Washington Nationals at Reds Series Preview (6/3-6/5)
The Washington Nationals begin a three game series tonight at Great American Ballpark against the Cincinnati Reds
To start off this nine game road trip, the Washington Nationals (33-21) swept the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Even though Bryce Harper missed the last two games after being hit in the knee with a pitch by Jeremy Hellickson, the Nats outscored the Phillies 12-3 in those games and 16-6 in the series.
As they head into the weekend, there is a buzz around the Nats as the team officially called up shortstop Trea Turner to the big leagues as first baseman Ryan Zimmerman was officially put on the paternity list.
The #Nats have recalled INF Trea Turner and placed 1B Ryan Zimmerman on the Paternity List.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) June 3, 2016
The Nats will continue their road trip tonight at Great American Ball Park against the Cincinnati Reds (19-35), a team that is currently looking to rebuild for the future. Bryan Price’s team comes into this series having won three out of four against the Rockies at Coors Field in their last series. But, the Reds are in last in the NL Centrai, trailing the Cubs by 19 games.
On offense, the Reds are tied with the Cubs for the fifth most home runs in the National League. Even though the Reds traded Todd Frazier this winter, their offense still has right fielder Jay Bruce (36 RBI’s), first baseman Joey Votto (.342 on-base percentage), and second baseman Brandon Phillips (.254, six home runs, 23 RBI’s).
However, the surprise on this offense is 27-year-old left fielder Adam Duvall. Duvall, who was acquired in the Mike Leake trade from the Giants last July, has 14 home runs and a .586 slugging percentage this season. Plus, shortstop Zack Cosart leads the team in hitting with a .306 batting average.
The problem for the Reds has been their pitching. This season, their starters have a 5.08 and have won only 11 games (second fewest in the NL). It is a team that has four starters on the disabled list, including Homer Bailey (Tommy John surgery) and Raisel Iglesias. During the month of May, only one starter had an ERA lower than four (Dan Straily).
While the rotation has had its struggles, so has the bullpen. Cincinnati’s relievers have the worst ERA in the National League (6.62) and they have given up 42 home runs. That is 14 more than any other team in the NL (Brewers – 28). Plus, they have eight relievers that have given up at least three home runs this season. Their closer is Tony Cingrani, who has four saves in six chances.
Coming into this series, the biggest storyline might just be the return of Dusty Baker to Cincinnati. Baker’s last managerial stop in DC was in Cincinnati, where he had a .524 winning percentage in six seasons and won two NL Central titles.
Before this series starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (3-3, 3.57 ERA) vs. Brandon Finnegan (1-4, 4.14) – 7:10 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Gonzalez had a great start to his season, but his last two starts have taken him three steps back. Against the Mets and the Cardinals, the left-hander has given up 13 earned runs over the course of 9.2 innings. In his start against the Cardinals on May 28, Gonzalez went 4.2 innings, gave up six runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked four in a loss.
Once again, the problem that Gonzalez had last year has been when he gets in a jam, he can’t get himself out of it. He gave up five runs in the first three innings against St. Louis in the loss. Despite having 16 first pitch strikes, only 59 of his 98 pitches ended up being strikes.
In six career starts against the Reds, Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA. Joey Votto is 5-for-12 (.417) against Gonzalez with two home runs and four RBI’s.
Finnegan was one of the pitchers that was dealt to Cincinnati when Johnny Cueto was traded to the Royals at last year’s trade deadline. The 23-year-old left-hander has not won a start since April 16 against the St. Louis Cardinals. In his last start against the Brewers on May 29, Finnegan went 6.1 innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out four, and walked four in a loss.
The problem for Finnegan in his first full season as a starter has been his control. He has 31 walks this season (4+ walks in five of his 11 starts), which are the third most of any pitcher in the National League. But, his 63 innings are the most of any pitcher in the Reds’ rotation.
Finnegan started against the Nats last year in the makeup game on September 28. He went five innings, gave up three runs on eight hits, struck out three, and walked two in a loss to Max Scherzer. Wilson Ramos went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in that game.
Prediction: With Gonzalez’s recent struggles, I think this is the game that the Reds have the best chance to win. With that being said, I think the Nats offense does enough against Finnegan and takes advantage of his lack of control to get a win in the first game of the series.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Stephen Strasburg (9-0, 2.69) vs. Dan Straily (3-2, 5.43) – 4:10 p.m, MASN
On Saturday afternoon, Strasburg will be trying to become the first pitcher in all of baseball to get his 10th win of the year. In his last start against the Cardinals, Strasburg only struck out four batters, but he gave up only one run over six innings.
In the month of May, Strasburg was 5-0 with a 3.11 ERA in six starts. This season, he has been really good on the road. In six road starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA and has yet to give up a home run (4-0 with a 3.54 ERA at Nats Park).
Against the Reds, Strasburg is 1-`1 with a 4.68 ERA. Last season, he left his start at Great American Ball Park after one inning because of injury. Jay Bruce is 3-for-7 (.429) with a double and two RBI’s against him.
Before the season, the Reds acquired Straily off waivers from the San Diego Padres. He has appeared in 12 games this season, with nine of those being starts. The 27-year-old right-hander has gone six or more innings in six of his last seven starts.
Back on May 30 against the Rockies, Straily went six innings, gave up five runs on eight hits, struck out for, and walked three in a victory. In his last six starts, he is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA. Surprisingly, he has been good at home in a hitter’s ball park (2.90 ERA and an opponents’ batting average of .187).
While Straily has never faced the Washington Nationals in his career, there is one hitter in the lineup who has faced him. That hitter is Daniel Murphy (0-for-3).
Prediction: With Straily’s success at home, I expect the Reds to stay in this game, but in the end, I like Strasburg and the Nats to win the game and for Strasburg to pick up his 10th win.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Tanner Roark (4-4, 2.70) vs. Jon Moscot (0-3, 7.13) – 1:10 p.m, MASN2
In each of Roark’s last starts, he has pitched into the seventh innings. Back on May 30 against the Phillies, he went seven innings, gave up two runs on four hits, struck out four, and walked two to pick up his fourth win of the season.
Against the Phillies, Roark had success inducing groundball outs. His 14 groundball outs were the second most he has had in a start this season (17 against the Marlins on April 18). Over his last 20.2 innings, the right-hander has given up four earned runs and he has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.
Roark is 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three career starts against the Reds and has given up four runs in 19 innings. Brandon Phillips is 3-for-6 (.500) against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
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As for Moscot, he was a fourth round pick of the Reds back in 2012 and made his Major League debut in June of last season. In the three starts he made last season, he was 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA.
This season, Moscot has struggled with giving up home runs, especially in his last outing against the Rockies. On May 30, the 24-year-old right-hander went two innings, gave up seven runs on eight hits, struck out one, and gave up four home runs in the Reds’ 17-4 loss.
Moscot has given up eight home runs in four outings and has not struck out more than two batters in any start (seven strikeouts in 17.2 innings). The only hitter in the Nats’ lineup to have faced Moscot before is leadoff hitter Ben Revere (1-for-3).
Next: Murphy Named NL Player Of Month For May
Prediction: While I don’t usually like to predict sweeps, I think the Washington Nationals are coming into this series with great momentum. If Roark can put together another quality outing and with the way the Nats’ offense has hit home runs lately, Washington gets the win here and finishes off their second sweep of the road trip.