Washington Nationals At Padres Series Preview (6/16-6/19)

The Washington Nationals were impressive during the home stand, as they won both series. They begin a 10-game road trip with the San Diego Padres on Thursday.

After sweeping the last series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Washington Nationals (41-25) faced a major test in their recent series against the Chicago Cubs and passed it with flying colors. They won two out of three games against one of the better teams in the National League.

The positive aspect regarding the series overall is the Nats are showing they’re capable of winning close games. The team is 11-7 in one-run games during 2016 and it’s terrific for them moving forward.

The other highlight continues to be the clutch hitting from left fielder Jayson Werth. Werth delivered his second walk-off hit in the last four days on Wednesday to give the Nats a series victory.

Werth is heating up as he is hitting a scorching .361 over his last 10 games with four extra-base hits and 11 RBI. Werth has a .353 average and .950 OPS in late and close situations this season.

Tonight, the Washington Nationals will begin a road trip on the West Coast facing the San Diego Padres (27-40) in the opener of a four-game series at PETCO Park. The Padres have been a major disappointment this year, as they sit 14 games out of first place in the NL West.

The Padres have found it tough to score runs (11^th in the NL with 268 runs) consistently this year, considering they have been shut out 10 times this year. However, there are some players finding success at the plate.

Wil Myers is in the midst of a solid campaign with 14 home runs, 39 RBI, 13 doubles and a .281 average in 277 plate appearances. Jon Jay leads the club in hitting by compiling a .290 batting average and has amassed 22 doubles.

Even though Melvin Upton Jr. is hitting at just a .246 clip, but the low average is very misleading. He has 19 extra-base hits, 30 RBI, and 13 stolen bases.

The Padres don’t have the best starting rotation, as their staff is 10^th in the Senior Circuit with a 4.45 ERA. There is only one pitcher in the rotation that has made at least 10 starts and posted a sub-three ERA; we’ll get to him later.

Andy Green‘s squad is still without their Opening Day starer, Tyson Ross, who is currently on the disabled list since then with shoulder inflammation.

The bullpen for the Padres has experienced some struggles as well. Their relievers have compiled a 4.62 ERA (14^th in the NL), and they have blown nine saves. However, closer Fernando Rodney is perfect in 13 save opportunities and has yet to allow a run in 23.1 innings.

Before this series get started tonight, here is my breakdown of the four pitching matchups:

Next: Tonight's Matchup

Tanner Roark (5-4, 2.93 ERA) vs. Erik Johnson (0-3, 7.71 ERA) 10:10 p.m. ET, broadcast on MASN

Roark has been a solid member of the Nats’ rotation, and one reason for his success is yielding just five home runs in 80 innings.

He isn’t someone that will rack up a ton of strikeouts as he has fanned just 72 batters. The right-hander has given up three earned runs or less in seven of his last nine starts, and his ERA over that stretch is 3.05.

There are just three starts this season in which he has surrendered more than three runs. Roark is limiting the opposition to a .236 average. He has a 3.75 ERA in six starts on the road. He remains effective with runners in scoring position, as teams have a .250 average in this situation.

Roark has a 0.45 ERA in three career games (two starts) against the Padres. Upton Jr, is 2-for-14 against him with five strikeouts.

Johnson was on the Chicago White Sox roster when the season started but was sent to the Padres as part of the James Shields trade. He made just two starts for the White Sox and posted a 6.94 ERA in 11.2 innings. Johnson’s debut with the Padres wasn’t terrific. He gave up five runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Rockies on June 11.

The right-handed pitcher had started just 16 games in his career before this season began. He will get a chance to prove he deserves to stay in the Padres’ rotation, considering they don’t have better alternatives.

Johnson has allowed opposing teams to hit .338 against him, and right-handed batters are hitting a robust .364 facing him. This would mark his first career start against the Washington Nationals.

Prediction: If the Nats can score runs off Johnson early and give Roark a lead, they should have no problem winning the opening game of the series.

