Washington Nationals: What to Watch For in Upcoming Cubs Series
We give you the three things to watch for in this week’s Washington Nationals series against the Chicago Cubs
Tonight, the Washington Nationals will begin a three game series against the Chicago Cubs at Nats Park. Why is this series the most important of this season thus far? Chicago is the best team in baseball, and the Nats will need to figure out a way to beat them if anything of importance will be accomplished this season. Also, Washington needs to redeem itself after the way the last series ended.
The two teams first met in a four-game set at Wrigley on May 5-8. While each game was competitive (each game decided by three runs or fewer), the Cubs outscored the Washington Nationals 25-16 and swept the series. The Cubs did pitch two of their better starters, Jake Arrieta (10-1, 2.56 FIP, 1.86 ERA) and Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.36 ERA, 3.28 FIP)
It was still an underwhelming series for the Washington Nationals. At least a 3-1 series was the expectation. There still isn’t any meaningful stakes; it’s not a divisional matchup, and three games don’t mean much in baseball. But Chicago is the team to beat, and this upcoming series is the last chance in the regular season to salvage some wins against a team that they could be seeing in October.
As these two teams get set to begin the series, here are my three things to watch for as the Washington Nationals look for their redemption against Joe Maddon‘s Cubs.
Next: Win The Battle Of Starting Pitching
Battle Of Starting Rotations
The Cubs’ 25-man roster has no glaring weaknesses from top to bottom. The pitching, while not made up of staples other than Arrieta, Jon Lester, and maybe Lackey, gets the job done time and time again. Chicago’s pitching is second in the MLB in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), a stat the takes into account walks, home runs, strikeouts, and hit batters per inning and churns it into one stat. It can be read just like ERA; a 2.68 ERA is fantastic just as a 2.68 FIP is.
It’s big brother, xFIP, factors in the number of home runs that should’ve been allowed given the number of fly balls allowed and a league average HR/FB%. The Cubs are second in this stat as well (according to Fangraphs)
This is my new favorite pitching stat because (1), it reveals a rotation’s — or individual players — talent in a much clearer manner than ERA or W/L does. It takes errors and the speed and arms of infielders and outfielders out of the equation. (2), the Nats are the best in baseball in xFIP!
By taking into account league average and regression to the mean, xFIP is the best barometer of current and future pitching performance. The Nats, Cubs, Mets and Dodgers are the best in both stats this year.
This is key. Why? The Cubs’ and Nats’ starting pitching staffs can’t get much better. xFIP has a consistent track record, and it tells us that what we’ve seen thus far is what we are going to see once playoff time arrives. Therefore, all the focus is on the offenses and bullpens.
An eye-opening Chicago stat is its run differential; it’s an insane +162) as of June 12. The Nats are third in this category with a +76. The Cubs lineup has it all, and has shown remarkable consistency. Its 5.37 runs per game is good for third overall in the league, and the team is 7-3 in its last ten with 58 runs scored.
It’s tough to stop a lineup like that without a lot of luck, even with a league-leading xFIP. Therefore, I’m going into this series with the same mindset as the last. While wins would be nice, it’s important to focus on the two things that have to be done well against a team this good.
Next: Offense Needs To Continue
Offense Needs To Continue
On offense, the Nats have scored 66 runs already in just nine games in June (most in the National League). However, they’ve been against Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and the Chicago White Sox. The Reds are dead last in xFIP by a large margin (5.07 to 4.53 in 29th) and the White Sox are 15th at 4.20. Philadelphia has defied all expectations in this department, coming in 7th at 3.78. While that’s impressive, the Nats are one of the few teams to figure them out; 38 of the 66 runs this month came against the Phillies.
This isn’t the top pitching the Nats will face in the playoffs. The Cubs have that. The offensive stats thus far are deceiving due to the low quality of opponents Washington has faced thus far. All 11 opponents have a 4.14 combined xFIP, roughly average. But, eight of those opponents are in the bottom half of the league in that stat. This is not an accurate representation of what we will see from the Nats offense in October.
Again, it’s games against teams like the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants that are most telling — especially when top-three starters are pitching. Not the 40 games against the Marlins and Braves.
The offense is the Washington Nationals’ biggest weakness right now; Bryce Harper has to wake up for anything to happen this season, it’s that simple. Daniel Murphy will end up hitting around .330, which is fantastic, but not enough to sustain the other eight bats in the lineup. Whether the Nats can draw walks, string hits together, and score runs against quality pitching is the difference maker.
Next: A Consistent Bullpen
A Consistent Bullpen
There still isn’t a clear solution for the eighth inning and the fantastic performances of the rest of the bullpen are still in too small of a sample size. Felipe Rivero has been, by far, the worst member (5.46 ERA, 3.61 FIP), even though he has been a bit unlucky (2.92 xFIP).
It will be interesting to see how he evens out the rest of the season. Blake Treinen‘s 2.30 ERA is deceiving due to his 3.92 FIP. Shaun Kelley has been the best thus far (2.91 ERA, 2.23 FIP).
What the Nats will need for the rest of the season, and especially against top offenses like the Cubs, are confident and consistent relievers, preferably three, for the eighth and ninth innings. We know Kelley has the chops to be one of them if he stays healthy.
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Jonathan Papelbon‘s 4.66 xFIP and 3.04 walks per nine innings are concerning. Is he the permanent closer? He’s done well thus far (16 saves). He very well could be the permanent closer despite giving up the solo home run to Maikel Franco in the ninth inning yesterday.
If Rivero continues his underwhelming performance, the Nats should look to add another reliever through a trade to complement Kelley and Papelbon. The starters have shown they can go deep into games, so those last two innings are what really matter.
This Cubs series will reveal a lot about the bullpen. If the offense knocks the Nats’ starter out earlier than usual, which is very possible, there needs to be another reliever that steps up other than Yusmeiro Petit in long relief.
Next: Recap: Nats Win On Werth Walk-Off
Whether the Washington Nationals win or lose, some offensive success and consistency out of the bullpen are the keys to what should be taken out of this series. We’ve still got a long way to go, but these are the most important three games since last September against the Mets.