Gio Gonzalez (3-5, 3.96 ERA) vs. Drew Pomeranz (5-7, 2.88 ERA) 4:40 p.m. ET, broadcast on MASN
Gonzalez has had a strange season on the mound for the Nats. The ERA for him is nearly at four, but he’s given up just eight home runs.The problem is that he has issued 23 walks and allowed 75 hits in 77.1 innings, which has led to a 1.26 WHIP. He has an excellent SO/9 of 9.3, and his FIP is 3.38.
Gonzalez has allowed three runs or less in four of his last seven starts. In nine of his 13 starts, he has pitched six or more innings. The lefty has held opposing teams to a .252 average, and left-handed batters have posted a .200 batting average facing him.
Gonzalez has been decent on the road, as indicated by his 3.55 ERA in six starts away from Nationals Park. However, he has to perform better with runners in scoring position, as opposing teams have a .411 average and 1.051 OPS in this situation.
He has no problems the first time through the batting order, as he holds opponents to a .185 average. With that being said, the issues are the second and third time through the lineup, as teams are hitting .250 and .341, respectively.
Gonzalez has a 3.38 ERA in four career starts against the Padres. Derek Norris is 3-for-4 with two home runs and six RBI’s in his career against Gonzalez.
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Pomeranz has been the ace of the Padres’ rotation for this season, considering he’s the only pitcher who has started at least 10 games and posted a sub-three ERA. He has struck out 89 batters, allowed just five home runs; his FIP is 3.11, and his SO/9 is 10.7.
The left-hander did have issues in his last start against the Miami Marlins (five runs in five innings), but it was just the second outing of the season that he yielded more than three earned runs.
The southpaw has pitched at least six innings in seven starts this year. Pomeranz is limiting opposing teams to a .189 batting average, and left-handed batters are hitting only .182.
He is productive at home, as indicated by his 2.60 ERA in six starts at PETCO. He has been nearly untouchable with runners in scoring position, as the opposition has a .148 batting average in this situation.
Pomeranz has made one career start facing the Nats, and it was impressive. He tossed 6.1 scoreless innings and gave up just one hit. But, that start came back in 2012. The only Nats player with a hit against him is Bryce Harper (1-for-2).
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Prediction: This seems like a trap game for the Nats. They have a solid pitcher on the mound in Gonzalez against a team that has problems scoring runs, but I think Pomeranz helps the Padres avoid a series sweep.