Washington Nationals At Kansas City Royals Series Preview (5/3-5/5)
The Washington Nationals will begin a series tonight against the defending World Series Champions
The Washington Nationals (17-7) got their ten game road trip off to a great start over the weekend as they swept the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. It was their club’s first sweep of the Cardinals since they became the Nationals in 2005. The main story was the starting pitching as Stephen Strasburg, Joe Ross, and Max Scherzer combined to give up three runs in the series.
As for the offense, other players stepped up for the April NL Player of the Month Bryce Harper, who went 0-for-11 with two walks and five strikeouts. Jayson Werth went 4-for-10 with a home run and five RBI’s and Daniel Murphy drove in a run in all three games. Plus, the Nats got home runs yesterday from Clint Robinson and Danny Espinosa (two in the series).
The road trip continues tonight as the Washington Nationals start a three game series against the defending World Series champions, the Kansas City Royals (13-11). Kansas City comes into tonight having lost five of their last six games and they trail the White Sox by four games in the AL Central.
The struggles for Ned Yost’s club have come on offense. Their 81 runs scored are tied with the Yankees for the second lowest in the American League and they have 11 runs in their last six games. With that being said, first baseman Eric Hosmer leads the team in batting average (.333) and hits (31). Plus, catcher/World Series MVP Salvador Perez leads the team in RBI’s with 14, including nine of them at home.
At the same time, the Royals aren’t a team that relies on the long ball. Instead, they are a team that plays small ball and allows the other team to make a mistake. They are second in baseball in stolen bases (20) behind only the Boston Red Sox (22). Keep in mind that Kansas City was second in the AL last year in steals with 104 (Houston had 121).
On the mound, the Royals’ rotation has a 3.99 ERA, which is eighth in the AL. So far, their new acquisition, Ian Kennedy, has the lowest ERA of the five starters (2.61) and thrown the most innings (31). However, Kennedy will not be pitching in this series after he helped Kansas City snap their five game losing streak yesterday.
When you talk about the Royals, the strength has been their bullpen over the last two seasons. This year, it remains true as KC’s bullpen is third in the AL in ERA (2.37). Closer Wade Davis is 10-for-10 in saves and Kelvim Hererra has yet to give up a run in 13 appearances. However, Joakim Soria has struggled in his return to the Royals (5.25 ERA) and Luke Hochevar is battling elbow tightness:
Luke Hochevar is battling elbow tightness, Ned Yost said. He wasn't available today.
— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) May 1, 2016
Here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 3.42 ERA) vs. Edinson Volquez (3-1, 3.34) – 8:15 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN
In his first four outings of the season, Gonzalez has shown the consistency fans have been looking for since last season. Against the Phillies back on April 27, he took the loss, but pitched a quality game. He went 6.1 innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out five, and walked three on 108 pitches. He did walk three batters, but he was able to get 13 groundball outs to keep the damage down.
Gonzalez’s April ERA of 1.42 is over three runs lower than what it was last April when he had a 5.01 ERA in four starts and opponents were hitting .312. Plus, left-handed bats this season only have three hits in 18 at-bats against him.
In eight career starts against the Royals, Gonzalez is 3-3 with a 7.49 ERA with five of those starts coming at Kauffman Stadium (7.71 ERA). Hosmer is 4-for-6 against him with two home runs and four RBI’s against Gonzalez.
Volquez was the Opening Day starter for the Royals this year and pitched well in his first four outings. But, he had a rough start last time out against the Angels. The 32-year-old right-hander went five innings, gave up eight runs on 12 hits, struck out three, and walked two in his first loss of the season.
Besides that Angels start, Volquez had given up just three runs in his first four outings of the year and allowed only one home run. He has won 13 games each of the past two seasons and consistently pounds the strike zone. His ten walks are tied with Chris Young (tomorrow’s starter) for the fewest on the team.
From his time in the National League, Volquez is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA in six outings against the Washington Nationals with his last start coming against them in 2014. Daniel Murphy is 6-for-15 (.400) with a double, two RBI’s and three walks against him. Last October in the World Series, he was 1-for-5 against him with two strikeouts.
