Washington Nationals vs. Cubs Series Preview (6/13-6/15)
Tonight, the Washington Nationals begin a three game series against the Cubs. Here’s our preview.
This month, the Washington Nationals (39-24) have been able to have a ton of success offensively. In the nine games they have played this month, the Nats have scored 66 runs (most in the National League) and have six games of seven or more runs scored.
Over the weekend, the Nats swept the Philadelphia Phillies for the second time this season. They did it in dramatic fashion when Jayson Werth hit a walk-off single with two outs and the bases loaded in yesterday’s win. They are now 4.5 games up on the Mets in the NL East, but their toughest challenge comes tonight when the Chicago Cubs (43-18) come into Nats Park.
Last month (May 5-May 8), the Cubs swept the Washington Nationals in all four games at Wrigley Field with every game being decided by three runs or fewer. Both teams look a little different this time around with Ben Revere now having more playing time since that last series as he came back from the oblique injury. On the Cubs’ side, they called up prospect Albert Almora when Jorge Soler went on the disabled list with a hamstring injury.
One important aspect of that series was the way that the Cubs pitched to Bryce Harper. Harper was walked 13 times in the four games and had only four official at-bats. Ryan Zimmerman couldn’t take advantage of those opportunities he had to drive in runs (2-for-19, five strikeouts). Since that series, Baker switched Daniel Murphy and Zimmerman’s spots in the batting order.
It’s no secret that Joe Maddon’s club is the best team in baseball right now. They have won eight of their last 11, 21 of their last 34 games, and are nine games ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Central. Their offense has scored the third most runs in the NL and they lead the league in on-base percentage (.351).
In his last 27 games, third baseman Kris Bryant (.280, 15 home runs, 45 RBI’s) has nine home runs and 21 RBI’s while first baseman Anthony Rizzo (.264, 14 home runs, 47 RBI’s) has four home runs and 18 RBI’s in his last 26 games. While the Nats have a strong second baseman in Murphy, Ben Zobrist is hitting .324 with a .431 on-base percentage and he was 6-for-13 against the Nats last month with three home runs and nine RBI’s.
Just like the last visit the Nats made to Chicago (vs. White Sox), the team is avoiding the top two starters in the rotation. This time, it is Jake Arrieta (10-1, 1.86 ERA) and Jon Lester (8-3, 1.89 ERA) who will not be facing Washington. However, Cubs’ starters have the lowest ERA (2.30), the lowest WHIP (0.97), and the third most strikeouts (Nats are first).
As for the bullpen, the Cubs’ 3.42 ERA is fourth in the NL and closer Hector Rondon is 11-for-11 in saves, has a 1.33 ERA, and has 29 strikeouts to only two walks. But, according to George A. King III of the New York Post, the Cubs had a scout looking at the Yankees’ Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman this weekend. If the Yankees do decide to sell, could the Cubs add another potent arm to that ‘pen?
Before the series starts tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Kyle Hendricks (4-5, 2.90 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (7-4, 3.57) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN/ESPN
One of the pitchers that are getting overlooked in the Cubs rotation is Kyle Hendricks. Even though he lost against the Phillies in his last start, he had a good outing. In five innings, he gave up two runs on four hits, struck out six, and walked two.
Even though the 26-year-old went 2-2 in the month of May, he had a 2.23 ERA and held opponents to a .183 batting average. He has given up more than three earned runs in two of his last ten starts. His WHIP of 0.894 is the third lowest in the National League, behind only his teammate John Lackey (0.93) and Clayton Kershaw (0.65).
Against the Washington Nationals, Hendricks is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts. Back on May 5, he held the Nats to just two hits over six innings in a win. Bryce Harper is 2-for-7 (.286) with a solo home run against him in his career.
In his last start against the White Sox, Scherzer was able to pitch great after the offense gave him some early run support. He went seven innings, gave up no runs on five hits, struck out six, and walked one in the win.
Scherzer has won back-to-back starts for only the second time this season and he has given up two runs over his last 15 innings. Even though he continues to give the Nats length in games (88.1 innings pitched this year), the stat that will be in the spotlight tonight is the home runs.
Against the White Sox, Scherzer did not give up a home run for the first time since May 1. Tonight, he faces an opponent that he struggled mightily the last time he faced them. Back on May 6 at Wrigley Field, Scherzer gave up seven runs on seven hits in five innings, including four home runs in a loss to the Cubs.
