Washington Nationals: 2016 NLDS Tale Of The Tape
With the NLDS beginning Friday, we look at who has the edge at each position between the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers
The regular season is finally over and the Washington Nationals (95-67) are getting set to begin their NLDS series matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71) on Friday (FS1/MLB Network). Due to two wins over the Marlins this past weekend, the Nats will have home field advantage in this series.
Today, the starting times for the first two games were announced. These two teams will play Game 1 at 5:38 p.m ET on Friday and Game 2 at 4:08 p.m ET on Saturday. You can watch both games on Fox Sports 1:
2016 Postseason start times announced through Sunday, October 9th: pic.twitter.com/wRRm0C7gpw
— MLB Communications (@MLB_PR) October 3, 2016
These two teams haven’t met since July, but the Dodgers went 5-1 in six games against the Nats this season. This includes a three game sweep by the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in June. However, these two teams have changed since that last meeting.
Both of these teams will be looking to shake off droughts in the NLDS. The Dodgers have not advanced to the NLCS since 2013 while the Washington Nationals are trying to avoid their third loss in the NLDS over the last five seasons.
While the postseason rosters won’t be announced until later in the week, I wanted to look at some of the position battles and see which team has the edge at each position. Some of these positions were easily in favor of one team while the others were close battles. Without further ado, here are my position breakdowns for this NLDS showdown.
Catchers: Yasmani Grandal vs. Jose Lobaton/Pedro Severino
The battle of the catchers looked much different until last week before Wilson Ramos tore his ACL. Now, you have to think this matchup leans more towards the Dodgers because they have the everyday catcher.
While Grandal doesn’t hit for a high batting average (.228), he had 26 home runs this year, which was a career-high. Like the rest of this lineup, Grandal struggles against lefties (.177), but he has hit six home runs in each of the last three months of the season.
Earlier in the year, Grandal hit a game-winning three-run home run off Tanner Roark at Dodger Stadium during that Los Angeles sweep. His nine home runs with runners in scoring position were the most of any Dodger this season. Grandal’s backup, Carlos Ruiz, has postseason experience from his time with the Phillies. But, he is at the latter stage of his career.
With Ramos out, catcher isn’t going to be an offensive strength for the Nats this postseason. With that being said, Jose Lobaton is a good catcher to throw to for the Washington Nationals pitching staff. Plus, Pedro Severino has shown a cannon of an arm behind the plate and he has some offense to his game.
Advantage: This category goes to the Dodgers because of Grandal’s ability to impact a game late with the bat. Washington may have the defensive edge with Lobaton, but Grandal’s offense was the difference.
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez vs. Ryan Zimmerman
2016 was the first time that Gonzalez hit fewer than 20 home runs in a year since 2012. His WAR dropped from 3.9 in 2015 to 2.1 this season. That being said, he had 90 RBI’s for the second straight year (seventh among NL first basemen).
Defensively, Gonzalez’s runs saved dropped from ten runs saved last year to three this season (according to Fangraphs). Another factor that works in the Nats favor in this matchup is Gonzalez has only two hits in 22 at-bats against Washington this season and is 5-for-26 against the Game 1 starter, Max Scherzer.
As for Zimmerman, 2016 was a year he might want to forget. The 32-year-old battled injury for the bulk of the season and finished hitting only .218 with 15 home runs and a .642 .OPS. Plus, he had three months this year where his batting average was under .200.
While Zimmerman has shown some good defense at first base, Gonzalez has the edge over him defensively. According to Fangraphs, Zimmerman’s -2 runs saved is the third lowest among qualified first basemen.
Advantage: First base is not a position if you go by the numbers that probably won’t make as big an impact in the NLDS. Gonzalez has five home runs in the last three postseasons (21 hits in 19 games). I like that Baker has shown trust and loyalty to Zimmerman, but he might not be the best first baseman the Nats can throw out there. This one is a big edge for the 34-year-old Gonzalez.
Second Base: Chase Utley vs. Daniel Murphy
Second base is the battle of two players who had their own moments in the postseason a season ago. Utley is well known for his slide on Ruben Tejada in last year’s NLDS while Murphy was hitting home runs and helping the Mets reach the World Series.
Utley may be getting up there in age (37 years old), but he finished the 2016 campaign with 14 home runs (nine of them coming in the second half). Also, Utley hit .281 away from Dodger Stadium this season (.216 on the road). Against the Nats this season, he was 7-for-20 with one home run and four RBI’s.
