Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Series Preview (5/13-5/15)
The Washington Nationals will finish up a seven game homestand with a four game series against the Miami Marlins.
It has been a crazy week so far for the Washington Nationals (21-13). On Monday, there was the news about Stephen Strasburg‘s contract extension and a walk-off home run by Clint Robinson win over the Tigers that also had some antics from Bryce Harper. There was a controversial slide play at second base on Tuesday night. Then, on Wednesday night, Max Scherzer struck out 20 Tigers in a 3-2 win over Jordan Zimmermann.
After a day off yesterday, the Nats will begin a four game series against the Miami Marlins (18-15) tonight, which includes a makeup of a April 10 game that was postponed due to inclement weather. This season, the Washington Nationals are 3-3 against the Marlins, who are playing some good baseball as of late.
Of course, the Nats will be seeing a Marlins team that is without second baseman Dee Gordon. Gordon was suspended 80 games for PED’s back on April 28. However, the Marlins are 8-4 since Gordon was suspended and they are now 2.5 games back of the Nats and Mets in the NL East.
Even without Gordon, the Marlins still have a good offense. Of course, Giancarlo Stanton is still hitting home runs (ten), but two other players to watch are third baseman Martin Prado (.386, no home runs, ten RBI’s) and left fielder Marcell Ozuna (.295, six home runs, 17 RBI). Ozuna is on a 11-game hitting streak and is hitting .436 in May.
On the mound, the Marlins have a 4.45 team ERA this month (Nats at 4.00). As for the starters, they are fourth in the National League in wins (13), including four from Jose Fernandez and three from Wei-Yin Chen. In the bullpen, closer A.J. Ramos is 10-for-10 in saves with a 1.29 ERA and David Phelps has held opponents to a .196 batting average in the eighth inning.
With that being said, here are my predictions for this weekend’s pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Tom Koehler (2-3, 5.83 ERA) vs. Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 2.19) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
For the most part this season, Koehler has been able to keep the opposition off the board. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts. This includes his last outing against the Phillies back on May 7 when he went seven innings, gave up one run on two hits, struck out eight, and walked two in a no-decision.
The one awful start that the 29-year-old right-hander had came on May 1 against the Brewers when he gave up eight runs in 2.1 innings. So far, the 19 runs Koehler has allowed is the second most of any Marlins’ starter (Chen leads with 21).
Koehler has had some success against the Washington Nationals this year. He is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts. He has given up three runs in 11.1 innings. Bryce Harper is 9-for-28 (.321) against him with six home runs (one this season) and 11 RBI’s.
As for Gonzalez, he had his worst outing of the season last Saturday against the Chicago Cubs. He went 5.2 innings, gave up five runs on seven hits, struck out two, and walked one in a no-decision. The problem for Gonzalez was in the sixth inning when he allowed three hits and a RBI single before leaving the game.
Despite his struggles against a great lineup in Chicago, Gonzalez is eighth in the National League in ERA (2.19). Plus, he has been dominant at home so far this season. In three outings at Nats Park, he is 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA and has given up only three runs (no home runs).
Against the Marlins in his career, the left-hander is 6-3 with a 2.38 ERA in ten outings, but he went 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in two starts last season. Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (.223, two home runs, 11 RBI’s) is 4-for-16 (.250) against him with a double, a triple, and three RBI’s.
Prediction: While the Nats have had their fair share of struggles against Koehler this season, this is a game where I think Gonzalez bounces back from a rough outing against the Cubs and wins a pitcher’s duel to get the series started on a good note. Plus, maybe this is the night where a Harper home run is just enough.
Next: Game 1 Matchup
Justin Nicolino (2-0, 2.79) vs. Stephen Strasburg (5-0, 2.76) – 1:05 p.m ET, MASN
In Game one of the doubleheader, the Washington Nationals will see Justin Nicolino. The 24-year-old left-hander was called up to the big leagues on April 27 for Jarred Cosart. In his three outings, he has given up just six runs and pitched at least six innings.
Nicolino made his debut with the Marlins last June. He made 12 starts and went 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA. Last Sunday against the Phillies, he went six innings, gave up two earned runs on seven hits, struck out one, and walked one in a no-decision.
So far, he has 12+ groundball outs in each of his last three starts. Nicolino has an average fastball velocity of 88.8 miles per hour (according to Fangraphs) to go with a cutter, a breaking ball, and a changeup. He faced the Nats last season (September 20) and gave up seven runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings. Jayson Werth went 1-for-3 with a double and two RBI’s in that game.
Strasburg will get the start in game one tomorrow after the news of him signing his seven-year, $175 million extension this week. In his last outing on Monday against Detroit, he went seven innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out 11, and walked three on 107 pitches in a no-decision.
