Washington Nationals: Five Reasons They Will Lose NLDS

INJURIES

No team is healthy this time of year.

Baseball being the grinding marathon we all love has players banged up and tired by the time October rolls around. For the Washington Nationals, they wish it was that simple.

There will be no Stephen Strasburg against the Dodgers. If you think they will not miss the 16-game winner this weekend, check how short your fingernails are Tuesday night. Likely to start Game 3, if healthy, in Los Angeles, his departure throws how Dust Baker handles the bullpen into a different light. After Scherzer and Tanner Roark, they have no starter who can give you six innings like he could have.

If Washington advances, we may see Strasburg in the NLCS, which is not the case with Wilson Ramos.

Although Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino are good players on their own right, to lose Ramos’ offense and have the entire pitching staff adjust on the fly to catchers they are not fully comfortable with is a tough task. The younger pitchers will know Severino from their days in Syracuse. Severino, however, has yet to catch in 20 Major League games.

All this and we are assuming Daniel Murphy will be healed from his left glute injury and Bryce Harper’s shoulder holds out.

RISP, MOVE THAT LINE

This one is a common reason why teams lose in the postseason. When there are runners on second and third, they are stranded too often.

With the better starting pitching and exceptional bullpens, the opportunity to produce runs shrinks this time of year. Smart teams can try to manufacture runs by stealing or taking an extra base, but after a bad game where a team may go 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position, it will get in your head.

This season, the Nationals slash line in RISP situations was .259/.350/.414. With a gross OPS of .764, that adjusts to an OPS+ of 103 or three percent above average. If there are two outs, the slash line is .225/.339/.379. The OPS is .718 and adjusts to an OPS+ of 103. Again, right around average.

The good news is the Nationals are a solid offensive unit. The bad news is with Harper in a funk, there is no one hitter who will cause a lack of sleep at the Dodgers’ hotel. Trea Turner can set the table but, at least once a game, he will bat behind the pitcher.

You will hear RISP mentioned on television. If the Nats cannot take advantage of their chances, the season ends next week.

NO PATIENCE AT THE PLATE

One thing we have noticed down the stretch is the Washington Nationals are hacking as they come to the plate.

It is so important this time of year to wear out the other pitcher. Although the Dodgers’ bullpen is good as a whole, it is vital to have at least one game where they need to get 15 outs to win a game. The best way to do that is make Clayton Kershaw and company throw strikes and layoff bad pitches.

Look how successful the Boston Red Sox have been in decent years making pitchers grind in every at-bat. If the last month is any sign, the Nats are not being patient and are letting pitchers dictate the game on their terms.

With the added pressure of the playoffs, anything the Nats hitters can do to disrupt a pitcher’s timing and patience will tip the balance in their favor. Recently, they have not.

If they cannot slow the game down to a pace of their choosing, momentum will swing the wrong way. The team does little to defend the strike zone. If we do not see long, tense at-bats in the first two games, the Nationals will be in trouble. Take pitches.

GIO GONZALEZ’S START

You hate to say one player makes the difference between winning and golf season, but Gio Gonzalez’s bad September will cause a few headaches in the organization and adult beverage purchases in the District.

Forget his ability to get left-handed hitters out. When you throw 90 and flat and have a vacant look behind the eyes, there is reason to be concerned.

How awful was September? In five starts, Gonzalez went 1-2 with an ERA of 7.43. He pitched under five innings a game, working 23 innings and allowing 34 hits. Those 25 strikeouts are fool’s gold. When the NL made contact off him, the BABIP was .444.

If you think he is a master of lefties, guess again. They hit .247 against him. When making contact, the BABIP is .298. Not awful numbers, but not the stuff of legends either. Righties hit .267, .327 when putting the ball in play.

If Strasburg could start, Gonzalez would be bullpen bound with Joe Ross healthy. Instead he will throw around five heartburn inducing innings. When he wins, the ERA is 2.55. Those losses though are brutal as his ERA balloons to 7.22.

Watch the body language. A quick start can fall apart fast.

BRYCE HARPER

Yes, it is piling on to put the offensive pressure onto one player, but Bryce Harper is a superstar. If he continues to flail around at the plate and take pitches he should swing at, the season will be over soon.

More from District on Deck

• Latest DraftKings Sportsbook Promo Code in Maryland: Bet $5, Win $200 Guaranteed
• Nationals Claim Jeter Downs Off Waivers
• Washington Nationals Minor League Spotlight: Robert Hassell III
• Washington Nationals Tuesday Q&A
• 3 Free Agents the Nationals Should Gamble On

NL pitchers have learned to pitch him on the outside corner in the strike zone. He will watch pitches instead of defending the plate and making them work harder. His confidence is so bad, his sense of what to swing at is off and will produce an ugly at-bat at least once a game.

Maybe he has a bad shoulder and is keeping it to himself. Perhaps Harper and Baker have differences and Harper’s concentration wanes a bit much. Other managers watched how Joe Maddon pitched around him in May at Wrigley Field and how that got into Harper’s head.

He has to forget about all that now and produce. Outside of some flashes of brilliance at the plate, and his ability to draw walks, the Harper of 2016 is a shadow of 2015 and his tremendous talent.

Next: We Predict the NLDS

The Dodgers will test him. If he shows up as the .210 September hitter, the Washington Nationals are in deep trouble.