Washington Nationals vs. Reds Preview (6/30-7/3)
The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds for a four game series this weekend. Here’s our preview
In what was an important series for the Washington Nationals (47-32), they ended up sweeping the New York Mets to begin their final homestand of the first half of the season. During the three games, the Nats outscored New York 20-6 and got good pitching performances from Lucas Giolito (MLB Debut) and Max Scherzer.
Of course, Daniel Murphy continued his domination of the Mets when he hit two home runs last night to complete the sweep and he had five RBI’s in the series. Tonight, the Nats begin a four game series against the Cincinnati Reds (29-50), who beat the Nats two out of three games at Great American Ball Park earlier this month.
Bryan Price’s club is 12-15 this month and they have lost seven of their last eight games. This month, the Reds are sixth in the National League in runs scored and ninth in home runs (32). The player to watch on the Reds is left fielder Adam Duvall, who currently leads the NL in home runs with 22.
Other players to watch on this Reds offense include right fielder Jay Bruce (.279, 17 home runs, 59 RBI’s) and first baseman Joey Votto (.244, 13 home runs, 39 RBI’s). Votto’s average is low, but he is hitting .307 in June with four home runs, nine RBI’s, and a .460 on-base percentage.
On the mound, the Reds have a team ERA of 4.67 this month, which is 11th in the NL. The return of Anthony DeSclafani has definitely helped the rotation (1.52 ERA in four June starts). That being said, Cincinnati’s starters ERA of 5.04 is still the second worst in the league.
In the bullpen, the Reds have a league-worst 6.00 ERA and have given up 61 home runs. Their closer, Tony Cingrani, is 9-for-14 in saves and has a high ERA for a closer (3.57).
Before the series starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the four pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Brandon Finnegan (3-6, 3.83 ERA) vs. Gio Gonzalez (3-7, 4.73) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN
Despite having a quality start in his last outing against the Padres, Finnegan still took the loss. He went 6.2 innings, gave up three runs on five hits, struck out eight, and walked three on 110 pitches.
The problem for Finnegan is the Reds don’t seem to score many runs when he pitches. In his last four starts, the Reds have scored a total of five runs. In the month of June, Finnegan is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five starts, but has held opponents to a .220 batting average. The 23-year-old left-hander has 44 walks, which is third in the National League.
Finnegan did face the Washington Nationals on June 3 against Gonzalez. He went 6.1 innings, gave up one run on five hits, struck out two, and walked three in a win. That lone RBI came on a home run by Wilson Ramos.
As for Gonzalez, it’s been almost an automatic loss when he’s on the mound for the Nats. Against the Brewers on Saturday, he went three innings, gave up six runs on six hits, struck out five, and walked one in a loss. The left-hander is now 0-6 in his last seven starts.
It has been a rough June for Gonzalez, to say the least. He is 0-4 in five starts with a 7.16 ERA, has walked 11 batters, and opponents are hitting .300 against him. You have to wonder if Gonzalez’s spot in the rotation will be in jeopardy in the near future if Lucas Giolito continues to impress and Stephen Strasburg comes back from injury.
Back on June 3, Gonzalez went six innings, gave up five runs on nine hits, and struck out eight in a loss to the Reds. Joey Votto is 6-for-15 (.400) with two doubles, two home runs, and four RBI’s.
Prediction: Even though Finnegan has had a lack of command at times this season and the Washington Nationals offense was strong in the Mets series, it’s tough to pick Gonzalez to win any game right now until he starts to show some confidence. Reds win the series opener.
Next: Friday's Matchup
Anthony DeSclafani (2-0, 1.52) vs. Tanner Roark (7-5, 2.96) – 6:05 p.m ET, MASN
DeSclafani had a great outing in his last start against the Padres on June 26. He threw eight shutout innings, gave up five hits, and struck out five on 117 pitches to win his second game of the season. The 26-year-old right-hander missed the first two months of the season due to an oblique injury.
