Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Series Preview (5/26-5/29)
The Washington Nationals will wrap up their seven game homestand with a four game series against the St. Louis Cardinals
This week, the Washington Nationals (28-19) lost two out of three games at home to the New York Mets. In their two losses, they scored only one run against Bartolo Colon and Steven Matz. However, in their lone win on Tuesday night, the Nats hit five home runs in a 7-2 win for Stephen Strasburg.
Tonight, they enter play with a ½ game lead in the NL East as they begin a four game series against the St. Louis Cardinals (24-23). Last month, the Nats swept the Cardinals at Busch Stadium for the first time since the franchise became the Washington Nationals. In those three games, the Nats outscored the Cardinals 17-6.
In the month of May, Mike Matheny’s club is 12-11 this month and they are eight games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. On offense, St. Louis has scored 116 runs, which is the second most in the National League (Cubs have 120). The two players that lead the team in RBI’s this month with 15 are first baseman Matt Adams and third baseman Matt Carpenter (six home runs).
Another player to watch on their offense is right fielder Stephen Piscotty. Piscotty is hitting .360 this month with one home run, 11 RBI’s, and a .436 on-base percentage. He is fourth on the team in batting average (.328) and second in RBI’s with 26 (Carpenter leads with 32).
However, the problem for the Cardinals this month has been their pitching. Their team ERA of 4.61 is the second highest in the NL (Reds – 5.59). As far as their rotation goes, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha are a combined 0-9 this month and have an ERA of 6.84 and 7.27 respectively.
As for the bullpen, closer Trevor Rosenthal is 8-for-9 in saves this season, but he has only had four opportunities to save games this month. St. Louis’ bullpen ERA is 3.70, which is the sixth lowest in the NL.
Before the series gets underway tonight, here is my breakdown of the pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Mike Leake (3-3, 4.07 ERA) vs. Joe Ross (3-4, 2.70) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN/MLB Network
Even though Leake has not been as consistent as the Cardinals would’ve hoped, he has not lost a game since his last outing against the Washington Nationals on April 29. In his last game on May 21 against the Diamondbacks, he threw seven shutout innings, gave up four hits, and struck out three in a win.
The 28-year-old right-hander has won three of his last four starts and three straight decisions. His 2.08 ERA in the month of May is by far the lowest in the rotation this month. He has given up six runs in those four starts. While he doesn’t strike many hitters out, he has held opponents to a .200 average this month.
Back on April 29, Leake went seven innings, gave up five runs on five hits and allowed two home runs in a loss to the Nats. He is 3-4 with a 4.98 ERA in ten starts against Washington. Wilson Ramos is 4-for-15 (.267) with two home runs and three RBI’s against him.
In what will be likely his second to last start of the month, Joe Ross is still looking for his first win in May. Ross, who is 0-4 with a 4.50 ERA in May, had a good start against the Marlins on Saturday in a losing effort. He went 5.2 innings, gave up three runs on eight hits, struck out seven, and walked one in the loss.
Ross had a pickoff error in the fourth inning of that game and he gave up a two-run home run to Justin Bour in the sixth. The problem for the 23-year-old this season has been the sixth inning. In that inning, he has given up eight runs (tied for fourth in the NL) and opponents are hitting .448 against him.
Back on April 30, Ross went six innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out four, and walked two in a win over St. Louis. Kolten Wong is 1-for-3 against Ross with a RBI.
Prediction: This month, the Nats have only scored nine runs when Ross makes a start. With Ross’ sixth inning struggles and Mike Leake pitching well right now, I am going to give the Cardinals the edge and the win in the first game of this series.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Jaime Garcia (3-4, 3.59) vs. Max Scherzer (5-3, 3.80) – 7:05 p.m, MASN/WUSA9
Unlike Leake, Garcia will be coming to this start trying to shake off a bad outing last time out. On May 22 against the Diamondbacks, Garcia went only 2.1 innings, gave up five runs on ten hits, and walked one in a loss. Even though the right-hander has lost back-to-back games, he had given up only three runs in his three starts prior to May 22.
Garcia is one of those pitchers who is going to try to make the opponent hit the ball on the ground. He has induced 10+ groundball outs in four consecutive outings and in five of his last six starts. Plus, he has given up only two home runs this season.
