Washington Nationals at Diamondbacks Preview (8/1-8/3)
After splitting with the Giants, the Washington Nationals begin a three-game series tonight against the Diamondbacks.
In the middle of their road trip, the Washington Nationals (61-44) picked up a split against the San Francisco Giants. The Nats were able to win the first two games in the series against the Giants as they scored eight runs, but in losing the final two, the offense could only score four runs.
Due to those two losses over the weekend, the Washington Nationals lead is down to four games over the Miami Marlins in the NL East, but they did upgrade their closer situation on Saturday when they acquired closer Mark Melancon in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tonight, the Washington Nationals conclude their nine road trip when they start a three-game series in the desert at Chase Field the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-62). It’s been a disappointing season for Arizona, who sit last in the National League West, 18 games behind the first place Giants.
The Diamondbacks have been hit hard by the injury bug in 2016. The team is missing outfielder A.J. Pollock (elbow surgery), catcher Chris Herrmann (hamstring), shortstop Nick Ahmed (hip), starting pitchers Rubby De La Rosa (elbow) and Zack Greinke (oblique).Shortstop Chris Owings (foot) and outfielder David Peralta (back) were activated off the DL over the weekend.
Despite the injuries, second baseman Jean Segura leads the club in hitting (.312 batting average) and stolen bases (17). America’s first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has found his stroke after struggling earlier in the year. Goldschmidt leads the team with 68 RBI and is tied for second with 17 home runs.
Third baseman Jake Lamb is having a breakout season at the plate. He leads the Senior Circuit with eight triples and is second with a .588 slugging percentage.Segura, Lamb, and Goldschmidt have been the bright spots for the Diamondbacks in 2016.
More from Nationals News
- Latest DraftKings Sportsbook Promo Code in Maryland: Bet $5, Win $200 Guaranteed
- Nationals Claim Jeter Downs Off Waivers
- Washington Nationals Tuesday Q&A
- A Washington Nationals Christmas Wishlist
- Robots in Baseball? The Possibility of an Automated Ball/Strike System in the MLB
Regarding starting pitching, Arizona has been dreadful. They’re 14th in the NL with a 4.94 ERA from the rotation. The only starter whose ERA which doesn’t begin with the number four or higher is Greinke. The Washington Nationals won’t see Shelby Miller, but in Miller’s case, that’s a positive. He has compiled a 7.14 ERA in 14 starts this year. He is trying to work on some things in Triple-A Reno and will probably be back in the rotation before the season is over.
The silver lining is that the team’s top pitching prospect in Braden Shipley earned his first career win in just his second start facing the Milwaukee Brewers.
If you thought the rotation was bad, the bullpen isn’t any better. The relief corps is 14th in the NL with a 4.90 ERA. The team already traded Brad Ziegler to the Boston Red Sox, who was their best reliever.
Daniel Hudson was a potential trade candidate, but he’s fallen off the deep end. He surrendered just three runs in his first 21 games but has yielded 25 runs over the past 23 games. The only reliever that’s performed well for them is Jake Barrett. He has a 2.79 ERA with 39 strikeouts and 13 walks issued in 38 2/3 innings.
The Diamondbacks have been one of the worst teams at home in the Majors, considering their 17-35 record at Chase Field. The only team with fewer wins at their home ballpark is the Atlanta Braves at 16-38.
Before this series starts tonight, check out my breakdowns of the three pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Stephen Strasburg (14-1, 2.68 ERA) vs. Archie Bradley (4-6, 4.17 ERA) – 9:40 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Strasburg coming off the first loss of the season, responded great in the last start against the Cleveland Indians. He tossed seven scoreless innings, yielding three hits and fanning seven batters.
The right-handed pitcher has arguably been the best starter in the Washington Nationals rotation. He is limiting the opposition to a .196 average, while his ERA in eight starts on the road is 1.72. He has tossed at least six innings in seven of his eight starts on the road.
Strasburg had a solid month of July (2.08 ERA), as there was just one outing in which he allowed more than one run and that was the loss to the Dodgers on July 21. He remains composed with runners in position, by holding other teams to a .254 average in this situation.
Strasburg has experienced success against the Diamondbacks, as indicated by his 3.53 ERA in seven career starts against them. However, in four starts at Chase Field, his ERA is 5.01. Goldschmidt is 5-for-13 against him with two doubles and two RBI’s.
As for Bradley, it’s been a rocky season with him battling control issues. He has walked 41 batters, given up 11 home runs and compiled a 1.41 WHIP in 82 innings.
In 10 of his 14 starts, the right-hander has walked three or more batters. He has the stuff to be a top three pitcher in their starting rotation but needs to command his pitches better.Despite allowing way too many baserunners, Bradley has yielded more than four runs in only three starts this year.
A contributing factor is that opposing teams have posted a .243 average facing him, and right-handed batters have mustered just a .194 average.