The only two mistakes the right-hander made were two-run home runs by Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez. But, he struck out six of the last seven batters he faced in the game. Strasburg has struck out at least seven hitters in six consecutive outings.
In his career against the Marlins, Strasburg is 11-7 with a 3.46 ERA in 24 starts. Back on April 19, he threw eight shutout innings against Miami, gave up only three hits, struck out ten batters, and walked two in a win. Stanton is 14-for-35 (.400) with seven doubles, three home runs, and ten RBI’s against Strasburg in his career.
Prediction: Even though Nicolino has pitched well for the Marlins, I think the Nats will be able to put together a crooked inning on offense against him. Plus, with Strasburg being dominant this season, it’s tough to pick against him. I have the Nats taking game one of the doubleheader.
Next: Game 2 Matchup
TBD vs. Tanner Roark (2-2, 2.03) – 7:05 p.m ET, MASN2
While it is not official yet who will start for Miami in the doubleheader, MLB.com listed Nicolino as the Game one starter. This afternoon, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald tweeted that Kendry Flores will be the other pitcher tomorrow night since both teams can add a player for one of the games. It is just not confirmed as to which game he will start.
It appears Kendry Flores will get the call up to start one of the DH games tomorrow in DC. #marlins
— clarkspencer (@clarkspencer) May 13, 2016
Flores has been in the Marlins organization since December 2014, when he was traded from the San Francisco Giants for Casey McGehee. He did play in seven games (one start) with Miami last season and was 1-2 with a 4.97 ERA.
So far, this season, the 24-year-old right-hander is 1-1 with a 2.59 in six starts with Miami’s triple-A team, the New Orleans Zephyrs. In his last start on May 7, he gave up two runs on five hits and struck out four on 103 pitches in a win. However, he has not struck out more than five batters in any outing this year. He did not face the Nats last year.
It was a tough assignment for Roark in his last outing to go up against one of the best pitchers in the game in Jake Arrieta. However, Roark was able to outpitch him despite getting a no-decision in the Nats’ 13-inning loss against the Cubs. He went six innings, gave up one run (no earned runs) on four hits, struck out seven, and walked two.
Roark has not allowed any earned runs in three of his last four starts and now has the lowest ERA of any Nats’ pitcher in the rotation. Plus, he has pitched six innings or more in six consecutive outings.
His worst start of the year was against the Marlins and Fernandez back on April 18 when he gave up four earned runs over six innings in a loss. He is 2-6 with a 3.88 ERA in 14 games (eight starts) in his career against Miami. Stanton is 5-for-17 (.294) with two home runs and three RBI’s against Roark.
Prediction: Considering the Nats don’t have any experience facing Flores and that it is tough to sweep a doubleheader, I am going to take the Marlins’ offense to have success against Roark (0-2, 6.30 ERA against Miami this season) and get their first win of the series.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Jose Fernandez vs. Joe Ross (3-2, 2.29)– 1:35 p.m, MASN2/WUSA9
On Sunday, the Nats will be going up against the Marlins’ ace in the final game of this series. In his last outing against the Brewers back on May 9, he went seven innings, gave up no runs on four hits, struck out 11, and walked four in the win. He has won three straight games and hasn’t lost since April 23.
While the 23-year-old right-hander has 58 strikeouts this season (fourth in the National League), he has been erratic with his command at time. His 20 walks are third in the NL and he has walked more than one batter in five of his six outings.
Against the Nats back on April 18, he went six innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out nine, and walked four in a win. He is 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA in seven career starts vs. Washington. Harper is 3-for-11 (.273) with one RBI and five walks against Fernandez.
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This will be another good test for Ross on Sunday afternoon going up against Fernandez. In his last outing, Ross had difficulties with his command at times and it cost him the sixth inning. Against the Tigers on Tuesday, he went six innings, gave up five runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked two.
Even though Ross has lost back-to-back games, he has done a good job of not giving up many home runs (one in 35.1 innings). In that Detroit outing, he only threw 15 first pitch strikes to the 28 batters that he faced, which isn’t the command Ross is known for having.
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This season, the 22-year-old right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two outings against Miami. Last time against the Marlins (April 20), he had to leave that start early because of a blister after only two innings. Stanton is 1-for-4 with a RBI against Ross while Christian Yelich (.386, no home runs, ten RBI’s) is 0-for-1 with three walks.
Prediction: This matchup should be a lot of fun to watch with two quality pitchers going at it. While I expect Ross to put up a good outing, the Washington Nationals offense usually struggles against Fernandez. Right now, I would give the slight edge to the Marlins in the series finale.