Washington Nationals at Brewers Series Preview (6/24-6/26)
After losing five straight on the West Coast, the Washington Nationals begin a three game series tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers
It was a rough West Coast trip for the Washington Nationals (43-30) as they lost five consecutive games. They were swept by the Dodgers in all three games and had many bad things happen. Stephen Strasburg missed his Monday start, Yasmani Grandal hit a game-winning three-run home run against Tanner Roark on Tuesday, and Michael Taylor had five strikeouts and had the error in the ninth that lost the game on Wednesday.
This weekend, the Washington Nationals will look to bounce back at Miller Park when they finish their ten game road trip against the Milwaukee Brewers (32-40). Out of the next 13 games, the Nats will play the Brewers six times. The Brewers are 15.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and they have lost seven of their last nine games.
With the Brewers likely out of the playoff race, they are one of the teams to watch at the trade deadline. Left fielder Ryan Braun is hitting .320 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI’s to go with a .378 on-base percentage. Another trade name to watch is catcher Jonathan Lucroy (.305, ten home runs, 35 RBI’s).
As a team, the Brewers are tied for 23rd in baseball in runs scored and they have driven in only 73 runs this month (second fewest in the National League). Their leading home run hitter is first baseman Chris Carter (18).
Their starting pitching has the third worst ERA in the NL (4.76), but Zach Davies (tonight’s starter) has been one of their better starters. One pitcher to watch who won’t be facing the Washington Nationals this weekend is Junior Guerra (4-1, 3.67 ERA) and has held opponents to a .227 batting average.
In the bullpen, closer Jeremy Jeffress is 19-for-20 in save opportunities. Outside of Jeffress, Craig Counsell’s bullpen has given up the third most home runs of any team in the National League (33).
Before this series starts tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Max Scherzer (8-4, 3.29 ERA) vs. Zach Davies (5-3, 3.62) – 8:10 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Tonight, the Washington Nationals will need a vintage ace-like performance from Max Scherzer. In his last outing against the San Diego Padres on Saturday, Scherzer went six innings, gave up one run on four hits and struck out ten in a no-decision because the bullpen blew a late lead in the eighth.
June has been a kind month for Scherzer. He is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts and has held opponents to a .162 batting average. He has struck out ten or more batters in three of his last four starts and has given up a total of four runs in his last 28 innings.
Last year, Scherzer had an excellent start at Miller Park. On June 14, he threw a complete game, one-hit shutout while striking out 16. He had a 1.64 ERA in four games against the Brewers. Ryan Braun is 0-for-10 with five strikeouts against Scherzer.
Scherzer will be going up against Zach Davies, a 23-year-old right-hander who made his Major League debut last September. In his last start on June 17 against the Dodgers, he went seven innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out six, and walked one in a no-decision.
Even though he only has made 18 career starts, Davies is off to a great start to his Major League career. He hasn’t lost a start since April 29 against the Marlins (nine outings). Plus, he has given up two runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts.
Davies was acquired last July when they traded Gerardo Parra to the Orioles. He has an average velocity of 89 miles per hour on his fastball (according to Fangraphs) to go with a cutter, a breaking ball, and a changeup.
Prediction: With the Washington Nationals struggling to score runs, I expect this game to be a pitcher’s duel considering Davies has a 0.96 ERA in his last four outings. But, I will go with Scherzer to win a close one and snap the losing streak.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (3-6, 4.25) vs. Matt Garza (0-0, 0.90) – 4:10 p.m ET, MASN2
Gonzalez’s struggles continued in his last start against the San Diego Padres on Sunday. He went 5.1 innings, gave up six runs (five earned) on eight hits, struck out three, and walked four in a loss.
The Nats’ left-hander is 0-5 in his last six starts and has struggled with his control recently (eight walks in his last two games). Plus, he is 0-3 this month with a 5.84 ERA In four starts with opponents hitting .281 against him.
In his career against the Brewers, Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts. Aaron Hill is 4-for-17 against him with a double and two RBI’s.
As for Garza, he is making only his third start of the season on Saturday after being out for the first couple months of the season due to a lat strain. Against the Dodgers on June 19, he threw six shutout innings, gave up five hits, and struck out two in a no-decision.
The 32-year-old right-hander is one of the veterans in this Milwaukee rotation and he is trying to rebound off a bad season in 2015, In his second year with the Brewers, Garza was 6-14 with a 5.63 ERA in 27 starts. With Garza being a free agent after next season, it will be interesting if he can build up his trade value.
Against the Washington Nationals, Garza is 0-4 with a 7.17 ERA in eight career starts. Last year, he made two starts against the Nats and gave up eight runs in 10.2 innings. Wilson Ramos is 5-for-13 against Garza with one home run and five RBI’s.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
TBA vs. Jimmy Nelson (5-6, 3.92) – 2:10 p.m. ET, MASN2
As we write this preview, it has yet to be officially announced who will make this start in the series finale Sunday afternoon. This would be Stephen Strasburg’s turn in the rotation, but Strasburg missed his last start on Monday against the Dodgers because of an upper back strain.
If it is not Strasburg, the other option to make this outing is Yusmeiro Petit. Petit filled in for Strasburg Monday and put together a good outing. He went six innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out five, and walked one in a loss against Clayton Kershaw.
Strasburg is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee while Petit is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in seven career appearances.
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Jimmy Nelson has had a bad month of June, but the Brewers have only scored nine runs in the four games that he has pitched. Against the A’s on June 21, Nelson went five innings, gave up one run on six hits, struck out two, and walked one in a no-decision.
During this month, the 27-year-old right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.50 ERA and opponents are hitting .363 against him. Nelson has 37 walks this season (fifth in the National League) and he has induced 10+ groundball outs in four of his last five outings.
Next: Nats Trade Target: Aroldis Chapman
In two starts against the Washington Nationals, Nelson is 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA (both starts coming last season. Bryce Harper is 3-for-5 against him with a home run and two RBI’s.