From his time with the Phillies, Utley has the postseason experience and has put up some big numbers in October. Back in 2009, Utley hit six home runs in a year where Philadelphia reached the World Series. Defensively, Utley’s -3 runs saved were the lowest in his career since 2013 (Fangraphs).
Murphy goes into the postseason with some questions since he still has that buttocks strain and he hasn’t started in a game since September 17. Still, that shouldn’t take away from the MVP-like season he had in his first year in Washington D.C.
This season, Murphy had a slash line of .347/.390/.595 with 25 home runs and 104 RBI’s. He carried over the swing changes he made with the Mets last season that led him to a historic postseason run. While his defense is sub-par, Murphy is going to be one of those players the Nats depend on heavily on offense if healthy.
Advantage: This matchup leans heavily in favor of the Washington Nationals. If Murphy is somewhat healthy, he is going to have more of an impact on how this series is decided than Utley will.
Shortstop: Corey Seager vs. Danny Espinosa
As I looked at the position battles in this series, the one that stands out the most in favor of Los Angeles is at shortstop. Not only is Seager the favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, but the 22-year-old has also been in the MVP discussion at times down the stretch.
This season, Seager had a slash line of .308/.365/.512 with 26 home runs and 72 RBI’s. Plus, he was fifth in the NL in runs scored (105). In the second half, Seager hit .321 with nine home runs and 30 RBI’s. In a small sample size against the Nats, he was 6-for-12 with a solo home run this year.
The one category that Espinosa was able to keep up with Seager in was the long ball. Espinosa had 24 home runs and 72 RBI’s (both career-highs). With that being said, Espinosa hit a mere .209 this year, .172 in the second half, and .106 in September.
At the bottom of the order, Espinosa does bring power to a part of the lineup that needs it. Defensively, Espinosa is tied for fourth in the NL in runs saved (8) and eight runs ahead of Seager (Fangraphs). Espinosa may not hit for average, but he can make a game changing play defensively.
Advantage: Like I said before, I think this matchup leans to the Dodgers in a big way. Seager is emerging as one of the best players in the game. While Espinosa hits home runs and makes big plays defensively, Seager is the better player.
Third Base: Justin Turner vs. Anthony Rendon
When analyzing these matchups, this one has the best chance of being a push since both of these players could be consider their team’s X-Factor in the NLDS. Both Turner and Rendon carried their respective offenses at time.
Let’s start with Turner. This season, the 31-year-old hit .275/.339/.493 with 27 home runs and 90 RBI’s. His 5.0 WAR was third among all third basemen in the NL. Down the stretch, he hit .298 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI’s.
Against the Washington Nationals this season, Turner hit three home runs and drove in seven runs while having a .320 on-base percentage. Turner is key for the Dodgers because he usually hits third in their lineup. His 62 RBI’s with runners in scoring position are second on the team (Gonzalez has 73).
With the injuries to Ramos and Murphy along with the struggles of Bryce Harper, Rendon was relied upon heavily along with Trea Turner in the second half. Rendon hit .291 with 11 home runs and 52 RBI’s after the All-Star Break with 23 of those RBI’s coming in September.
After an injury plagued 2015, Rendon responded this season in a big way. While he wasn’t the player that was in the top five in MVP voting two years ago, he had a slash line of .270/.348/.450 with 20 home runs and 85 RBI’s. His 4.1 WAR was right behind Turner (fourth among NL third basemen).
Rendon did go 5-for-20 with a home run and two RBI’s against the Dodgers this year. With that being said, he was one of the only Nats who had a productive NLDS in 2014 against the Giants (.368, one RBI in four games).
Advantage: Turner and Rendon are even in a lot of categories. Turner has more home runs and RBI’s, but both of these players will be relied upon in this series. You could make the case that the winner of this series will be which third baseman makes the most plays. I’m going to give the slight edge to Turner, but this could be a push.
Left Field: Howie Kendrick vs. Jayson Werth
Kendrick is the utility player for the Dodgers when you consider he has played four different positions. For this tale of the tape, we are placing him in left field, where he has played 94 games this year.
The 33-year-old had eight home runs, but he had a .326 on-base percentage. However, his WAR has gone down drastically since 2014 (5.4 to 0.5). His 124 hits this year were the fourth lowest in a season during his ten-year career. Kendrick went 6-for-18 against the Nats with two RBI’s this season.
Another injury worth monitoring going into the postseason is Jayson Werth’s back injury that caused him to leave Friday’s game early. At age 37, Werth hit 21 home runs, the most he’s hit in a season since he hit 25 in 2013.
