Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins Series Preview (4/18-4/21)

The Washington Nationals travel down to Florida to begin a four game series against the Miami Marlins

While Sunday’s afternoon series finale was not what Washington Nationals fans wanted with Jonathan Papelbon blowing the save in the bottom of the tenth against the Phillies, the Nats still took two of three against the Philadelphia Phillies to improve their record to 9-2.

The story of the weekend was Bryce Harper as the reigning NL MVP homered in all three games in the series. He has now hit a home run in four straight games and in six straight games at Citizens Bank Park. Harper will look to keep his home run success up tonight when the Nats begin a four game series against the Miami Marlins (3-7) at Marlins Park.

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In their first series of the season, the Nationals and Marlins split the two games they played at Nats Park with the third game being postponed due to inclement weather. It was an interesting week for Don Mattingly’s team. They took two of three from the Mets at Citi Field. But, they were swept by the Braves at home (who began that series 0-9).

The problem for the Marlins is that they have not gotten much length from their starting pitching. Through ten games, Miami’s starting rotation has thrown 49.1 innings, which is the lowest of any team in the National League.

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While their offense has the fourth highest batting average in the NL (.274), they only have six home runs, which is the second lowest in the NL (Braves have the lowest with three). Two of them have come from Giancarlo Stanton (.205, two home runs, eight RBI’s).

Before this series begins tonight, here is my breakdown of the four pitching matchups:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

Tanner Roark (1-1, 2.45 ERA) vs.  Jose Fernandez (0-1, 5.06) – 7:05 p.m. ET, broadcast on MASN

In his last start, which was not interrupted by weather, Tanner Roark put up a quality outing against the Braves. He went seven innings, gave up no runs on four hits, struck out four, and walked three on 100 pitches in a win. While the walks were a bit high, he did throw 16 first pitch strikes to the 28 batters he faced.

It was definitely an improvement from his first start of the year at home against Miami. In the home opener, the right-hander went four innings, gave up four runs (three earned) on nine hits, struck out three, and walked three in a loss, but that start was interrupted because of rain. The interesting stat about Roark so far is that he has yet to give up an extra-base hit this season.

Roark is 2-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 13 appearances against Miami, but he has a 2.39 ERA in six games at Marlins Park. Martin Prado (.342, 0 HR, 4 RBI’s) is 6-for-12 with a home run and four RBI’s against him.

As for Jose Fernandez, the Marlins’ ace is always a tough opponent to go up against. He has had two decent starts, but does not have a win to show for it. In his first start of the year against the Tigers, he had 13 strikeouts over 5.2 innings, but gave up five runs in a loss (his first home loss of his career).

In his last start against the Mets, he had struggles with his command as he walked three batters over five innings, but he held the New York offense to one run in a no-decision. If the Marlins are going to compete for a playoff spot, they need the 23-year-old right-hander to stay healthy and put up strong numbers, like the 6-1 record with a 2.92 ERA that he had in his 11 starts last year.

Against the Nationals in his career, Fernandez is 3-0 with a 0.98 ERA in six outings. Not many Nats’ hitters have great numbers against the Marlins’ ace such as Jayson Werth, who has one home run, but is hitting .071 against him. Harper is 3-for-10 against Fernandez with four walks.

Prediction: While I do think Roark will keep this game close, the Nationals have never had much success against Fernandez. Coming off the tough loss yesterday, I think the Nats will have their first two game losing streak of the season.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Stephen Strasburg (2-0, 1.98) vs. Adam Conley (0-0, 3.86) – 7:10 p.m, MASN2

Strasburg had his last start pushed back one day due to an illness, but he put up a quality outing against the Braves last Thursday. In 7.2 innings, he gave up two runs on four hits, struck out seven, and walked two on 100 pitches. So far, he has given up just three runs in 13 innings.

It is early in the season, but Strasburg’s average velocity on his fastball is down from 95.4 to 94.5 (according to Fangraphs). With that being said, his slider has been used about 12% of the time and has become another weapon he can use against opposing hitters.

Against the Marlins last year, he was 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA in four starts and is 10-7 with a 3.69 ERA in 23 career starts against them (3-5, 5.65 ERA in eight starts at Marlins Park). Giancarlo Stanton is 13-for-32 (.406) with three home runs and ten RBI’s against Strasburg.

So far, Conley has some mixed results in his first two outings. In his first outing of the year against the Nats, his start was cut short due to rain. He was given a 3-0 lead before he took the mound, but Daniel Murphy’s bases clearing triple ended up tying the game at three. He came out after that first inning because of the rain delay.

In his last start against the Mets, Conley was sharp, but did not get any run support from his offense. He threw six innings of shutout ball, gave up four hits, struck out nine, and walked one in a no-decision. That start and his good spring showed why Conley could be one of the keys at the back end of the Marlins rotation.

Prediction: This will be an interesting game to watch because of which Conley the Nats will see tomorrow night. However, while Stephen Strasburg hasn’t racked up the strikeouts, he has been efficient and keeping the other team off the board. I expect that trend to continue and the Nationals to win their first game of the series.

Next: Wednesday's Matchup

Max Scherzer (2-0, 3.15) vs. Tom Koehler (0-2, 6.30) – 1:10 p.m, MASN

Just like Joe Ross, the Nationals gave Max Scherzer an early lead before he took the mound and he took full advantage of it. The Nats’ ace went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out seven, and walked one on 108 pitches in the win. The only mistake Scherzer made in that game was a solo home run by Cameron Rupp in the bottom of the fifth.

So far, Scherzer has thrown over 100 pitches in each of his first three outings. He has 20 strikeouts in those games. Plus, Scherzer helped his own cause in that win over Philadelphia when he hit a two-run double in the fifth after the Phillies walked Danny Espinosa intentionally.

Scherzer was supposed to start in the first series against Miami, but it got pushed back because of the postponement. Against Miami last season, he was 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA in five starts and he did not give up a run in two outings at Marlins Park. Gordon is 8-for-26 (.308) against him with a home run and two RBI’s.

As for Koehler, he is coming off of a rough outing against the Braves in his last start. He went 3.2 innings gave up six runs (five earned) on nine hits, struck out six, and walked one on 72 pitches.

While Koehler can be one of those guys who gives the Marlins length in games, consistency is always going to be a big question, especially when you consider his ERA in the second half of last season was 4.84, over a full run higher than the first half (3.40). That being said, Koehler had a good start against the Nats on April 10 when he gave up two runs over 6.1 innings, but Jayson Werth’s game-winning single against Edwin Jackson caused Koehler to take the loss.

Next: Reaction: Mike Maddux Is Exactly Who Nats Needed

In ten career starts against Washington, the 29-year-old right-hander is 3-7 with a 4.45 ERA. Harper is 8-for-26 (.308) with five home runs and ten RBI’s against Koehler.

Prediction: Even though the Nationals didn’t have much success against Koehler last time, I expect the Nats to have a better result offensively in this one. Washington gets the win behind a great outing from Scherzer and they will split the four game series with the Marlins.