET on MASN
Aaron Nola is the brightest young pitcher in the Phillies’ organization, and may just be the best overall. His first start this season against the Reds went well, but ended up in a loss after the Phillies’ bullpen imploded. The 22-year old went seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run on four hits. He struck out a career-high eight while walking none.
He pitched very well in his debut season: a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts with 68 strikeouts. Like Hellickson, he doesn’t throw at high velocity (average velocity of 92 mph according to Fangraphs), but has great control and spots his pitches very well.
Nola spent just two years in the minors before getting called up last year. He was just fantastic, putting up a 2.73 overall ERA with 137 strikeouts. He was Philadelphia’s top pitching prospect for all of his two years in the minors, and has certainly lived up to the hype thus far.
The good news for this series is that the Nats had great success against him last year. In two starts (ten innings pitched), Nola had a 5.40 ERA, gave up three home runs, and Nats’ hitters had a .348 batting average against last year. Jayson Werth was 2-for-5 against him last year with a home run and four RBI’s.
Max Scherzer will be on the mound for the Nationals. He pitched like his normal self on Opening Day against the Braves, but ran into some trouble last Monday, also against Atlanta. He gave up four earned runs on six hits and walked three over six innings, but he picked up the win. There isn’t any reason to worry though considering Scherzer has the track record of an ace and he has had good success against Philadelphia.
In his 20 career starts against the Phillies, he’s given up just 12 earned runs. Last season, he was 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts, striking out 30 batters, and only walking three. Ryan Howard is 1-for-13 against Scherzer with a double and eight strikeouts.
Prediction: Scherzer will dominate, but this one will be close. I think Nola has the potential for a good performance, but this game will likely all depend on the Phillies’ bullpen considering how far Scherzer can go in games like this.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.23 ERA): 1:30 PM ET on MASN
Charlie Morton has been in the league since 2008, and pitched for Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and now Philadelphia. Nationals fans might remember him as the opposing pitcher for the Pirates in Stephen Strasburg‘s infamous debut.
He’s had decent success in his nine-year career but slowed down the past two season. After a 3.26 ERA in 2013 for the Pirates, he sputtered to a 3.72 and 4.81 in 2014 and 2015 respectively. The Phillies traded for him during the offseason for minor league pitcher David Whitehead.
He slots in as another veteran presence among a rotation of young arms. Since this season is more about individual performances of young prospects for Philadelphia instead of wins, he makes sense. His first start of 2016 was mediocre as he gave up six earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Reds.
However, he recovered in his second start just like the rest of the Phillies’ rotation. He shut out the Padres in 6.2 innings and gave up only three hits on 100 pitches in a win on Tuesday. That may be the best start of the year, though, as the Padres have already been shut out five times this year, including Morton’s start.
Morton is 2-4 with a 7.18 ERA in seven career starts against the Nats, including giving up nine runs in 2/3 of an inning last year. Jayson Werth is 4-for-12 against him with a home run and five RBI’s.
For the Nationals, Gio Gonzalez needs to focus on a low pitch count and continued focus and improved control on the mound. He showed dramatic jumps in those areas against the Braves this past Tuesday. He gave up just three hits in six innings pitched and walked just one on 94 pitches in a no-decision in his first start of the year.
Next: Reaction: Strasburg Once Again Shows Dominance
Against the Phillies last season, the left-hander was 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in four starts, but five of the eight runs he gave up were at Citizens Bank Park. Darin Ruf is 8-for-23 (.348) against Gonzalez with three home runs, nine RBI’s, and eight walks.
Prediction: If Gonzalez shows more improvement, that’s a great omen for this game as well as the rest of this season. The rotation would get a huge lift from a strong Gonzalez securing the back end. Again, the Nats offense just needs to score a couple runs against Morton and force the bullpen to arrive. I’m leaning towards yet another sweep.