Washington Nationals vs. Giants Series Preview (8/5-8/7)
The Washington Nationals are back home tonight to begin a three game series against the San Francisco Giants
This week in Arizona, the Washington Nationals (64-44) offense scored 32 runs during their three game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Plus, the trio of Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and Max Scherzer gave up six runs during the sweep. With the Miami Marlins losing all three games to the Cubs, the Nats lead in the NL East is up to seven games.
The Washington Nationals went 6-3 on their nine game road trip and one of those stops was at AT&T Park where the Nats split a four game series against the San Francisco Giants (62-46). Tonight, the two teams begin a three game series at Nats Park.
Since that weekend series, the Giants lost two out of three games to the Phillies, but a Denard Span home run in the tenth inning yesterday prevented Bruce Bochy’s team from being swept yesterday. They enter tonight with a two game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West.
Over the trade deadline, the Giants were active as they traded for third baseman Eduardo Nunez from the Twins, acquired left-handed reliever Will Smith from the Brewers, and traded away Matt Duffy and two prospects to the Rays for starter Matt Moore. With Moore in the rotation, the Giants have put Jake Peavy in the bullpen.
In terms of the health on the Giants, they did get Joe Panik and Hunter Pence back during the last Nats series. Since coming back, Pence has a hit in each of the last five games that he’s played in. It’s been a struggle for the Giants in the second half. They are 5-13 in 18 games since the All-Star Break and have scored the second fewest runs in the National League (64). Their pitching has had its fair of struggles as the team’s 4.45 ERA is the fourth highest in the NL.
Before the game starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the three pitching matchups in this series:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Jeff Samardzija (9-7, 4.30 ERA) vs. Gio Gonzalez (6-9, 4.29) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN/WUSA9/MLB Network
Samardzija was one of the three pitchers who got the start for the Giants against the Washington Nationals in the last series. On July 29, he went six innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out two, and walked two in a loss.
In that start, the Nats did not have a hit for the first three innings. Then, they scored four runs from the fourth through sixth innings. The 31-year-old right-hander has only two wins in his last ten starts and he has a 7.02 ERA in three starts since the All-Star Break.
Against the Washington Nationals in his career, Samardzija is 2-4 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 games (six starts). Daniel Murphy is 6-for-12 against him with a home run and four RBI’s, including a triple in last Friday’s win.
With Joe Ross still on the disabled list and with all the days off, Gonzalez will get the start tonight on short rest. Gonzalez put up a good start against the Giants last Sunday, but was hurt by some bad defense. He went six innings, gave up two runs (one earned run) on six hits, struck out one, and walked two in a loss.
Despite the loss, Gonzalez continues to show progress ever since the month of july. Against the Giants, he had ten groundball outs, which is the most he has had in any game since June 19 against the Padres. Since the break, he is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA over the course of three starts.
The Washington Nationals left-hander is 3-4 with a 3.14 ERA in ten career starts against the Giants, but has only had two wins in his last seven starts. Brandon Crawford is 3-for-11 against him with a home run and three RBI’s.
Prediction: When you look at this matchup, Gonzalez has gained more trust over the last handful of starts than Samardzija. Coming off the day of rest, I think the Washington Nationals offense gets to Samardzija early and gets the win in the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Matt Cain (3-6, 5.53) vs. Stephen Strasburg (15-1, 2.69) – 7:05 p.m , MASN/MLB Network
While Cain didn’t give up a hit over five innings last Sunday against the Nats, he didn’t have great command of his pitches. He walked four batters and only threw 48 of his 93 pitches, but he still ended up getting the win for the second consecutive start.
The question still that Cain has to answer is can he pitch deep into the game. Since re-entering the rotation back on July 20 after spending over a month on the disabled list, he hasn’t thrown more than 5.1 innings in a game. On Saturday, Cain will be looking for his first road win of the season (0-3, 7.48 ERA in five starts).
Cain is 6-5 with a 3.46 ERA in 16 career starts against the Washington Nationals, but he has a 4.11 ERA in five starts at Nats Park (2-2 record). Danny Espinosa is 3-for-12 against him with a pair of solo home runs.
As for Strasburg, he was able to take advantage of some good run support he got against the Diamondbacks on Monday. He went six innings, gave up one run on three hits, struck out six, and walked two on 99 pitches in his 15th win of the season.
If Strasburg were to win on Saturday night, he would have a new career-high for wins in a season. Over his last ten starts, he has given up one earned run or fewer in seven of them. He has walked ten batters in his last six outings, but he has found a way to avoid giving up runs in those situations.
In seven starts against the Giants, Strasburg is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA. Buster Posey is 7-for-18 against the right-hander with a RBI in his career.
Prediction: With Cain still having some issues with his command, the Washington Nationals offense should get some hit in this game. Plus, they normally put up high run totals for Strasburg (41 runs in his last six starts). If that trend continues, Strasburg will get win number 16.
Next: Sunday's Matchup
Madison Bumgarner (10-6, 2.25) vs. Tanner Roark (11-6, 3.02) – 1:35 p.m, MASN/WUSA9/TBS
When Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for the Giants, runs are usually tough to come by. He had his struggles against the Phillies in his last start on Tuesday. Bumgarner went five innings, gave up eight runs (four earned) on ten hits, struck out four, and walked two in a no-decision.
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While Bumgarner is 0-2 in his last four starts, he has only given up 11 runs in those games. The problem for the Giants is they haven’t scored many runs when he’s on the mound (seven runs in four starts prior to Tuesday). This season, the 27-year-old left-hander is second in innings pitched, third in strikeouts, and third in ERA in the National League.
Bumgarner is 3-4 with a 2.90 ERA in nine starts against the Washington Nationals, but he has a 5.00 ERA in five starts at Nats Park (14 earned runs in his last three). Ben Revere is 7-for-14 against him with two RBI’s and Bryce Harper has a pair of home runs in 15 at-bats.
Roark did give up a couple of solo home runs against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, but he still had a quality start. He went 6.1 innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out six, and walked two on 103 pitches in a win.
With that win, the 29-year-old right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break. Over his last eight starts, Roark is 5-1 and has given up three runs or fewer in six of them. If there’s any concern with Roark, it’s that he’s given up four home runs in three games (11 home runs for the season). But, he still continues to put up quality starts on a consistent basis.
Next: Stras/Murphy Have Been Crucial For Nats
Back on July 28, Roark gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Giants. He is 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA in five games (two starts) in his career against San Francisco. Posey is 4-for-9 with two doubles and a RBI against Roark.
Prediction: While I expect Roark to have another quality start on Sunday, I don’t expect the Giants to get swept in this series despite their second half struggles. Bumgarner will end up pitching a gem and the Giants will find a way to salvage a game in the series in a pitcher’s duel type of game.