Washington Nationals vs. Orioles Series Preview (8/22-8/25)
Tonight, the Washington Nationals begin the four game battle of the beltway series against the Baltimore Orioles
While the Washington Nationals (73-50) did win three out of four games against the Braves at Turner Field this weekend, they did not play their best brand of baseball. The team made nine errors in the four games and blew a 6-3 lead in yesterday’s series finale.
On the positive side, the offense got Ryan Zimmerman back in the lineup at first base and scored 32 runs in the four games. As for Zimmerman, he went 4-for-5 with a home run in the series. Plus, Bryce Harper hit .407 during the last week with two home runs and ten RBI’s.
The Washington Nationals begin their four-game, two-venue battle of the beltway series tonight against the Baltimore Orioles (67-56). But, they won’t have Stephen Strasburg in their rotation as Strasburg went on the disabled list this afternoon because of right shoulder soreness:
#Nats recall RHP A.J. Cole from AAA & place RHP Stephen Strasburg on the 15-day DL with right elbow soreness. Cole will start Mon at BAL.
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) August 22, 2016
As for the Orioles, they come into tonight’s game having lost the last three games of their series to the Houston Astros at Oriole Park. Buck Showalter’s squad is 2.5 games behind the Blue Jays in the AL East and only one game ahead of the Mariners for the second Wild Card spot.
The strength of this Orioles team is their offense, which has hit the most home runs of any team in baseball (192). They have four players with 20+ home runs, including right fielder Mark Trumbo (.255, 37 home runs, 90 RBI’s) and one of the frontrunners for MVP in third baseman Manny Machado (.303, 28 home runs, 74 RBI’s, .358 on-base percentage).
Right now, the main problem for the Orioles is their starting rotation. In the month of August, the O’s team ERA of 5.13 is the third highest in the American League. Their rotation ERA of 4.99 is the fourth highest in the AL this season.
Despite the struggles of the rotation, the bullpen has helped the O’s a lot this season. Their relievers have won 27 games, which is the second most of any AL this season. With Darren O’’Day on the disabled list (shoulder), two relievers to watch are closer Zach Britton (37-for-37 in saves, 0.54 ERA) and setup man Brad Brach (1.59 ERA in 54 games).
Before this series starts tonight, check out my breakdown of the four pitching matchups:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
A.J. Cole (2016 debut) vs. Dylan Bundy (6-4, 3.36) – 7:05 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2/MLB Network
With Strasburg on the disabled list, it’s up to Cole to get the job done for the Washington Nationals. Cole was called up to help the Nats last Thursday in Atlanta, but Lopez had a good game and Cole wasn’t needed.
This will be the second Major League start of Cole’s career. His first start was on April 28, 2015 against the Braves at Turner Field. In that outing, he went two innings, gave up nine runs (four earned runs) on nine hits, struck out one, and walked one in a no-decision.
At triple-A Syracuse this season, Cole is 8-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 22 games. However, he has pitched seven innings or more in four straight games and he has a 2.80 ERA in his last five starts. Byron Kerr of MASN tweeted more on how Cole has done in triple-A:
#Nats A.J. Cole comes in to tonight's start at #Orioles commanding his FB fairly well and has tightened up his breaking pitches
— Byron Kerr (@ByronKerr) August 22, 2016
Tonight, the Washington Nationals will see Dylan Bundy for the first time. Against the Red Sox on August 17, he went 4.1 innings, gave up five runs on nine hits, struck out two, and walked two on 89 pitches in a loss, which snapped his three-game win streak.
Bundy has battled numerous injuries in his career since the Orioles selected him with the fourth pick in the 2011 MLB Draft. The 23-year-old started the season in the bullpen, but went into the rotation on July 17.
As a starter, Bundy has a 3.65 ERA in seven starts. While he does have 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he has given up eight home runs. According to Fangraphs, Bundy has an average fastball velocity of about 94 miles per hour to go with a changeup and breaking ball.
Prediction: With Strasburg not making this start, the Washington Nationals will need length out of Cole in this game with the way the bullpen has been used. I expect Cole to struggle against the good Orioles lineup and that will be enough for Bundy to get the win over the Washington Nationals.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Reynaldo Lopez (2-1, 4.37) vs. Kevin Gausman (4-10, 4.11) – 7:05 p.m, MASN2/MLB Network
For the second straight start, Lopez picked up a win against the Braves on August 18. This time around, he did it in dominant fashion. He went seven innings, gave up two runs (one earned) on four hits, struck out 11, and walked two on 101 pitches in the win.
During this start, Lopez had eight strikeouts over the course of the first three innings. According to Brooks Baseball, Lopez’s fastball maxed out at about 99 miles per hour and 53 of the 68 fastballs he threw were for strikes.
