Washington Nationals at Mets Series Preview (5/17-5/19)
Tonight, the Washington Nationals begin a three game series at Citi Field against the reigning NL East and National League champions
After splitting a weekend series with the Miami Marlins, the Washington Nationals (23-15) are at Citi Field tonight as they take on the defending NL East and National League Champions, the New York Mets (21-16). The Nats enter this series 1.5 games up on New York in the NL East standings.
Last season, the Washington Nationals were 4-8 in their final 12 games against the Mets. Both teams aren’t coming into this series on a good note as the Nats lost the last two games to Miami while Terry Collins’ squad went 4-7 on a 11-game road trip and got swept in Coors Field by the Colorado Rockies this weekend.
On offense, the Mets have a few hitters who can hit the ball out of the ballpark. They are third in all of baseball with 53 home runs, but they have a team batting average of .239. The two players with double-digit home runs are center fielder Yoenis Cespedes (12 home runs) and second baseman Neil Walker (ten).
Of course, the second basemen will be one of the storylines in this series with Daniel Murphy heading back to Citi Field. The Mets did not re-sign him in the offseason after a great postseason and elected to go with Walker, who they acquired in a trade with the Pirates.
When you talk about the Mets, the first thing that comes to mind is the starting pitching. The Mets’ starters have the fourth lowest ERA in the NL (3.41). The one surprise in this rotation is Matt Harvey, who has the highest ERA of anyone on the staff (4.93). However, two pitchers that have excelled ate Jacob deGrom (3-1, 2.50) and Noah Syndergaard (3-2, 2.53).
In the bullpen, closer Jeurys Familia is 12-for-12 in save chances and the offseason additions of Antonio Bastardo and Jim Henderson have helped the ‘pen lead the NL in ERA at 2.44 (Nats are second – 2.88).
Before the series starts tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Max Scherzer (4-2, 4.15 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (3-2, 2.53) – 7:10 p.m ET, MASN/MLB Network
In his last start against the Detroit Tigers, Scherzer accomplished more history in a Washington Nationals uniform. In a complete game win, he gave up two runs on six hits and struck out 20 batters, becoming just the fourth pitcher ever to accomplish that feat. Out of the 119 pitches he threw, 96 of them were for strikes.
It was a huge contrast compared to the outing he had before the Detroit game when he gave up four home runs in a loss to the Cubs. Even though Scherzer has given up 11 home runs this season, teams are hitting just .237 against him. But, because the Nats’ rotation is off to a great start, that’s the highest opponents’ batting average among the five starters.
Against the Mets last season, Scherzer was 1-2 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts. He had a 0.56 ERA in two outings at Citi Field, including a no-hitter with 17 strikeouts in his final start of the season. Curtis Granderson is 7-for-23 (.304) against Scherzer with three doubles, a home run, and three RBI’s.
As for Syndergaard, he has been dominant this season for the Mets. He has given up two runs or fewer in six of his eight outings. In his last start against the Dodgers, he went eight innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out six, walked one, and hit two home runs in the win.
When you watch Syndergaard, his fastball is electric. He has an average velocity of 98 miles per hour on his fastball, which is the fastest in the league (according to Fangraphs). But, the pitch to watch is his slider, which teams are hitting a mere .130 against, according to Brooks Baseball.
Last season, in his rookie year, the 23-year-old right-hander was 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three outings against the Nats and held them to a .194 batting average. Anthony Rendon is 3-for-7 against him with a home run.
Prediction: I expect this game to be a pitcher’s duel with runs coming at a premium for either side. Although Scherzer has been dominant against the Mets, he has given up a lot of home runs and that could come back to bite him against New York. If the Nats can steal bases against Syndergaard, who has allowed 14 steals this year, they have a great chance to win. However, I like the Mets to win this one, 3-2.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 1.93) vs. Bartolo Colon (3-2, 3.53) – 7:10 p.m, MASN/ESPN
Last Friday, Gonzalez was cruising against the Marlins when he gave up only one hit in the first four innings. Then, thanks to some bad defense, Gonzalez needed 39 pitches to finish the fifth and was taken out in the sixth inning with the bases loaded. The Nats’ left-hander went five innings, gave up two runs (all unearned) on six hits, struck out seven, and walked two.
