Washington Nationals at Marlins Series Preview (5/20-5/22)

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May 6, 2016; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins relief pitcher David Phelps (right) celebrates with Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto (left) after the Marlins defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-4 at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

The Washington Nationals will end their six game road trip with a three game series against the Miami Marlins

At Citi Field this week, the Washington Nationals (25-16) offense scored 16 runs in the final two games of the series as they won two out of three against the New York Mets. This included scoring seven runs in the third inning against Matt Harvey.

Tonight, the Nats end their six game road trip with a three game series at Marlins Park against the Miami Marlins (21-19). These two teams played a four game series last weekend at Nats Park with each team winning two of the games. Don Mattingly’s club is now 3.5 games behind Washington in the NL East, but they are 5-5 against them this season.

Against the Marlins this year, second baseman Daniel Murphy is hitting .382 with a double, triple, and three RBI’s while Bryce Harper has four of his 11 home runs against Miami, which is the most he’s hit against any team this season.

While the Washington Nationals were playing the Mets, the Marlins lost two out of three games to the Phillies. This month, Miami’s offense has the best batting average in the National League (.274), but they have only scored 70 runs (tenth in the NL). Left fielder Marcell Ozuna (.302, seven home runs, 21 RBI’s) is second in the NL in batting average (.394) and runs scored (14).

Even with Dee Gordon out due to the PED suspension, the Marlins have received production from the leadoff spot. Catcher J.T. Realmuto is 12-for-24 when he leads off an inning with three doubles. The 25-year-old is hitting .333 with six doubles this month. Of course, you can never forget Giancarlo Stanton and the 11 home runs, but Stanton is hitting .175 in May.

On the mound, Jose Fernandez (5-2, 3.21 ERA) continues to dominate as he won NL Pitcher of the Week last week over Max Scherzer, despite Scherzer’s 20-strikeout outing. This month, Miami’s team ERA is 3.83, which is tenth in the NL. As for the bullpen, they are fifth in the NL this season (3.63). Their closer, A.J. Ramos, is 12-for-12 in saves.

Before the series gets underway tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups

Next: Tonight's Matchup

May 14, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Justin Nicolino (20) pitches against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

Tanner Roark (2-3, 3.10 ERA) vs. Justin Nicolino (2-1, 3.75) – 7:10 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN

Both of these pitchers took the ball in last Saturday’s doubleheader, but they did not face each other. Roark started game two and had a rough outing against the Marlins. He went five innings, gave up seven runs on eight hits, struck out five, and walked three on 115 pitches in a loss.

The seven runs Roark gave up against the Marlins were the most he has given up in any start this season. Plus, he continued his streak of walking two or more batters in every start this season as he has 20 on the season. Roark has had a good year so far, but he still can’t figure out how to beat the Marlins.

In three starts against Miami this year, he is 0-3 with a 8.40 ERA, has given up 14 runs in 15 innings, and Miami is hitting .353 against him as a team. Marcell Ozuna is 4-for-9 against him this year with a triple and four RBI’s.

Nicolino got the start in game one of the doubleheader against Stephen Strasburg. He went 4.2 innings, gave up four runs on five hits, struck out one, and walked five on 86 pitches as he picked up his first loss of the season.

After shutting out the Dodgers in his first start of the year, Nicolino has given up ten runs in his last three starts. Plus, he is not a pitcher who is going to strike many batters out (four strikeouts in four games). Jayson Werth, who turns 37 today, is 3-for-5 against Nicolino in his career with a double and three RBI’s.

Prediction: Even though the Washington Nationals had success against Nicolino last week and are coming off the great game from their offense against the Mets last night, it’s tough for me to trust Roark when he has struggled so much against the Marlins this year. Miami picks up the win in the series opener.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

May 15, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) throws to the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /

Joe Ross (3-3, 2.63) vs. Jose Fernandez (5-2, 3.21) – 7:15 p.m, FOX

This matchup is a rematch from last Sunday’s game when the Marlins defeated the Nats, 5-1. In that game, Ross wasn’t helped by some bad defense when Stephen Drew lost a pop up in the sun that allowed two runs to score. He went 5.2 innings, gave up five runs (three earned) on seven hits, struck out three, and walked two on 106 pitches in the loss.

Ross, who will turn 23 tomorrow, is 0-3 this month with a 4.91 ERA. One of the problems for Ross is that he has not been able to get out of the sixth inning, especially in his last two outings (six runs). He has been good on the road this season as he has a 1.21 ERA in four starts (4.38 ERA in three home starts).

Despite that loss, Ross is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts this season against the Marlins. Stanton is 2-for-7 (.286) with a home run and two RBI’s against Ross in his career.

As for Fernandez, he was dominant in his outing last Sunday against the Nats and he would’ve had a shutout if not for an outfield collision that allowed Ryan Zimmerman to get an inside-the-park home run. He went seven innings, gave up one run on four hits, struck out 11, and walked three on 117 pitches in the win.

This month, the 23-year-old right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and has 29 strikeouts (11 K’s in back-to-back games). He is tied for fifth in strikeouts among all NL pitchers this month. Despite the high strikeout numbers, he is fourth among all NL pitchers in walks this year (23).

Fernandez is 20-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 30 career outings at home and he is 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA in eight starts against the Nats. Zimmerman is 4-for-14 (.286) with a double and the aforementioned home run in his career.

Prediction: While I expect Ross to have a strong outing on his birthday, the Nats haven’t shown they can beat Fernandez, so I don’t expect that to change here. Marlins get the win.

Next: Sunday's Matchup

May 17, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) pitches against the New York Mets during the second inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

Max Scherzer (4-3, 4.01) vs. Adam Conley (3-2, 3.40) – 1:10 p.m, MASN/WUSA9

Even though Scherzer had a strong outing against the Mets, he was the hard luck loser in Tuesday night’s battle against Noah Syndergaard. Scherzer went 6.1 innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out ten, and walked three on 98 pitches in a 2-0 loss.

The problem for Scherzer continues to be the home runs as he has allowed 13 of them this season and eight in the last three games. With that being said, he has struck out 30 batters combined in the last two games and his 46 K’s are second in the NL this month behind Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers (48).

In his only start against the Marlins this season, Scherzer went five innings, gave up five runs on eight hits, struck out three, and walked two in a loss back on April 21. Martin Prado is 11-for-22 (.500) against him with a home run and three RBI’s in his career.

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Scherzer will go up against Conley, who has a 2.93 ERA in his three outings this month. Against the Phillies back on May 16, the 25-year-old left-hander went six innings, gave up one run on eight hits, struck out five, and walked one in the win.

Unlike Scherzer, Conley has not given up many home runs. He has allowed only three homers this year and none in his last four outings. Back in that start against the Phillies, he did allow 13 flyball outs, which is the most he’s had this year.

Conley has made two starts against the Washington Nationals this season and he is 0-1 with a 8.22 ERA. Back on April 19, he shut out the Nats for the first six innings, but gave up solo home runs to Werth and Wilson Ramos in the seventh inning in a loss. Ramos is 2-for-6 with a pair of home runs against Conley.

Next: Reaction: Murphy Becomes Catalyst For Lineup

Prediction: If my prediction holds true and the Nats lose the first two games, they will need Scherzer to have a strong outing. While the Marlins have a few hitters that can hit the ball out of the park, I think the Nats’ offense will do enough against Conley to squeak out a win and avoid the sweep.

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