The 11 strikeouts Lopez had in his last start were nine more than he had in his prior start against the Braves (August 13). If you count the minor league numbers, it was the fifth time Lopez had ten or more strikeouts in a game this season.
It’s been a rough season for Gausman, but he did get a win in his last start on August 18 against the Astros. He went 6.2 innings, gave up five runs (four earned runs) on seven hits, struck out eight, and walked one on 112 pitches in the victory.
With the Orioles questions coming into the year regarding the starting rotation, they needed the 25-year-old right-hander to have a good 2016. During the first half of the season, Gausman only had one win in 15 starts and he had an ERA of over four from May-July.
In the month of August, Gausman has shown improvements as he is 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA and he has held opponents to a .242 batting average. Against the Washington Nationals, Gausman is 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts. Wilson Ramos is 2-for-3 against him with a home run.
Prediction: While I think Lopez can have a strong outing tomorrow night against the O’s if he commands his fastball, he is facing a much different lineup than he saw with the Braves in his last two starts. Maybe I am looking to see what Lopez can do against a power-hitting team, but I will take the Orioles to win a high scoring game.
Next: Wednesday's Matchup
Wade Miley (7-10, 5.58) vs. Tanner Roark (13-6, 2.87) – 7:05 p.m, MASN
At the trade deadline, the Orioles acquired Miley from the Mariners for pitcher Ariel Miranda. It’s been a rough first four starts for Miley in Baltimore. On August 19 against the Astros, Miley went 1.2 innings, gave up six runs on six hits, and struck out five on 44 pitches in a no-decision.
In his four starts with the O’s, the 29-year-old left-hander has an ERA of 9.53 and has given up 18 runs in 17 innings. While Miley only had one win in the month of July for the Mariners, he had an opponents’ batting average of .249 and he had his lowest ERA in any month (3.45).
The month of August has been rough for Miley as opponents are hitting .359 in four starts. From his time with the Diamondbacks and Red Sox, he is 1-3 with a 3.78 ERA in six starts against the Washington Nationals. Ryan Zimmerman is 5-for-8 against Miley with three doubles, a triple, and four RBi’s.
Even though Roark got a no-decision against the Braves on August 19, he continued to be Mr. consistency for the Washington Nationals. He went 6.1 innings, gave up three runs on four hits, struck out three, and walked three on 103 pitches.
Roark did get some defensive help in Friday’s game when Ben Revere made a leaping grab to take a home run away from Freddie Freeman. He has pitched into the seventh inning or later in six of his last seven starts. Since the All-Star Break, he is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in seven starts.
Against the Orioles in his career, Roark is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three games (two starts). Jonathan Schoop is 2-for-3 against him with a pair of home runs and three RBI’s.
Prediction: Since the Washington Nationals are unlikely to get many innings out of Cole or Lopez, they will need Roark to have a strong outing Wednesday night. With the way Miley has been struggling for Baltimore, I think the Nats get their first win of the series in this one at Nats Park.
Next: Thursday's Matchup
Chris Tillman (15-5, 3.76) vs. Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.05) – 7:05 p.m, MASN
After a disappointing 2015 season, Tillman has looked like the pitcher that helped lead the Orioles to the ALCS in 2014. But, he had a rough go of it in his last start against the Astros on August 20. He went two innings, gave up six runs on six hits, and walked five on 67 pitches in a loss.
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Tillman, who has been battling a sore shoulder, has a 6.60 ERA in his last three starts and he has an ERA of 4.76 since the All-Star Break. The 28-year-old right-hander has given up three runs or fewer in seven of his last ten outings, but he is fifth in the American League in walks (58).
In his career against the Washington Nationals, Tillman is 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA in five starts. Zimmerman is 3-for-6 against him with three home runs and four RBI’s.
Scherzer did give up three runs in the second inning on Saturday night against the Braves, but the offense gave him enough run support in the fourth inning alone to get the win. He went 6.1 innings, gave up four runs on six hits, struck out six, and walked three in a win.
Against the Braves, Scherzer did have three walks, which was the most he has had in his last eight starts (July 4 against the Brewers). Even though Scherzer does have a 3.11 ERA in seven starts since the break, opponents are hitting .205.
Next: Defensive Miscues Lead To More Work For Bullpen
From his time in the American League and with the Nats, Scherzer is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA in eight starts against the O’s. Adam Jones is 11-for-22 against him with three home runs and four RBI’s.
Prediction: On Thursday night, Scherzer will be looking for his first win at home since June 29 against the Mets. On the other hand, the Orioles are 20-6 in games that Tillman pitches in this season. I expect this game to be the pitcher’s duel out of the four games, but because of the dominance of the Orioles bullpen, I will take the O’s to win this game and take three out of four in the series.