While Gonzalez has been much better with his command this season, he needs to avoid that one inning where he has to throw a lot of pitches. He has not gone past six innings in back-to-back outings after going at least six innings in the first five starts of the season.
Gonzalez is 9-4 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 career starts against the Mets (6-1, 1.54 ERA in 11 starts at Citi Field). David Wright is 6-for-21 (.286) against Gonzalez with one home run and four RBI’s in his career. The question is whether or not Wright will play after he was scratched from tonight’s game because of a back injury:
Mets say David Wright's back is bothering him and that's why Wright is scratched from lineup.
— Anthony McCarron (@AnthonyMcCarron) May 17, 2016
The talk of Bartolo Colon’s season so far has been the home run he hit back on May 7 against the San Diego Padres. Colon is only supposed to be in the rotation until Zack Wheeler comes back from Tommy John surgery, but he has had some good moments this year. He has given up three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts.
However, the 42-year-old right-hander struggled in his last outing against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. He went five innings, gave up five runs (all In the first two innings), gave up seven hits, and struck out three in the loss. Colon has been good at Citi Field this season as he has a 1.89 ERA in three home starts (4.81 ERA in five road games).
In nine games against the Nationals, Colon is 3-5 with a 3.17 ERA (1.29 ERA in two games last season). Bryce Harper is 3-for-13 (.231) with a home run and two RBi’s against him.
Prediction: Even though Colon has done a good job for the Mets this season, I expect Gonzalez to pitch a little better considering his Citi Field track record and he can take advantage of a lineup that relies on the long ball (only two home runs allowed all season). Nats win their first game of the series.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Stephen Strasburg (6-0, 2.95) vs. Matt Harvey (3-5,4.93) – 7:10 p.m, MASN/MLB Network
Thursday night will be a battle of the Scott Boras clients at Citi Field. First, let’s start with Strasburg. The Nats’ right-hander got the start in game one of the doubleheader against the Marlins on Saturday. He went six innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out seven, and walked three on 104 pitches to get the win.
While Strasburg is off to a strong start this season, one thing to keep an eye on is that he has walked three batters in each of his last two games. But, he has gone at least six innings in every game and he has at least seven strikeouts in each of his last seven games.
In nine career starts against the Mets, Strasburg is 4-3 with a 2.78 ERA (4-1, 2.17 ERA in six starts at Citi Field). In his last start against the Mets (September 9, 2015), he struck out 13 batters over 7.1 innings and still took the loss. Walker is 3-for-11 (.273) with one home run and two RBI’s against him.
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Everyone remembers Matt Harvey’s great outing in Game 5 of the World Series, despite the Mets losing in extra innings. However, Harvey hasn’t been dominant this season as he has not gone more than six outings in any game this year.
In his last start against the Rockies on May 13, he went 5.2 innings, gave up five runs on 11 hits and struck out six in a loss. He only has two games of six or more strikeouts this year and teams are hitting .311 against him (.222 last season).
Harvey is 3-3 with a 1.77 ERA in ten career starts against the Washington Nationals (2-2 in six starts last season). If Clint Robinson plays, he is 4-for-11 (.364) with a double and three RBI’s against Harvey. However, the stat you will see everyone talk about is that Harper is 0-for-20 vs. the right-hander with seven strikeouts.
Next: District Daily: Baker Making The Right Decisions
Prediction: For this game, I am looking to see which Harvey shows up for the Mets. Strasburg has been consistent for the Nats all season and I think that gives him the slight edge in this game. Washington gets the win and takes two out of three in the series.