Washington Nationals at Rockies Preview (8/15-8/17)
The Washington Nationals kick off a nine game road trip tonight when they begin a three game series against the Colorado Rockies
Over the weekend, the Washington Nationals (69-47) were able to take two out of three games in a series against the Braves. Bryce Harper returned to the lineup yesterday and had a RBi double while Reynaldo Lopez picked up his first Major League win on Saturday night just to name a few of the good things that happened.
One other good note was the on-base streak of Jayson Werth Is now at 42 games. Werth had the day off yesterday, but should be in the lineup tonight as the Washington Nationals begin a nine game road trip with a three game series at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies (56-62). The Nats head into Colorado with a 8.5 game lead in the NL East, but the Rockies have struggled recently.
This past weekend, the Rockies lost all three games to the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park and they’ve lost seven of their last eight games as they are now six games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.
Despite the losses, the Rockies have had the best offense in baseball. They have scored the most runs (618), have the highest slugging percentage (.456), and they have hit the fourth most home runs (Washington Nationals are second).
Third baseman Nolan Arenado (.282, 31 home runs, 93 RBI’s) has had 23 RBi’s since the All-Star Break while center fielder Charlie Blackmon (.324, 20 home runs, 59 RBI’s) is hitting .357 with eight home runs and 16 RBI’s over his last 30 games.
Another player to watch is rookie left fielder David Dahl, who is hitting .342 in his first 20 games with three home runs and ten RBI’s. But, the Rockies are without rookie shortstop Trevor Story, who was a favorite for Rookie of the Year. He is out for the rest of the season with a torn ligament in his thumb.
On the mound, the problem for the Rockies in past years has been finding consistent starting pitching. Since the All-Star Break, Colorado does not have one starting pitcher with an ERA under four. Their starters ERA of 4.87 is the third highest in the National League.
As for the bullpen, Walt Weiss’ ‘pen has an ERA of 4.85, which is the third highest in the NL. Right now, their closer is Adam Ottavino, who is 1-for-3 in ERA. A reliever to watch is left-hander Boone Logan. This season, lefties are hitting .148 against him.
Before the series starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the three pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
Max Scherzer (12-7, 2.80 ERA) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (7-7, 5.25) – 8:40 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN
After Tanner Roark got his 13th win yesterday, tonight will be Scherzer’s second chance at win number 13. He had a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Indians on August 9 and still took the loss. He went seven innings, gave up one earned run on three hits, struck out ten, and walked one on 108 pitches in a loss.
For Scherzer, it was the first time he lost an outing in his last six starts (July 4 against the Brewers). Despite the bad outcome, Scherzer still has a 2.00 ERA and has struck out 44 batters in his last five starts since the All-Star Break. Plus, he has given up more than two earned runs in a game once in his last eight starts.
Scherzer has not had some great moments against the Rockies. He is 1-4 with a 4.35 ERA in seven career starts (0-3, 5.32 at Coors Field). Carlos Gonzalez is 3-for-10 against him with three solo home runs.
As for De La Rosa, he has had a good season as evident by his 5.25 ERA. Against the Rangers on August 10, he went five innings, gave up three runs on seven hits, struck out one, and walked three in a no-decision. He is 1-0 in his last four starts and has given up seven runs in that span.
When you talk about De La Rosa, he is not a pitcher that is going to have high strikeout totals. He has had no higher than six strikeouts in any starts since April this season. Right now, De La Rosa’s ERA would be the second highest he’s had in any season where he’s made 20+ starts since he was with the Royals in 2007.
In ten starts against the Washington Nationals, De La Rosa is 5-2 with a 3.71 ERA and has given up four runs in his last three starts against them. Jayson Werth is 5-for-17 against him with a home run and four RBI’s.