Scherzer is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs. Ben Zobrist is 5-for-22 (.227) with three home runs and six RBI’s against him.
Prediction: While I expect Scherzer to pitch better than that last Cubs start and the Washington Nationals have played better offensively, they haven’t been able to have success against Hendricks (three earned runs in 18 innings). If that trend holds, I like the Cubs to win the opener tonight.
John Lackey (7-2, 2.63) vs. Gio Gonzalez (3-5, 3.93) – 7:05 p.m ET, MASN/MLB Network
Right now, at 37 years old, John Lackey is one of the best pitchers in the National League. Against the Phillies back on June 8, Lackey gave up three hits over seven innings and struck out eight to pick up his seventh win of the year.
Lackey is 3-0 in his last five starts and his last loss was a 1-0 defeat against the San Diego Padres on May 11. During the month of May, he was 2-1 with a 2.09 ERA in four starts with opposing hitters hitting .170. He is in the top ten in ERA and strikeouts in the National League, second in WHIP, and he hasn’t allowed a run in two starts.
Back on May 11, Lackey went seven innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out a season-high 11, and walked one in a win over the Nats. He is 2-0 with a 3.58 ERA in five career starts vs. Washington. Jayson Werth is 7-for-17 (.421) with four doubles, a home run, and three RBI’s against Lackey.
Despite having a much better outing in his last start, Gonzalez has now lost four straight starts. Against the White Sox on June 9, he went seven innings, gave up three runs (all in the first inning) on five hits, struck out ten (season-high) and walked two in the loss.
Over this four game losing streak, Gonzalez has given up 21 earned runs over 22.2 innings. The problem for Gonzalez in that start against Chicago was not being able to get out of trouble early. Out of the 31 runs he’s given up this year, 20 of them have come in the first three innings.
On May 7 against the Cubs, Gonzalez went 5.2 innings, gave up five runs on seven hits, struck out two, and walked one in a no-decision. He is 3-2 with a 3.10 ERA in eight career outings vs. Chicago. Dexter Fowler is 8-for-17 (.471) with a double, a triple, a home run, and three RBI’s against him.
Prediction: With Lackey doing a good job keeping the opposition off the scoreboard as of late, I would expect him to put together another quality outing. The key will be whether or not Gonzalez can avoid the early inning woes against a strong lineup. However, it’s tough to trust Gonzalez going into this start, so I have the Cubs winning game two.
Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.36) vs. Stephen Strasburg (10-0, 3.03) – 4:05 p.m ET, MASN
Hammel picked up one of the Cubs’ two losses this week when he lost on Friday against the Braves. In 5.2 innings, he gave up three runs on eight hits and struck out four in a win on only 77 pitches.
When you look at the Cubs’ rotation, Hammel has the third lowest road ERA on the staff (2.57) behind only Arrieta and Lester (not pitching this series). Plus, he has given up more than three runs in a game only once over his last 11 starts.
Back on May 7, Hammel gave up three runs on four hits, struck out three, and walked four in a no-decision against the Nats. But, he continues to remain undefeated against Washington in his career (9-0 with a 3.16 ERA in 12 outings). Ryan Zimmerman is 12-for-38 (.316) with three doubles, a home run, and six RBI’s in his career against Hammel.
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You could make the case that Strasburg’s last start against the Phillies on Friday was one of the worst starts of the season. But, thanks to the offense, he found a way to get his tenth win of the year. He went seven innings, gave up four runs on five hits, struck out ten, and walked one in the win.
With that win, Strasburg has now won 13 consecutive decisions and he continues to strike out hitters at a high rate. He has ten or more K’s in four of his last five starts and his 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings are second in the National League behind the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez (13.1).
During that last series against the Cubs, Strasburg didn’t make a start. He is 0-1 with a 2.18 ERA in three starts vs. Chicago, but he hasn’t faced them since 2013. Jason Heyward is 14-for-34 (.412) against Strasburg with three doubles, a home run, and four RBI’s.
Next: Nats Player Of The Week (6/7-6/12): Danny Espinosa
Prediction: If my predictions hold true for the first two games, this will be one of those games where the Nats need to find a way to win. If they can show the same patience like they did last month against Hammel and turn those walks to runs, they should provide Strasburg with enough run support to pick up his 11th win of the year.