Washington Nationals vs. Brewers Series Preview (7/4-7/6)
The Washington Nationals will play their final home series of the first half against the Milwaukee Brewers. Here’s our preview
Against the Cincinnati Reds this weekend, the Washington Nationals (50-33) were able to win three out of four games in the series. The offense was the main headline as the team scored 32 runs in the series. The main contributor was shortstop Danny Espinosa, who hit five home runs (two grand slams) and had 15 RBI’s in the four games.
As for the starting pitching, Stephen Strasburg had a strong return off the disabled list yesterday when he no-hit the Reds for 6.2 innings. However, as Strasburg comes back, Joe Ross went on the disabled list yesterday with shoulder inflammation.
Today, the Washington Nationals got Jonathan Papelbon back off the disabled list as he returns to the closer role. But, in a surprise, outfielder Michael Taylor was sent down to triple-A Syracuse:
The #Nats have returned from rehab and reinstated RHP Jonathan Papelbon. OF Michael A. Taylor has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 4, 2016
This morning, the Washington Nationals will begin their final home series before the All-Star Break as they start a three game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (35-46). The Brewers took two out of three games from the Nats at Miller Park from June 25-27.
Since that series, Craig Counsell’s squad is 1-5 in their last six games and they were swept over the weekend in a three-game series against the Cardinals. While the Brewers are tied for 26th in baseball in runs scored, first baseman Chris Carter leads the team in home runs (20) and RBI’s (49).
The big question for the Brewers as we head towards the August 1 trade deadline is whether or not left fielder Ryan Braun or catcher Jonathan Lucroy will still be with Milwaukee. Braun is hitting .328 with 13 home runs and 44 RBI’s while Lucroy is hitting .300 with ten home runs and 39 RBI’s.
On the mound, the Brewers have the fourth highest starters ERA in the National League (4.79) and they have given up the fourth most home runs (65). In the bullpen, closer Jeremy Jeffress is 21-for-22 in save chances.
Before this series starts this morning, check out my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: This Morning's Matchup
Junior Guerra (5-1, 3.25 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (9-5, 3.30) – 11:05 a.m ET, broadcast on MASN/MLB Network
Back in October, the Brewers claimed Guerra off waivers from the Chicago White Sox. So far this season, he has been one of their best starters. Against the Dodgers on June 29, Guerra gave up two hits, struck out seven, and walked two in eight innings as he recorded the win.
The 31-year-old right-hander made his first start of the season back in May and has held opponents to a .212 batting average. Over his last five starts, Guerra is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and he has given up three runs or fewer in eight of his last ten starts.
According to Fangraphs, Guerra has an average velocity of 93 miles per hour on his fastball as well as a slider and a splitter. He has never faced the Washington Nationals in his career.
As for Scherzer, he had a great performance of his own against the Mets in his last start on June 29. He went 7.1 innings, gave up two hits, struck out ten, and walked one in a win. It also was the fourth straight start in which Scherzer has struck out ten or more batters.
Heading into his first start of July, Scherzer will be looking to continue the success that he had in June when the right-hander went 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA in four starts, struck out 58 batters, and held opponents to a .158 batting average. At home this season, he is 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six outings.
That one loss that Scherzer had in June was against the Brewers on June 24. In six innings, he gave up five runs on five hits, including two solo home runs to Keon Broxton and Kirk Nieuwhenhuis in a loss. Ryan Braun is 0-for-10 against Scherzer with five strikeouts.
Prediction: With the 11 a.m. start time and playing an earlier game on Sunday, I think the Washington Nationals have the advantage. With their offense clicking, they should get enough runs against Guerra early as Scherzer is able to get his first win against the Brewers this year and his tenth on the season.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Zach Davies (5-4, 3.22) vs. Gio Gonzalez (4-7, 4.81) – 7:05 p.m, MASN
In his last start against the Dodgers, Davies had his worst start of the season in terns of most runs allowed. He went 4.1 innings, gave up six runs on eight hits, struck out three, and walked two as he picked up his first loss since April 29 against the Marlins.
The problem for the 23-year-old right-hander in that start was that he gave up three home runs. In his first 13 starts of the season, he gave up a total of nine home runs. Despite a bad end to the month, Davies went 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in six starts in June.
One of those six starts came against the Washington Nationals back on June 24. Davies went five innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out nine, and walked one in a no-decision. Wilson Ramos went 3-for-3 against him that night with a RBI.
Gonzalez showed some progress against the Reds on Thursday as he picked up his first win since May 18 against the Mets. He went six innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out nine, and walked four during the win.
Now, it did help him that the Washington Nationals had a 13-1 lead after the fourth inning. But, Gonzalez did a good job in pitching to the scoreboard and now he will look to put his horrid June behind him (1-4, 6.95 ERA in six starts). With Joe Ross now on the disabled list, the Nats will need a lot more from Gonzalez.
In his start prior to the Reds outing, the left-hander went just three innings, gave up six runs on six hits, struck out five, and walked one in a loss to Milwaukee. One of those mistakes was a three-run home run by Chris Carter in the bottom of the first. Lucroy is 6-for-10 against Gonzalez with three RBI’s in his career.
Prediction: Both of these pitchers will face the opposition for the second time this season. Davies was impressive in that first outing as Ramos and Daniel Murphy were the only ones who figured him out. While Gonzalez showed progress against the Reds, I can’t trust him quite yet to win back-to-back games. Brewers get the win.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Matt Garza (1-1, 3.74) vs. Tanner Roark (7-5, 2.93) – 4:05 p.m, MASN2
On Wednesday afternoon, Garza will be making his fifth start of the 2016 season. In his last start against the Cardinals on July 1, Garza went 5.2 innings, gave up four earned runs (seven total) on nine hits, struck out six, and walked three in his first loss of the season.
The one thing the 32-year-old has done this season is found a way to induce hitters into groundball outs. In his last three starts, he has recorded ten or more groundball outs. However, the problem for Garza has been his control as evident by having thee walks in each of his last two games.
One of those two games was against the Washington Nationals on June 25. Garza went six innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out one, and walked three in his first win of the year. Danny Espinosa is 4-for-17 against him, but he has seven RBI’s.
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While Roark didn’t pick up the win in his last start, he still put together a strong outing against the Reds on July 1. He went seven innings, gave up two runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked two in a no-decision.
Although Roark only threw 12 first pitch strikes to the 27 batters he faced, he did throw 62 of his 108 pitches for strikes. Like Garza, Roark has had success inducing groundball outs. In four consecutive starts, Roark has ten or more groundball outs.
Back on June 26, Roark filled in for Stephen Strasburg against the Brewers and did a good job. He went seven innings, gave up seven hits, struck out seven, and walked one in a win. Braun is 4-for-10 with a triple and a RBI against Roark in his career.
Next: Reaction: Takeaways From 12-1 Win Over Reds
Prediction: If the Washington Nationals can take advantage of their scoring opportunities against Garza unlike last time, I like their chances with Roark in the series finale. He has thrown seven innings or more in four of his last five starts and I expect that trend to continue on Wednesday.