He hasn’t fared too well at home, as indicated by his 5.15 ERA in six home starts. He is excellent with runners in scoring position, by holding the opposition to a minuscule .123 average during this situation.This will be the first time facing the Washington Nationals in his career.
Prediction: I expect the Washington Nationals to score some early runs off Bradley, and this will allow Strasburg to settle into a rhythm on the mound. I’ll pick the Washington Nationals to win the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Tanner Roark (10-6, 2.96 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (5-10, 4.70 ERA) – 9:40 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Roark has been a key part of the Washington Nationals’ rotation achieving success this year. He has surrendered just nine home runs in 136 2/3 innings, and his FIP is solid at 3.39.
The right-hander tossed a gem in his last start facing the Giants. He went seven innings, allowing one run on four hits and striking out three batters. It was the tenth outing in which he lasted seven innings and allowed two runs or less. Roark is holding opposing teams to a .236 average, and left-handed batters are hitting .199 facing him.
He is reliable on the road, considering his 3.15 ERA in 11 starts away from home. He thrives when the pressure is on, by limiting other teams to a .184 average with two outs and runners in scoring position.One interesting stat about Roark is that teams have a .273 average the first time through the batting order, but it drops to .205 the second time and .235 the third time.
He has yet to allow an earned run in five career games (two starts) against the Diamondbacks in 18.1 innings.
Meanwhile, Ray has shown glimpses that he can be a solid pitcher in the rotation. He is seventh in the NL with 143 strikeouts, and his 11.91 strikeouts per nine innings is good for third in the league.
The only problem with the high number of strikeouts for Ray is that it runs his pitch count up. A perfect example of this was his last outing facing the Milwaukee Brewers. He fanned 11 batters on 101 pitches, but completed just 5.2 innings and yielded five runs. There are seven starts in 2016 that Ray has struck out at least eight batters.
The key for Ray in finding the right balance between accumulating K’s and keeping his team in games. In 13 of his 21 starts, the southpaw has allowed three earned runs or fewer, but just seven times in that time frame has he pitched six or more innings.
Ray has allowed opposing teams to post a .274 batting average against him, but left-handed batters are hitting only .256.
The left-hander hasn’t experienced any success at Chase Field, as indicated by his 5.17 ERA in 10 starts at home. The problem for Ray comes in the middle innings, as he has a 6.00 ERA in innings four through six. This marks the first career start for Ray against the Washington Nationals.
Prediction: I expect Roark to have another solid outing, but Ray keeps his team in the game as well. The Diamondbacks win this game in extra innings.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Max Scherzer (11-6, 2.85 ERA) vs. Zack Godley (3-1, 5.63 ERA) 3:40 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2
Scherzer has been prone to the long ball as he leads the National League in homers given up at 22 but has the most strikeouts in the Senior Circuit at 187.
He was superb in his last start against the Giants, surrendering one run on five hits in seven innings. It was the sixth consecutive start that the Washington Nationals right-hander gave up two runs or fewer, and five times in this period he has tossed at least seven innings.
More from District on Deck
- Latest DraftKings Sportsbook Promo Code in Maryland: Bet $5, Win $200 Guaranteed
- Nationals Claim Jeter Downs Off Waivers
- Washington Nationals Minor League Spotlight: Robert Hassell III
- Washington Nationals Tuesday Q&A
- 3 Free Agents the Nationals Should Gamble On
There are just four starts this season that he has allowed four or more runs. Scherzer is holding teams to a .193 average, and right-handed batters are hitting .156. The right-hander is reliable on the road, as indicated by his 2.92 ERA in 13 road starts. He is excellent with runners in scoring position, by holding the opposition to a .190 average in this situation.
The key for Scherzer is to have a clean opening inning. It’s the one area he has struggled, as his ERA in the first inning is 4.91.
Scherzer has a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Diamondbacks. He has a 3.88 ERA in 24 career games (20 starts) at Chase, as he did spend his first two seasons in the Majors with the Diamondbacks. Owings is 3-for-6 against him with two RBI’s.
As for Godley, he has walked 12 batters, yielded three home runs and his WHIP is 1.50 in 32 innings. The right-hander has pitched well in limited action this year. In three of his five starts, he has allowed three runs or less. He has thrown at least five innings in every outing but has yet to surpass 91 pitches in any of those starts.
The opposition has a .279 average against Godley, but right-handed batters are hitting a paltry .240. In three starts at Chase, Godley has compiled a 4.86 ERA.
The one aspect he needs to improve on is pitching better with runners in scoring position, as other teams have a .324 average and .931 OPS in this situation. A major concern for him is that in the third inning alone, his ERA is a blistering 14.40.
In his only career start against the Washington Nationals, Godley tossed six scoreless innings (August 3, 2015 at Nats Park).
Prediction: I expect Scherzer to have an outstanding game against his former team, and the Washington Nationals will knock Godley out of the game early to force the bullpen to come in. This will result in another loss for the Diamondbacks, and a series win for the Washington Nationals.