Next: Tomorrow's Matchup

Joe Ross (5-4, 3.01 ERA) vs. Christian Friedrich (3-1, 2.12 ERA) 10:40 p.m. ET,  MASN

Ross was stellar in his previous outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, as he gave up three runs on five hits in seven inning in a no-decision.  It was great to see him bounce back, considering he lasted just four innings and allowed five runs to the White Sox in the prior outing.

Ross has pitched at least seven innings in five starts this season for the Nationals. There are eight starts that he has yielded two runs or less. He started off the year in terrific fashion, by posting a 2.29 ERA in his first six starts, but his ERA is 3.72 in his last six starts.

He is holding opponents to a .235 batting average, and right-handed batters are hitting a scant .196. He thrives on the road, as indicated by his 2.54 ERA in seven starts away from home.

Ross is lights out the first time through the batting order, as he holds the opposition to a .165 average in innings one through three. However, the second time through the order is where problems arise. The average nearly doubles, as teams are hitting .316 in innings four through six.

Ross has made just one career start against the Padres. He allowed one unearned run in six innings on August 27, 2015 in a win.

Friedrich has been one of the bright spots in the Padres’ rotation. He has allowed just one home run and walked 19 batters in 34 innings. It’s one reason for his low ERA, or maybe he’s just happy about not making not starts in Coors Field. He did spend his first three seasons in the Majors with the Rockies.

The southpaw has pitched at least five innings in five of his six starts and has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any start. Friedrich has held opposing teams to a .233 average, but left-handed batters have found some success, as they’re hitting at a .250 clip.

Friedrich has struggled at home as he has a 4.20 ERA in three outings at Petco Park. He is excellent with runners in scoring position, as the opposition has a meager .091 average in this situation.

In his career, Friedrich has a 14.00 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Washington Nationals. Ryan Zimmerman is 2-for-3 with a double and three RBI’s against him.

Prediction: The success that the Washington Nationals have had against Friedrich makes them a favorite to take the second game of the series.

Next: Saturday's Matchup

Max Scherzer (8-4, 3.40 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (3-3, 5.37 ERA) 10:10 p.m. ET, MASN

Scherzer has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the NL, as he is second in the NL with 118. However, his kryptonite has been the long ball, as he has surrendered an NL-leading 17 home runs.

The right-hander dazzled in his last start facing the Chicago Cubs. He struck out 11 batters in seven innings and allowed just one run on two hits to pick up his third straight win.

This marked the third time in the last six starts that he has struck out at least 10 batters, and the fourth start overall he reached double-digit K’s. There have been four starts in 2016 that Scherzer has surrendered four or more runs. He is solid on the road, as indicated by his 3.13 ERA in nine starts away from home.

The biggest struggles for him come early in games, as he has a 4.93 ERA in innings one through three. If he can navigate the first time through the lineup without any problems, he usually has success.

Scherzer is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in six career starts against San Diego (2.12 ERA in three starts at PETCO). Matt Kemp is 1-for-24 against Scherzer with seven strikeouts in his career,

Rea hasn’t found too much success on the mound this season. If the high ERA wasn’t bad enough, the right-hander has also suffered command issues by walking 27 batters in 65.1 innings.

He has an extremely high 9.4 hits per nine innings, and his FIP is 4.53. He was knocked around in his previous start against the Marlins, as he pitched a season-low 2.2 innings and allowed eight runs (six earned) on nine hits in a loss.

It was the fourth occurrence in 2016 that he surrendered at least four or more runs. There are just four starts in which he has completed six innings, and just three times has he thrown more than 100 pitches.

Rea has allowed opposing teams to hit .265 against him, and right-handed batters have a .275 average in 120 at-bats. He has posted a 5.52 ERA in eight starts at home, and the opposition has a .338 batting average with runners in scoring position. This would be his first career start against the Washington Nationals.

Prediction: The Nats will have no problems scoring runs in this game, given the recent struggles by Rea. I do expect Scherzer to pitch quality innings, especially if he’s given an early lead. The Nats will take the third game of the series.

Next: Sunday's Matchup?