Washington Nationals vs. Dodgers Preview (7/19-7/21)
Tonight, the Washington Nationals begin a three game series against the Dodgers at Nats Park
In their first series after the All-Star Break, the Washington Nationals (56-37) took two out of three games from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their starting pitchers gave up two runs in the three games, but the Nats lost the final game of the series, 2-1 in 18 innings.
Daniel Murphy had a pinch-hit home run in the ninth on Sunday after missing the first two games of a sore hamstring. Murphy is back in the lineup tonight, but he is playing third base because Anthony Rendon is out with the flu.
Tonight, the Washington Nationals continue their nine game homestand as they begin a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (52-42). The Dodgers are 5.5 games behind the Giants in the NL West and currently hold the first NL Wild Card spot.
Last month, the Dodgers swept the Nats in a three game series at Dodger Stadium with all three games being decided by three runs or fewer. In the last two games of the series, the Dodgers came back on a Yasmani Grandal eighth inning home run (June 21) and an error by Michael Taylor allowing Yasiel Puig to score the game-winning run (June 22).
Since that series, the Dodgers are 11-9, but they have won four of their last six games. Their shortstop, Corey Seager, leads the team in batting average (.301) and home runs (17). There are two players in the Dodgers lineup who have more than one home run this month. Those two are Grandal (.353, five home runs, eight RBI’s in 11 games) and third baseman Justin Turner (.300, four home runs, 11 RBI’s, in 13 games).
The problem for Dave Roberts’ squad has been finding healthy starting pitching. Currently, four starters are on the disabled list, including ace Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw hasn’t pitched since June 26 because of a back injury and he’s not due to come back anytime soon:
Clayton Kershaw "didn't feel great" on Sunday, Dave Roberts said. He's shut down until his back pain goes away. His return? "Uncertain."
— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) July 19, 2016
Despite those injuries, the Dodgers have a 3.51 team ERA in July, which is the sixth lowest in the National League. In their bullpen, they have closer Kenley Jansen, who is 27-for-31 in saves to go with a 1.36 ERA.
Before this series starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the three pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Scott Kazmir (7-3, 4.52 ERA) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (MLB Debut) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Before the All-Star Break, Kazmir’s last start against the Padres was a short one. On July 8, Kazmir went three innings, gave up three runs on six hits, struck out five, and walked three in a no-decision.
While the 32-year-old hasn’t gone further than six innings in each of his last ten starts, he has allowed more than three runs in two of those games. Against the Rockies on July 2, he threw six shutout innings and struck out ten in a win.
Kazmir, who hasn’t lost since May 9, faced the Washington Nationals on June 21. He went six innings, gave up two solo home runs on eight hits, struck out four, and walked one in a no-decision. Jayson Werth is 5-for-7 against Kazmir with a solo home run.
Tonight, the Washington Nationals will have another one of their top pitching prospects make his Major League debut in Reynaldo Lopez. The 22-year-old right-hander is 4-5 with a 3.19 ERA in 16 combined starts at double-A Harrisburg and triple-A Syracuse.
When you look at Lopez’s numbers in the minors, his strikeout numbers stand out the most. He has 109 K’s in 87.1 innings and has four double-digit strikeout games this year (two games with 13 K’s).
Lopez’s fastball can reach into the 100 mph range as we saw in the Futures Game in San Diego on July 10. He also has a changeup and curveball in his pitch arsenal. Lopez hasn’t pitched in an actual game since July 5 for Syracuse, so it will be interesting to see how much rust he has in this game.
Prediction: The interesting thing to watch in this game is can the Washington Nationals take advantage of early scoring opportunities against Kazmir if his control is off. Keep in mind, while Kazmir has a 5.40 road ERA, teams are still only hitting .204 (.267 at home). Washington had a day off after the 18-inning game, so the bullpen should be ready for Lopez. I think he will have a strong debut, but I’ll take the Dodgers to win a close game.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Bud Norris (5-7, 4.17) vs. Gio Gonzalez (5-8, 4.70) – 7:05 p.m, MASN2
Tomorrow’s start was supposed to go to Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-1, 11.57 ERA), who was going to make his second start since returning from left shoulder surgery. However, this afternoon, the Dodgers placed Ryu on the 15-day disabled list because of tendinitis in his left elbow:
Both Casey Fien (retroactive to July 17) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (retroactive to July 9) have been placed on the 15-day DL with elbow tendonitis.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 19, 2016
Norris started the season with the Braves before being traded to the Dodgers on June 30. He is 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA in three starts since joining Los Angeles. In his last start on July 15 against the Diamondbacks, Norris went five innings, gave up four runs on eight hits, and struck out five in a win.
When he was with the Braves, Norris made his first two starts of the season against the Washington Nationals. He ended up losing both of those starts as he gave up eight runs in 12 innings of work. Stephen Drew is 9-for-25 against him with three doubles, a triple, a home run, and four RBI’s.
If the start before the All-Star Break was any indication, Gonzalez might be turning a corner. Against the Mets on July 8, Gonzalez went 5.2 innings, gave up two runs on four hits, struck out three, and walked four in a win. Other than the two Jose Reyes home runs, Gonzalez did enough to get the win.
Gonzalez ended his first half winning two of his last three starts, but he continues to put too many runners on base. He has walked three or more batters in five of his last six starts. The Washington Nationals are hoping that in the second half, Gonzalez looks more like the pitcher who had a 1.42 ERA in four starts back in April.
In four career starts against the Dodgers, Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and has not lost against Los Angeles since 2012. Howie Kendrick, who is hitting .412 in July, is 5-for-21 against Gonzalez with a double and two RBI’s in his career.
Prediction: Since Norris has only given up more than three runs in a game once in his last eight starts, this one might be tougher for the Nats to score runs. With that being said, if Gonzalez can have a similar outing to the one he had against the Mets, I like the Nats to find a way to win their first game of the series.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Julio Urias (1-2, 4.95) vs. Stephen Strasburg (13-0, 2.51) – 12:05 p.m., MASN2/MLB Network
Due to Kershaw not being ready to come back from his back injury, the Dodgers are going to go with Urias in Thursday’s afternoon start. Here is the tweet from Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:
Bud Norris will pitch Wednesday. Julio Urias will pitch Thursday for #Dodgers
— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) July 19, 2016
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The 19-year-old right-hander hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since July 4. While Urias has only thrown more than five innings once in his eight Major League starts, he has 44 strikeouts and has only given up more than three runs twice. In his last outing in the minors on July 10, he only went one inning in relief.
Back on June 22, Urias faced the Nats and went five innings, gave up two runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked one in a no-decision. The only two runs scored against Urias that night were RBI doubles by Danny Espinosa and Joe Ross.
Strasburg got the first start of the second half for the Washington Nationals and he was able to set the tone for the Pirates series. He went eight innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out six, and walked two on 105 pitches as he remains undefeated in 2016.
Next: Why 2016 Is The Year For The Nats
After that Pittsburgh outing, Strasburg has now given up three earned runs in his last four starts. Even though he allowed someone to steal a base against him (Starling Marte in the fifth) for the first time this season, he was able to keep the Washington Nationals in the game until they scored late to get him the win.
Strasburg was supposed to start against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw in the last series, but was scratched because of the upper back strain. He is 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA in four career starts against Los Angeles. Adrian Gonzalez is 4-for-9 against him with a double and a RBI.
Prediction: The Washington Nationals will get to see Urias for a second time and it will be interesting to watch Urias since he has only thrown one inning in a baseball game since that last Major League start. If Strasburg has his best stuff on a getaway day, I like the Nats to get this win and take two out of three games in the series as Strasburg goes to 14-0.