Prediction: Out of the three games, I expect tonight’s to be the one that gives us the best pitcher’s duel if Volquez can bounce back. This will be an interesting test for Gonzalez against the defending champs and I liked how the Nats’ offense bounced back in St. Louis and I think it will carry over into this game. With that being said, I’ll take the Royals’ bullpen to steal a win here.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Tanner Roark (2-2, 2.03) vs. Chris Young (1-4, 6.12) – 8:15 p.m, MASN2
Since allowing three runs in the first inning against the Marlins back on April 18, Roark has given up just two runs in the last 18 innings he has pitched. In his last outing against the Phillies, he gave up just two hits over seven innings while striking out six and walking two on 99 pitches in a no-decision.
This is the second consecutive start Roark has given up only two hits and gone seven innings. Basically, the 29-year-old right-hander has yet to give up a run unless he is playing the Miami Marlins. But, he has walked two or more batters in each of his five outings.
Roark only faced the Royals one time back on August 23, 2013. In relief of Gio Gonzalez, he went 4.2 innings, gave up one hit, struck out two, and walked one in a game the Nats ended up winning 11-10. Kendrys Morales and Alcides Escobar each have a hit against him in their careers.
As for Chris Young, he does have 26 strikeouts in his first five outings, but teams are hitting .267. Plus, he has given up six home runs and has allowed one home run in every game. In his last start, he gave up two home runs to the Angels over 5.1 innings (three runs allowed) in a 4-2 loss.
The 36-year-old right-hander only gave up 16 home runs last season with KC after giving up 26 with the Mariners in 2014. He is not a pitcher who is going to fool hitters with his fastball.
According to Fangraphs, Young’s average velocity on his fastball is over 87 miles per hour. If it stays there, it would be his highest average velocity since 2008 with San Diego.
Young is 3-2 with a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts against the Nationals, but he hasn’t faced them since he was with the Mets back in 2012. Bryce Harper is 4-for-8 against him with a home run and three RBI’s and Wilson Ramos has homered in both of his at-bats vs. Young.
Prediction: It will be interesting to watch these two pitchers go against other when you consider that they were teammates in 2013 with triple-A Syracuse. The way that Young has been giving up the long ball lately and how Roark has been locked in in his last couple of starts, I will take the Nats to take this game behind a strong day from their offense, including Ramos, who is back from the bereavement list.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Stephen Strasburg vs. Kris Medlen (1-2, 4.87) – 2:15 p.m, MASN/MLB Network
This is a matchup between two pitchers who used to face each other in the NL East when Medlen was with the Braves. First, let’s talk about Strasburg. After giving up two runs in the first inning in his last outing against the Cardinals, Strasburg showed off his dominance.
The Nats’ right-hander went seven innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out nine, and walked one on 103 pitches in the win. Strasburg has given up two runs or fewer in four of his five outings this season. Plus, he has nine or more strikeouts in each of his last three games.
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Strasburg hasn’t faced the Royals since the fourth start of his rookie season back in 2010. He gave up one run on nine hits over six innings while striking out nine in a 1-0 loss. The only two Royals hitter who have faced him are second baseman Omar Infante (0-for-6 with a RBI) and Morales (1-for-3).
Meanwhile, Medlen is a pitcher who has battled numerous arm injuries, but has been with the Royals for the last two seasons. In his last game against the Mariners back on April 29, he went five innings, gave up one run on one hit, walked five, and struck out three on 103 pitches in the loss.
The 30-year-old right-hander has pitched five innings or more in three of his four games, but he has struggled with his control. His 16 walks are third in the AL and he has walked three or more batters in all four games.
Next: Reaction: Joe Ross Dominates, Offense Improves
From his time with the Braves, Medlen is 3-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 14 games (four starts). Jayson Werth is 5-for-18 (.278) against Medlen with two doubles, a home run, and two RBI’s.
Prediction: It’s tough to pick against Strasburg since he has been dominant so far this season. I think he has another strong outing against a struggling lineup and the offense takes advantage of Medlen’s inconsistent control.