One of those home runs came against the Nats back on April 30 (Jayson Werth). Garcia went 6.1 innings, gave up four runs on four hits, struck out six, and walked three in the loss. He is 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts vs. Washington. Werth is 6-for-20 (.300) against him with two home runs and six RBI’s.
Ever since that bad outing in Chicago, Scherzer has looked like an ace. In his last outing against the Marlins, Scherzer went eight innings, gave up two runs on six hits, and struck out eight to pick up his fifth win of the season.
The Nats’ right-hander has given up two runs in each of his last three outings and has struck out 38 batters. He has seven or more strikeouts in six straight outings and his 54 strikeouts this month are second in baseball behind Clayton Kershaw (55).
Back on May 1, Scherzer threw seven shutout innings, gave up four hits, and struck out nine in a win over the Cardinals. He has given up four runs in three games vs. St. Louis since joining the Washington Nationals. If Matt Carpenter plays, he is 5-for-10 with two RBI’s.
Prediction: Even though the Cardinals have a strong lineup, Scherzer is starting to look like an ace once again and that means good things for the Washington Nationals. The Nats find a way to get to Garcia early like in the previous matchup and pick up their first win of the series.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Adam Wainwright (4-3, 5.77) vs. Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 2.87) – 7:15 p.m, FOX
Last season, Wainwright missed most of the season because of a torn ACL. While Wainwright’s ERA is high to start the season, he has shown some improvement this month (4.50 ERA in May after a 7.16 ERA in April).
The 34-year-old right-hander has not lost one game since April 22 against the Padres. In his last start against the Cubs on Monday, he went six innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out four, and walked three in a no-decision. He has given up three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.
Wainwright is 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA in 13 games (11 starts) against the Nats in his career, but he has not faced them since 2014 when he threw a complete game, two-hit shutout. Bryce Harper is 6-for-15 (.400) against him with two doubles and two walks.
In his last start against the Mets on Monday, Gio Gonzalez had his worst outing of the season by far. The left-hander went five innings, gave up seven runs on ten hits, struck out seven, and walked none in his first loss since April 27 against the Phillies.
One of the things Gonzalez struggled with in his last start was giving up the long ball. After giving up only three home runs in his first eight starts, Gonzalez gave up three home runs against the Mets and allowed more earned runs than any other start.
Gonzalez didn’t face St. Louis in the last series, but he is 2-1 with a 1.54 ERA in five career starts against them. Yadier Molina is 6-for-15 (.400) against him with three doubles and two RBI’s.
Prediction: The one X-factor going into this game is whether or not Gonzalez will get Jose Lobaton back behind the plate after pitching to Wilson Ramos on Monday. If that is the case, the Washington Nationals will win this game Saturday night in a pitcher’s duel with Wainwright.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Michael Wacha (2-5, 5.04) vs. Stephen Strasburg (8-0, 2.79) – 1:35 p.m, MASN/WUSA9
Last season, Michael Wacha was 17-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 30 starts. However, the 24-year-old right-hander is off to a bad start in 2016. Wacha has only gone four innings in each of his last three starts. Against the Cubs on Tuesday, Wacha went four innings, gave up eight runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked four in a loss.
Wacha hasn’ t won a game since April 23 against the Padres, which is a span of six starts. He has walked three or more batters in three of his last five starts and his 22 walks are the most on the team.
In three starts against the Nats, Wacha is 2-1 with a 0.79 ERA. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-11 (.273) against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
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On Tuesday night, Strasburg continued his undefeated season with another strong outing against the Mets. He went 6.2 innings, gave up two runs on four hits, struck out 11, and walked two on 108 pitches in the win to improve his record to 8-0. Plus, the Nats have won 14 straight games that he’s pitched, dating back to last season.
Strasburg, who has given up six combined runs in his last three starts, has had three double-digit strikeout games in his last four outings. This month, he does have a 3.41 ERA, but his 46 K’s are third in the National League behind Scherzer and Kershaw.
Next: Recap: Nats Shut Out By Mets In Series Finale
The Nats’ right-hander is 1-2 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals. On April 29, Strasburg went seven innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out nine, and walked one in a win. Matt Holliday is 6-for-12 with two doubles and a RBI against him.
Prediction: Despite Wacha’s bad numbers lately, his career numbers against Washington do give him a chance in this game. However, I like the Washington Nationals’ chances to pick up another win for Strasburg.