Last season, DeSclafani was 9-13 with a 4.05 ERA in 31 starts and threw 184.2 innings, which was the most of anyone in the Reds rotation. Since coming off the disabled list, he has given up two earned runs or fewer in all four outings.
DeSclafani made two starts against the Washington Nationals last season. He was 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA and he gave up four runs in 11.2 innings. Daniel Murphy is 3-for-6 against him with a double, a home run, and three RBI’s.
On Sunday against the Brewers, Tanner Roark stepped up when the Washington Nationals needed him the most. He went seven innings, gave up seven hits, struck out seven, and walked one as he helped snap the Nats seven game losing streak.
Over his last three starts, Roark has had some good luck getting the groundball outs as he has induced 11 or more groundball outs in each game. In his last four starts, he has given up a total of seven runs in 27.1 innings with 24 strikeouts.
Back on June 5, Roark had a rough outing against the Reds. He went three innings, gave up five runs on seven hits, struck out three, and walked one on 62 pitches. However, he got a no-decision. Brandon Phillips is 4-for-8 against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
Prediction: I would expect DeSclafani to have a quality outing based off how he has pitched since coming off the DL. However, I like the Washington Nationals to get their first win of the series because Roark has stepped up when the team needs him and has become one of their consistent starters in this rotation.
Next: Saturday's Matchup
Dan Straily (4-5, 4.38) vs. Joe Ross (7-4, 3.30) – 7:15 p.m, FOX
Against the Cubs back on June 27, Straily had one of his worst starts of the season. He went 3.2 innings, gave up seven runs on nine hits, struck out two, and walked three in his third straight loss. That was the game where Kris Bryant went 5-for-5 with three home runs and six RBI’s.
In five starts this month, Straily is 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA. That is a severe downgrade when you consider he had an ERA of under 3.50 in each of the first two months of the season. Over the course of his last 14 innings, he has allowed 17 runs and given up three home runs.
Against the Washington Nationals on June 4, the 27-year-old right-hander went seven innings, gave up two runs on two hits, struck out three, and walked two in a no-decision. Anthony Rendon is 1-for-2 against him with a home run and two RBI’s.
As for Ross, he responded well after a rough first three innings against the Mets on Monday. He went six innings, gave up four runs on ten hits, struck out seven, and walked one on 94 pitches in a win.
After giving up nine hits in the first three innings, Ross settled down and was able to pick up his fourth win in his last seven starts. After a rough start against the White Sox to begin this month, Ross only allowed 12 runs in his final four starts of the month. He has never faced any hitter on the Reds.
Prediction: With Straily struggling and Ross having an advantage in terms of nobody facing him in this lineup, I like the Washington Nationals offense to get ahead early against Staily and secure the win.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
John Lamb (1-4, 4.60) vs. TBA – 1:35 p.m, MASN/WUSA9
On Sunday, the Washington Nationals will go up against John Lamb, who was one of the pitchers acquired in the Johnny Cueto deal from the Royals last July. The 25-year-old hasn’t won a game since June 1, but he did pitch well on Tuesday against the Cubs.
In that start, he went six innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out seven, and walked one in a no-decision. He does have 25 walks in 11 starts, but at the same time, he has given up a combined total of 12 runs in his last six starts.
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When he takes the mound, the 25-year-old left-hander has an average velocity of 89.5 miles per hour on his fastball (according to Fangraphs), a slider, curveball, cutter, and changeup. The only hitter who has an at-bat against Lamb is Daniel Murphy (1-for-1).
Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have not announced a starter for this game yet. Dusty Baker did speak to the media about that this afternoon and judging by his comments, it doesn’t sound like this is when Stephen Strasburg would come off the disabled list:
Next: As Goes Scherzer, So Do The Nats
If Strasburg doesn’t get the start, the pitcher I would like to see get a second chance is Lucas Giolito. In his MLB debut on Tuesday, Giolito only went four innings because of the rain delay, but he gave up only one hit and showed off a devastating curveball to go with a fastball that touched 96 miles per hour.