Washington Nationals at Mets Series Preview (9/2-9/4)
The Washington Nationals begin the month of September with a three game series against the Mets at Citi Field
This week, the Washington Nationals (78-55) closed out the month of August with a series sweep against the Philadelphia Phillies. While the Nats only scored nine runs in the series, they got five of their nine runs in the first inning, including two home runs from Jayson Werth.
The starting pitching was dominant in the series as Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Gio Gonzalez combined to give up three runs. Tonight, the Washington Nationals will begin their first series in the month of September against the New York Mets (69-65) at Citi Field.
Coming into this series, the Nats have a 9.5 game lead in the NL East. Right now, the defending National League champions are right in the middle of the Wild Card picture. Currently, they trail the St. Louis Cardinals by two games for the second Wild Card spot.
This weekend, Daniel Murphy returns to Citi Field for the first time since mid-July. Murphy has been dominant against his former team (.423, seven home runs, 21 RBI’s). He has been one of the reasons why the Nats are 9-4 against the Mets this season.
One of the teams that have had a lot of injuries this season is the Mets. Yesterday, second baseman Neil Walker announced he will miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disk in his back. Another big injury for the Mets has been starting pitcher Steven Matz, who is currently out because of a shoulder strain.
Despite those injuries, the Mets remain in the playoff picture. Yoenis Cespedes only played in 13 games in August, but hit .340 with five home runs and ten RBI’s. Right now, the strength for the Mets offense is at the top of the order with third baseman Jose Reyes (.304 average in the second half), shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (six home runs, 17 RBI’s in his last 28 games), and Cespedes.
As for the pitching staff, the Mets have a 4.11 ERA as a team since the All-Star Break. Jacob deGrom has had his share of struggles over his last nine starts (2-4, 3.76 ERA). However, New York has found a way to stay in with the help of Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon (5-3, 3.45 ERA in ten starts).
In the bullpen, Jeurys Familia set a franchise record for the most saves in a single season this week (44). Other relievers to watch in this bullpen are Addison Reed (22 strikeouts to three walks in 21 games) and left-hander Jerry Blevins (2.45 ERA in his last 20 games).
Before this series starts tonight, here is my breakdown of the three pitching matchups this weekend:
Next: Tonight's Matchup
A.J. Cole (0-1, 4.97 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (12-7, 2.55) – 7:10 p.m ET, broadcast on MASN2/WUSA9
Cole is still searching for his first Major League win, but he had another decent outing on August 27 against the Rockies. He went 5.2 innings, gave up three runs on four hits, struck out four, and walked three on 112 pitches in the loss.
While Cole did throw a wild pitch on an intentional walk, he did throw 71 of his 112 pitches for strikes. Plus, teams are only hitting .191 against him and left-handed hitters are 4-for-25 this season against Cole. He hasn’t been dominant, but he’s done a good jo against some of the better lineups in the league.
The 24-year-old right-hander has not faced the Mets in his career, but Kelly Johnson does have two at-bats against him from last season. Johnson went 1-for-2 with a double and a two RBI’s
As the calendar shifts to September, Syndergaard is starting to round into form, which is key for the Mets rotation. Against the Phillies on August 27, the 24-year-old right-hander went seven innings, gave up one run on two hits, struck out seven, and walked two on 104 pitches in his third straight win.
During the month of August, Sydnergaard went 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA in five starts. But, in his last two outings, he has given up one run on four hits over 15 innings. Plus, he has struck out six or more batters in eight consecutive starts.
Against the Washington Nationals this season, Syndergaard is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts. Anthony Rendon is 5-for-13 with a home run and three RBI’s in his career against Syndergaard. Another player to watch is Clint Robinson, who has two home runs in six at-bats.
Prediction: Cole has pitched well in his first two starts of 2016, but this matchup looks lopsided in favor of the Mets. Cole will keep the Nats in the game, but I expect Syndergaard to bring his A stuff to the table in a game New York has to have considering who they will face in the next two games. Mets get the win in the series opener.
Next: Tomorrow's Matchup
Tanner Roark (14-7, 2.87) vs. Robert Gsellman (1-1, 3.72) – 7:10 p.m, MASN2
Once again, Roark dominated the Phillies in his last start on August 29 and got the series off to a great start. He went seven innings, gave up four hits, struck out five, and walked one on 100 pitches to get his 14th win of the season. In that Phillies outing, Roark didn’t give up one extra-base hit.
Roark has gone 5-1 in his last seven starts and has given up more than three runs once over that span. In August, the 29-year-old right-hander had a 2.56 ERA in six starts and held opponents to a .234 batting average.
This season, Roark is 0-1 with a 0.96 ERA in two games against the Mets, but he was a reliever in one of those games. At Citi Field in his career, Roark is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in seven games (four starts). Curtis Granderson is 6-for-20 against Roark with four doubles and two RBI’s.
Tomorrow night, the Mets will hand the ball to Gsellman, who will be making his second career Major League start. His last start came on August 28 against the Phillies. He went six innings, gave up four runs on seven hits, struck out five, and walked one on 94 pitches in a loss.
Gsellman made his Major League debut against the Cardinals on August 23 when he came in out of the bullpen for an injured Jon Niese. At triple-A Las Vegas this season, the 23-year-old right-hander had a 5.73 ERA in nine starts (1-5 record).
In the minors this season, the most strikeouts Gsellman had in a game were eight. According to Fangraphs, he has an average velocity of 94 miles per hour on his fastball to go with a slider, breaking ball, and a changeup.
Prediction: For these last two games, the Washington Nationals lineup will need to adjust as the game goes on against pitchers they haven’t seen before. With Roark getting the start, I like the Washington Nationals to win the second game of this series.
Next: Sunday Night's Matchup
Max Scherzer (15-7, 2.89) vs. Seth Lugo (2-2, 2.60) – 8:08 p.m, ESPN
Due to the off day yesterday, Scherzer is able to make this start on Sunday night on normal rest. Against the Phillies on Tuesday, Scherzer went eight innings, gave up two runs on three hits, struck out 11, and walked one on 102 pitches as he picked up his team high 15th win.
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Scherzer led all of Major League Baseball in the month of August in strikeouts with 51 and held opponents to a .170 batting average (lowest in any month this season). Since the break, the ace is 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA over his last eight starts. Out of his 15 wins this season, ten of them have come on the road (10-4, 3.28 ERA).
Since he joined the Washington Nationals, Scherzer has been dominant against the Mets. In seven starts, he has given up eight runs and had 70 strikeouts in over 50 innings. Plus, he has a 1.60 ERA in six starts at Citi Field. This season, he is 2-1 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts against New York. James Loney is 8-for-31 against him with two home runs and eight RBI’s.
Due to Matz being on the disabled list, Lugo has filled in for him in the starting rotation. Against the Marlins on August 30, Lugo went six innings, gave up two runs on five hits, struck out four, and walked one on 89 pitches in a win.
The 26-year-old right-hander made his debut in the big leagues back on July 1 as a reliever. In three starts, Lugo only has 12 strikeouts, but he has given up five runs in 17.2 innings.
Next: Nationals August 2016 Month In Review
At triple-A Las Vegas, Lugo went 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA in 21 games (14 starts). According to Fangraphs, Lugo has an average velocity of 92.5 miles per hour on his fastball, but as Mike Petriello of MLB.com pointed out this week, Lugo can get some great spin on his breaking ball.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see how Lugo handles the primetime stage. But, I think the Washington Nationals get enough runs for Scherzer, who has been dominant against the Mets. The Nats win the series and take two out of three games to further widen their NL East lead.