Washington Nationals at Phillies Series Preview (5/30-6/1)

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May 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Odubel Herrera (37) hits a bunt single during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

The Washington Nationals begin a ten game road trip tonight at Citizens Bank Park against the Philadelphia Phillies

This past weekend, the Washington Nationals (30-21) were able to split a four game series at home against the Cardinals. Despite bad pitching performances from Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez, the Nats were able to hit the long ball in this series. In the four games, the team had nine home runs. That was capped off in yesterday’s game by a pinch-hit grand slam from Jayson Werth.

On this Memorial Day, the Nats are 1/2 game ahead of the Mets in the NL East after New York won their game this afternoon against the White Sox. Tonight, the Nats begin a three game series at Citizens Bank Park against the Philadelphia Phillies (26-24), who enter tonight in a tie for third place in the NL East with the Marlins (3.5 games back).

This month, Pete Mackanin’s team is 12-14 in May and they are 3-7 in their last ten games. However, they have been excellent in one-run games this season (14-4). Philadelphia is 4-2 against Washington this season, including a three-game sweep of the Nats at Nats Park back on April 26-28. While Bryce Harper has not had his best month, he has two home runs in his last four games and is 7-for-11 in four games at Citizens Bank Park with three home runs and six RBI’s this season.

This month, the Phillies have scored the fewest runs of any team in the National League (80). Despite the lack of runs, center fielder Odubel Herrera (.320, five home runs, 17 RBI’s) is hitting .327 this month with three home runs and eight RBI’s. But, the best hitter on the team is still third baseman Maikel Franco (.253, eight home runs, 28 RBI’s). Franco has hit three home runs and driven in 14 runs this month.

On the mound, the Phillies’ starters have a 3.96 ERA this year (seventh in the NL) and the fifth most strikeouts (Nats lead the NL with 332). The rotation has struggled a little bit in May with Aaron Nola (Tuesday’s starter) having the only ERA below three this month on the staff (3-1, 2.18 ERA in five starts).

The surprise of this Phillies’ team has been the late-inning duo of Hector Neris and closer Jeanmar Gomez. Neris has a 1.29 ERA in 26 games, has 37 strikeouts to just seven walks, and he has a 0.98 ERA in the eighth inning this season. As for Gomez, he leads the National League in saves with 17 in 18 chances.

Before the series gets underway tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

May 18, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jeremy Hellickson (58) pitches during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

Tanner Roark (3-4, 2.71) vs. Jeremy Hellickson (4-3, 3.97) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN

Even in a loss against the New York Mets in his last start, Roark put up another quality outing. He went seven innings, gave up two runs (one earned run) on five hits, struck out five, and walked two on 113 pitches. The only mistake he made was in the first inning when David Wright hit a solo home run.

One thing that has been evident about Roark’s season is that manager Dusty Baker has been letting him work up his pitch count in games. The right-hander has thrown over 100 pitches in five straight games and over 110 pitches in three of his last five. He is 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in five starts this month.

Roark faced the Phillies at Nats Park back on April 28 at Nats Park. He went seven innings, gave up no runs on two hits, struck out six, and walked two in a no-decision. Ryan Howard is 4-for-12 (.333) against Roark in his career with one home run and six RBI’s.

As for Hellickson, he is coming off a loss in his last outing against the Detroit Tigers. Back on May 24, the right-hander went seven innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out seven, and walked one in a loss.

But, the 29-year-old right-hander has given up three runs or fewer in three of his last four starts after giving up six runs against the Cardinals back on May 2. If the Nats want to get to Hellickson, they have to break out the offense early in the game. He has given up eight runs in the first inning this season.

Heliickson has made two starts against the Nats this season and has had mixed results. On April 15, he gave up five earned runs (six total) in three innings in a loss. 12 days later, he shut out the Nats and gave up only two hits in seven innings of work while striking out eight and walking three. Jayson Werth is 3-for-11 (.273) against him with one home run and six RBI’s.

