Washington Nationals at Indians Preview (7/26-7/27)
The Washington Nationals begin a nine game road trip tonight with a mini series against the Cleveland Indians
This past weekend, the Washington Nationals (59-41) lost two out of three games to the San Diego Padres. There were some good moments such as the Stephen Drew walk-off double on Saturday night. But, the series ended on a negative note when Shawn Kelley and Jonathan Papelbon gave up six runs in the final two innings of a 10-6 loss.
As the Washington Nationals start a nine game road trip today, they do get some reinforcements back. Ryan Zimmerman and Sammy Solis were officially activated off the disabled list today. Solis goes back into the bullpen and Zimmerman is at first base tonight, batting seventh.
The first stop on the Washington Nationals road trip is a two game series at Progressive Field against the Cleveland Indians (56-41). The Indians were swept in Baltimore over the weekend, but Terry Francona’s club still has a 5.5 game lead over the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.
When you talk about the Indians, the conversation starts with their starting rotation. This season, their starters have a 3.65 ERA, which is the best in the American League and they have the most strikeouts in the AL (556). All five starters in the Indians rotation have an ERA under four.
On offense, Cleveland has scored the fourth most runs and the second most stolen bases in the AL. They have two 20+ home run hitters in first baseman Mike Napoli (.244, 22 home runs, 68 RBI’s), and designated hitter Carlos Santana (.285, 21 home runs, 54 RBI’s). Another player to watch on the Indians is 22-year-old shortstop Francisco Lindor. Lindor is hitting .303 with 12 home runs, 49 RBI’s, and 13 stolen bases. Plus, he has three multi-hit games in his last five.
Cleveland has had this success offensively without their long time center fielder Michael Brantley. Brantley has only played in 11 games this season and has been out since May 9 because of a shoulder injury.
If there is one big weakness the Indians have to address at the deadline, it would be the bullpen. Cleveland is tied for sixth in the AL in bullpen ERA (3.65) and their pen has thrown the second fewest innings in the AL. Closer Cody Allen is 19-for-21 in saves with a 2.55 ERA while setup man Bryan Shaw has a 4.35 ERA in 46 appearances.
Before this series starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the two pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (6-8, 4.53 ERA) vs. Danny Salazar (11-3, 2.75) – 7:10 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN
The only Washington Nationals starter that picked up a win last week was Gio Gonzalez. On July 20 against the Dodgers, Gonzalez went six innings, gave up one run on three, struck out six, and walked two in his second straight win.
Gonzalez did run into some trouble in the second inning when he gave up a run and threw 28 pitches, but he didn’t let that run burst into a big inning. This month, the left-hander has given up six runs in three starts. But, he has only won two road games since mid May.
Against the Indians in his career, Gonzalez is 5-0 with a 0.81 ERA in seven starts, but all of those wins came when he was with the Oakland Athletics. Mike Napoli is 3-for-12 with a home run and five RBI’s in his career against Gonzalez.
Gonzalez will go up against some tough competition in All-Star Danny Salazar. Against the Royals on July 19, Salazar went 6.2 innings, gave up two earned runs on eight hits, struck out seven, and walked one in a win.
The 26-year-old right-hander hasn’t lost in any of his last nine starts (May 22 against the Red Sox). Over that stretch, he’s only given up more than three earned runs once. While Salazar is seventh in the American League in strikeouts (125), he does have his fair share of walks (47 – seventh in the AL).
Salazar hasn’t faced the Washington Nationals in his career, but the only starter with more than one at-bat against him is Ben Revere (2-for-3).
Prediction: While Gonzalez hasn’t been great this season, he has found consistency as of late. But, due to his bad road record this seaso and Salazar being 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in eight home starts (7-1, 2.31 ERA at night). With those stats in mind, I will take the Indians to win the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Stephen Strasburg (13-1, 2.83) vs. Carlos Carrasco (7-3, 2.31) – 12:10 p.m , MASN/MLB Network
All great streaks come to an end and Strasburg’s winning streak came to an end in his last start against the Dodgers. On July 21 against the Dodgers, he went six innings, gave up six runs on seven hits, struck out ten, and walked one in his first loss of the season.
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Strasburg made two mistakes in the first three innings, which were two home runs by Justin Turner. With that being said, Strasburg picked up 10+ strikeouts for the fifth time in his last ten starts. Even with that bad outing, he has a 2.60 ERA in four July starts and has held opponents to a .128 batting average.
Against the Indians, Strasburg is 1-1 with a 1.74 ERA in two starts against the Indians, but he has nine walks in those games. Carlos Santana is 2-for-4 against Strasburg with a RBI in his career.
As for Carrasco, he is coming off of a great start against the Royals on July 20. He went six innings, gave up one hit, struck out six, and walked two in a win. Carrasco is now 5-1 in his last six starts.
The 29-year-old right-hander has had a great month of July. In four starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .165 batting average. Over the course of his last six starts, Carrasco has given up only five earned runs, including two shutouts.
Next: Nats Player Of The Week (7/18-7/24): Gio Gonzalez
If Stephen Drew gets the start against Carrasco tomorrow, he is 4-for-12 with a pair of solo home runs against him. He has never faced the Washington Nationals in his career.
Prediction: I expect this game to be a pitcher’s duel tomorrow afternoon that will come down to the bullpens. If that ends up being the case, I’ll take the Washington Nationals to win a close game and get a split of the two game series.