Hitting second in the Washington Nationals order, Werth is going to be relied upon to take pitches and work the count. This is especially true in the first two games against Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. Werth’s 71 walks this season were second on the team (Harper had 108) and he took more pitches than anyone on the team.
Werth went 8-for-21 against the Dodgers this season with a solo home run. Plus, he is a career .313 hitter with two solo home runs against Kershaw.
Advantage: For this position, the advantage goes to Werth. Kendrick’s numbers aren’t terrible, but Werth can work the count and cause more havoc in the Nats lineup.
Center Field: Joc Pederson vs. Trea Turner
Both of these players are no older than 24 years old. Pederson has more experience than Turner in terms of fielding center field, but both of players look to have good futures with their respective clubs.
Pederson only hit .246 this season, but the 24-year-old had a .352 on-base percentage and hit 25 home runs. While Pederson is going to strike out a lot at the bottom of the order, he is going to find a way to hit a home run or get on base. His 63 walks were second on the Dodgers in 2016 (Grandal had 64).
This season, Pederson went 4-for-17 against the Nats with a home run and three RBi’s. During the postseason last year, Pederson went 0-for-5, but he did draw four walks in the Dodges NLDS series loss to the New York Mets.
Once Turner was the center fielder for the Washington Nationals, he immediately made an impact on this team. In 73 games, Turner had a slash line of .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs, 40 RBI’s, and had 33 stolen bases in 39 attempts.
While Turner still has some learning to do in center field such as playing balls that get hit off the wall, he has learned quickly to field that position. If you look at the defensive battle at this position, Pederson has one run saved this year (Fangraphs) while Turner is at -2 (Fangraphs).
Turner only got to play in the Dodgers-Nats series at Nats Park in July. He did go 3-for-13, but two of those hits ended up being triples and he had three RBI’s. Turner’s first chance to be on the postseason stage is going to be something fun to watch.
Advantage: Both of these center fielders have bright futures. Pederson has the ability to hit the long ball and draw more walks than Turner. With that being said, Turner has changed the Washington Nationals since he’s been called up and he is key to the running game. To me, Turner gets the edge over Pederson.
Right Field: Josh Reddick/Yasiel Puig vs. Bryce Harper
This is the only position where I have two Dodgers as part of one position. At the trade deadline, Los Angeles went out and acquired Josh Reddick from the A’s in the same deal where they got Rich Hill. But, Reddick hasn’t made the impact that most people thought he would when that deal happened.
In 47 games, Reddick hit .258 with two home runs and nine RBI’s. Despite those numbers with Los Angeles, he is still a player to keep an eye on against right-handed pitching (.322, ten home run, 33 RBI’s). Against lefties like Gio Gonzalez, Roberts is likely to go with Yasiel Puig.
Puig hit .263 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI’s in 103 games. His success is better against left-handed pitching (.261, six home runs, 19 RBI’s). Puig may hit lefties well, but keep an eye on this stat. He is 1-for-11 against Gonzalez in his career.
Harper had a down season this year and wasn’t the player that won the NL MVP a year ago. He did return this past weekend from a thumb injury that caused him to miss four games. He went 2-for-11 with a RBI and eight strikeouts in that series against Miami.
Since the All-Star Break, Harper is hitting .226 with five home runs and 34 RBI’s and he hit only one home run in the month of September. He is still taking his walks, but it is concerning to see Harper continue to get fastballs blown by him consistently.
Harper went 5-for-24 with two home runs and four RBI’s this season, but he did strike out nine times. Just like Rendon, Harper had a great NLDS two years ago when he hit three home runs in four games against the Giants. If the Washington Nationals can get that kind of series form Harper, they should advance to the NLCS.
Advantage: The platoon of Reddick and Puig will be something to watch and Puig can change a game either positively or negatively with his defense. I am going to go with Harper in this matchup despite some of the concerns about his thumb and the power struggles he’s had in the second half.
Starting Rotation
Both of these teams finished in the top five in the National League in starter’s ERA. The Washington Nationals were second in the NL (3.60) while the Dodgers were fifth (3.95). game one is going to be must-see TV on Friday when Clayton Kershaw goes up against Max Scherzer in a battle of aces.
When you look at the Dodgers season, it’s impressive their starters ranked that high in the NL when Kershaw was out for an extended period of time during the year with a back injury. Kershaw lost Saturday against the Giants, but he had a 1.29 ERA in his five starts since returning to the rotation.
As for Scherzer, he is one of the frontrunners for the Cy Young award. He was the only National League pitcher to finish with 20 wins and his 284 strikeouts were the most in the NL. The Nats brought Scherzer in to pitch in these big games in the postseason (4-3, 3.73 ERA in 12 career playoff games).