Prediction: I expect this game to be a close pitcher’s duel between Roark and Hellickson. Even though I think Werth will find a way to have another big game, I will give the slight edge to Hellickson as the Phillies take the series opener.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

May 26, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Joe Ross (41) pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Joe Ross (4-4, 2.52) vs. Aaron Nola (4-3, 2.86) – 7:05 p.m, MASN2

The starter who had the best outing against the Cardinals in the last series was Joe Ross. On Thursday night, he went seven innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out four, and walked one on a season-high 111 pitches to pick up his first win in the month of May.

Even though Ross has allowed a home run in four consecutive games, he has given up six earned runs in his last three starts. In fact, the one aspect of his start that was the most impressive was when Baker stuck with Ross in the seventh and he got Kolten Wong to ground into an inning-ending double play to preserve the 2-1 lead.

In his one start against the Phillies this season (April 15), Ross went 7.2 innings, gave up three hits, struck out five, and walked two in a win. The only two Phillies with hits against Ross are Freddy Galvis (1-for-3) and Herrera (1-for-2).

Tomorrow, Ross will go up against the starter with the lowest ERA on the Phillies’ staff in Aaron Nola. In his last start against the Tigers on May 25, he went six innings, gave up four runs (two earned) on six hits, struck out six, and walked one in a win.

This season, teams are only hitting .200 against the 22-year-old right-hander (turns 23 Saturday), which is the fifth lowest in the National League. Plus, his 0.92 WHIP is third in the NL behind two Cy Young award winners, Jake Arrieta (0.90) and Clayton Kershaw (0.65).

Nola is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two starts against Washington this season. He gave up seven runs on seven hits in five innings in a loss on April 16. 12 days later, he shut out the Nats and gave up two hits and struck out seven over seven innings in a no-decision. Bryce Harper is 6-for-10 (.600) against Nola with two home runs and four RBI’s.

Prediction: This will be a fun battle to watch between two young pitchers. However, the one stat that makes me decide to pick the Nats in this one is the home/road splits. Ross has a 1.61 ERA in five road starts (3.51 at home) while Nola has a 4.85 ERA in four home starts (1.58 on the road).

Next: Wednesday's Matchup

May 27, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws to the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /

Max Scherzer (5-4, 4.05) vs. Adam Morgan (1-3, 6.67) – 7:05 p.m, MASN2

The problem for Scherzer in his last start was the third inning when his lack of command ended up backfiring. He did go seven innings, but Scherzer gave up five runs on eight hits, struck out six, and walked four in a loss. The big mistake was a grand slam hit by Stephen Piscotty in that third inning.

Even though Scherzer had his command issues, he did end up retiring the last 14 batters in order to end his outing. But, that outing against St. Louis was the second time he has walked four batters in a game and he hasn’t won back-to-back games since his first two outings of the year.

In two starts against the Phillies this season, Scherzer is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA. However, despite not having a loss, Philadelphia is hitting .250 against him (second highest batting average of the NL East teams this season). Herrera is 5-for-16 (.313) against Scherzer with a solo home run.

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Morgan recently joined the Phillies’ rotation back on April 29 against the Indians. On Friday, he struggled in his outing against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. He went four innings, gave up six runs on eight hits, struck out three, and walked one in a loss.

The 26-year-old left-hander is in his second full season in the big leagues after making his debut in June of last year. In those six games he’s started this year, he has only gone past the fifth inning once and teams are hitting .292 against him. According to Fangraphs, Morgan has an average velocity of about 91 miles per hour on his fastball to go with a slider, curveball, and changeup.

While Morgan has not faced the Washington Nationals in his career, two batters have had two at-bats against him. Those two are Daniel Murphy (0-for-2) and Ben Revere (1-for-2).

Next: Nats Team Awards At 1st Quarter Mark

Prediction: Even though the Nats haven’t had much experience against Morgan, I think they will find a way to win the rubber game of this series behind a strong outing from Scherzer as he bounces back from a bad outing against the Cardinals.

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