Prediction: While the trends would indicate a win for the Rockies tonight, both teams are coming in on different levels of confidence after Colorado was swept in Philadelphia. Scherzer has struggled at Coors Field and the Rockies lineup can hit the ball out of the park, but he’s on a good roll right now that I like the Washington Nationals to win the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Gio Gonzalez (8-9, 4.24) vs. Chad Bettis (10-6, 5.27) – 8:40 p.m, MASN2
Even though Gonzalez got the win in his last start against the Indians on August 11, it wasn’t one of his better performances. He went five innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out five, and walked one, but he did get the win.
With that win, Gonzalez is now 4-2 over his last seven starts and is one win away from a .500 winning percentage. He did throw only ten first pitch strikes to the 23 batters he faced and the four runs he gave up was the most in any start since June 30 against the Reds.
Gonzalez has faced the Rockies twice in his career and he is 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA in those outings. However, those starts occurred in 2012 and none of them were at Coors Field. If Ryan Raburn plays, he is 7-for-13 with three home runs and four RBI’s against the Washington Nationals left-hander.
Tomorrow, Gonzalez will go up against a pitcher in Bettis who has not lost in his last seven starts. Against the Rangers on August 11, Bettis went five innings, gave up five runs on nine hits, struck out two, and walked three in a no-decision.
Bettis has received some excellent run support in these games as the Rockies have scored double digit runs three times in his last seven outings. The five runs against the Rangers were the most the 27-year-old right-hander has given up in a game since June 26.
Coors Field is a tough ballpark to pitch in, but Bettis does a good job of getting hitters to hit groundballs. According to Fangraphs, his 51.3% groundball percentage is the eighth best in the National League and second on the team behind Tyler Chatwood (56.8%). In two relief appearances against the Washington Nationals, Bettis has a 6.75 ERA. Anthony Rendon is 1-for-2 against him with a double and two RBI’s.
Prediction: This is an interesting matchup because Gonzalez and Bettis have each pitched well of late. I’m expecting a well-pitched game on both sides because of the lack of familiarity on each side, but I like the Rockies to win this game with their offense against Gonzalez.
Next: Wednesday's Pitching Matchup
Stephen Strasburg (15-3, 3.07) vs. Jon Gray (8-5, 4.26) – 3:10 p.m, MASN
So far, August has not been too kind to Strasburg. Against the Braves on August 12, Strasburg went 5.1 innings, gave up six runs on seven hits, struck out seven, and walked two in his second consecutive loss.
Now, even the best pitchers can go through slump at times, so this shouldn’t alarm anyone. At the same time, Strasburg has given up ten runs in his last two games and has struggled to locate the fastball. That was evident in the three-run home run he gave up to Freddie Freeman in the fifth.
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Strasburg is 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA in seven starts against the Rockies, but he is 1-2 with a 3.44 ERA in three starts at Coors Field. DJ LeMahieu is 4-for-14 against Strasburg with a home run and two RBI’s.
Like Strasburg, Gray is a high draft pick as the Rockies took the 24-year-old right-hander with the third pick in the 2013 MLB Draft. Gray struggled against the Phillies on August 12. In 4.1 innings, he gave up six earned runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked four in a loss.
Gray has lost back-to-back games and has given up ten runs in his last seven innings of work. August has been a tough month for Gray as well when you consider he was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in five starts during the month of July.
Next: Nats Player Of Week (8/8-8/14): Anthony Rendon
While Gray has a 4.84 ERA at home this season, it’s the best Coors Field ERA of any Rockies pitcher this season who has made ten or more starts. Gray does have an average velocity of 95 miles per hour (according to Fangraphs) to go with a slider, breaking ball, and changeup. Daniel Murphy is 1-for-5 with a RBI against Gray, but the Washington Nationals have never faced him.
Prediction: Gray does have the best home ERA of any Rockies pitcher, but this will be the start where Strasburg finally gets that 16th win, which would be a new career-high. Plus, in nine road starts this season, Strasburg is 8-0 with a 1.70 ERA and has given up only three home runs. The Washington Nationals get a good outing from Strasburg and get the series win.