Throughout the rest of this series, there are some interesting projected pitching matchups. It looks like it’s going to be Rich Hill against Tanner Roark in game two and Kenta Maeda against Gio Gonzalez in game three.
Hill had a 1.83 ERA in seven starts with Los Angeles, but that blister situation he’s had will continue to be a factor. Roark finished the season with 16 wins, 210 innings pitched, and a 2.80 ERA over his final 15 starts.
Another pitcher who won 16 games this season is rookie right-hander Kenta Maeda. The 28-year-old hasn’t faced the Nats yet and he had a 4.25 ERA in his final 14 starts. If there is an X-factor on the pitching side, it’s Gonzalez. The Dodgers do struggle against lefties, but no one knows which Gonzalez will show up in this game.
Advantage: For me, the Dodgers get the edge in the battle of the rotations. While both of these teams have strong pitchers at the top, I like Maeda a little more than Gonzalez because of the unfamiliarity. Now, if Stephen Strasburg were in the Nats rotation, this would have been completely different.
Bullpen
When the postseason begins, the bullpens tend to fall under the microscope. In this NLDS matchup, we have two teams that finished in the top two in the National League in bullpen ERA. The Dodgers had the lowest ERA at 3.35 while the Nats were second (3.37).
Another to look at with these bullpen are that they were both in the top four in lowest batting average against (Dodgers – .210, Nationals – .232). The one stat where the Dodgers had the large edge over the Nats on were strikeouts. LA’s relievers led the league with 633 K’s (Nats were 13th with 489).
If you look at the two closers, it is a push between Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon. Jansen was 47-for-53 in saves and had a 1.83 ERA (20-for-23 in the second half) while Melancon is 17-for-18 in saves since joining in the Nats at the trade deadline.
One reliever to watch on the Dodgers is Joe Blanton. The former starter appeared in 75 games this season and had a 2.48 ERA (no runs allowed in September). On the Nationals side, Shawn Kelley has given up one hit since September 1 and Blake Treinen has given up one run in his last 13 innings.
Another aspect of these bullpens to keep an eye on is the lefties. The Dodgers will look to neutralize Murphy and Harper with Adam Liberatore (3.38 ERA) and rookie Grant Dayton (2.05). On the Nats side, the importance will be on Marc Rzepczynski (1.54) and Sammy Solis (2.41) to keep up LA’s struggles against lefties.
Advantage: The battle of the bullpens is going to be fun to watch in this series because I expect a couple of close games early on in the NLDS. Jansen and Melancon are a push to me. As far as the setup spots goes, I am going to lean towards the Nats because of the way Kelley and Treinen have pitched as of late. If those two guys deliver in October, Baker has three reliable options to go to late in games.
Update: Last night, the Dodgers tweeted out that Liberatore is going to have elbow surgery and will not be available to pitch in the postseason:
Tomorrow, Adam Liberatore is expected to undergo arthroscopic left elbow debridement, by Dr. ElAttrache, and expected to be ready for 2017.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 4, 2016
Managers: Dave Roberts vs. Dusty Baker
This battle between the two managers is going to be interesting to say the least. You have one manager in Roberts who will be managing his first postseason. As for Baker, he’s been a manager in this big stage before from his time with the Giants, Reds, and Cubs.
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When I filled out my IBWAA ballot yesterday, my top two choices for manager of the year in the National League were Roberts and Baker. With all of the pitching injuries the Dodgers had to deal with this year, Roberts did a great job to navigate that team to a NL West title.
Roberts took some heat twice this season when he pulled Ross Stripling and Rich Hill while they were going for no-hitters, but he did the right thing in keeping those pitchers healthy.
This season, Dusty Baker was the right manager the Nats needed after the debacle that was last season. He was able to bring the clubhouse together and I liked that he let his starters go deep into games and trusted them to get out of key situations.
One aspect of the game that I want to see how each manager utilizes in this series is their bench. Two reserves on the Dodgers to watch are outfielders Andrew Toles (.314, one home run, 16 RBI’s in 48 games) and Andre Ethier (eight RBI’s in 35 career playoff games).
On the Washington Nationals, Stephen Drew had a great month of September filling in for Murphy at second base (.296, one home run, four RBI’s). Two other names to watch are infielder Wilmer Difo and outfielder Brian Goodwin, should they make the NLDS roster.
Next: 2016 Offense Best In Team History
Advantage: I am going to go with Baker because of the postseason experience, but this one is a close call. With that being said, Roberts has done a great job in his first year in a big city like Los Angeles.