Washington Nationals: Predictions For Dodgers-Nats NLDS
Today, our staff gives their picks for the NLDS between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers
We are now a little more than 24 hours away from the Washington Nationals playing Game 1 of the 2016 NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers (5:38 p.m ET, FS1). It is a highly anticipated pitcher’s duel between Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.
For the Los Angeles Dodgers, it’s an opportunity for them to advance to their first NLCS since 2013 after losing in the first round each of the last two seasons. As for the Washington Nationals, they are looking to advance to the NLCS for the first time in team history since the franchise moved to Washington D.C.
There are numerous storylines abound in this series. A couple of them are how the Washington Nationals will handle losing Stephen Strasburg and Wilson Ramos for the postseason. On the Dodgers side, how will Dave Roberts handle managing his first postseason? As we saw in the AL Wild Card game Tuesday night, even the best of managers can make a big mistake.
Today, our staff will share with you their keys to the series as well as a prediction for how they see this series shaking out. Also, we have a prediction from the opposing side. Up first will be Alex Campos, who is the editor for the Dodgers FanSided site, Dodgers Way.
It’s been known for a while that the Dodgers and Nationals would be squaring off in the first round of the postseason. Neither team was going to catch the Cubs, and neither team was going to get caught in the last week or two of the regular season.
This feels wrong and unnatural after the regular season, but the Dodgers actually have a huge advantage in the health department. The rotation is healthy, position players are healthy and the bullpen is mostly healthy. Trayce Thompson would be nice to have, but Andrew Toles has taken his spot very nicely. Adam Liberatore is hurt, but his performance didn’t exactly make him an obvious choice for the Dodgers’ bullpen.
On the other hand, Stephen Strasburg and Wilson Ramos are hurt while Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy will be playing at less than 100 percent. At full strength this would be an incredible matchup that probably goes five games and leaves us all with heart attacks, but depending on what Harper and Murphy can provide, this series seems to favor the Dodgers pretty heavily.
The Dodgers didn’t exactly end the season strong, losing five of their six post-clinch games. Most of those losses were due to guys that aren’t on the playoff roster, but that stretch insured that the Dodgers would open up on the road. They were much better at home than on the road this year, but I don’t think that’ll matter too much in this series. Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill can pitch anywhere, and I like the idea of Kenta Maeda and possibly Julio Urias starting at home rather than on the road.
In no way do I trust this series. Max Scherzer is my Cy Young pick and can cancel out Kershaw. Tanner Roark was low key phenomenal this year and could definitely match Hill. Gio Gonzalez was struggled, but he’s a human that throws with his left hand so he’ll probably throw seven shutout frames against the Dodgers. Harper and Murphy might not be 100 percent, but they’ll still scare me every time they’re at the plate. Trea Turner would have a ROY case in a world without Corey Seager. In a five-game bubble, anything could happen.
However, this year the Dodgers have an extremely solid bullpen. That’s been their demise in recent postseasons, but they have a nice mix with some high strikeout arms that will protect virtually any lead they get. That being said, if I have to make a prediction, I’ll take the Dodgers in four.
Up next is District On Deck staff writer Matt Holleran, who talks about the importance of Bryce Harper
The Nationals had a great regular season, and are once again in the playoffs for the third time in the past five years. If they want to beat the Dodgers and move on to the NLCS, the biggest key for them in this series is the reigning NL MVP, Bryce Harper, getting back on track.
The Washington Nationals have been able to stay afloat and have success all season, without Harper being the player we all know he is capable off. In the playoffs this will be a different story. The pitching the Nationals will be facing will be much improved, and with the injury to Wilson Ramos, the Nationals are going to need Harper to produce even more. In 2014 Harper carried the team in their series vs the San Francisco Giants. If he can get back to playing the way he did during that series, there is no question this team can be a serious World Series contender.
My prediction for the series is the Nationals win in 4 games and move on to the NLCS. I believe that Max Scherzer will out duel Clayton Kershaw in game one, and give the Nationals the early momentum in the series. I also believe that Gio Gonzalez will have a stellar outing in game three, and Trea Turner and Bryce Harper will carry the team offensively.
Batting third in our predictions is Matt Weyrich, who talks about Gio Gonzalez as the X-Factor:
While Stephen Strasburg’s injury certainly puts a damper on the club’s World Series hopes, the team will not lose much ground because of it through the first two games. Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark have been as good as it gets on the mound this season, and should be able to match up with Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. If the Nats are going to win this series, however, they’re going to need a strong performance out of Gio Gonzalez.
The sole lefty on the staff, Gonzalez has been streaky all season. On the year Los Angeles posted a .213/.290/.332 slash line against left handed pitching, all of which ranked dead last in the majors. Gio is the Nats’ only hope to take advantage of such slanted splits. Pitted against impressive rookie Kenta Maeda, the margin for error will be very thin. If Kershaw gets the best of Scherzer or Hill beats out Roark, then it will be up to Gonzalez to go into enemy territory and keep the Dodgers’ bats quiet.
Prediction: The Nats and Dodgers can go toe-to-toe on the pitching mound, but with a healthy Daniel Murphy and strong series from Trea Turner, Washington will hold the edge at the plate. They will win the series 3-1
In the cleanup spot, we have co-editor Ron Juckett, who talks about the importance of Tanner Roark in a best-of-5
Tanner Roark’s start is critical if the Washington Nationals are to get past the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If he goes in Game 2, he should face the fragile Rich Hill. For whatever reason Dusty Baker waits until Game 3, he’d face playoff rookie Kenta Maeda. Either way, even with Maeda’s great first-season, the odds stack on the side of Roark.
The preference is a Game 2 start at home. If you figure Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw is even on paper, Roark winning Game 2 puts all the pressure back on Los Angeles when they fly back home for Monday’s Game 3. If Scherzer wins, you may force Kershaw to pitch Game 4 on short rest to save the series and throw rookie Julio Urias to start Game 5 in DC. No way they go Rich Hill on short rest.
Roark has handled the tough assignments all year. He will not baffle the Dodgers as Scherzer will, but in the shadows at home Saturday, his chances are fairly good.
Washington has the luxury of home field and Scherzer twice. They will not need it. Nats in four. Gio Gonzalez fumbles in Game 3 while Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez pitch DC into the NLCS.
Batting fifth is staff writer Chris Lacey, who talks about the rest of the Washington Nationals rotation:
One key for the Nationals to have success against the Los Angeles Dodgers is to receive great contributions from someone in the rotation besides Max Scherzer.
Scherzer was the club’s best pitcher in the regular season, but he wasn’t the only reason the Nats were second in the National League with a 3.60 rotation ERA. There were other pitchers on the staff who upped their game, such as Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez.
Roark led the Nats’ rotation with a 2.83 ERA and was second in innings pitched (210).
He took over the role of second-best starter on the team when Stephen Strasburg went on the disabled list and was superb during the 2016 campaign.
Gonzalez had mixed results this season as there were some starts he was lights out and other occasions it was a monumental struggle for him. This led to the southpaw compiling a 4.57 ERA in 170-plus innings. He is a quality pitcher, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the right version of Gio in the postseason.
It’s expected that Scherzer will set the tone in the first game of the NLDS with a stellar performance. If Roark and Gonzalez can do the same, the Nationals have a great chance of advancing to the NLCS.
Prediction: Nats win the series in five games over the Dodgers.
In the number six spot, we have staff writer Josh McPeak, who says the Nats offense will carry the day
It would have been very easy to pick the Dodgers in game one. Clayton Kershaw is probably the most dominant pitcher of today’s game. However, with the news of a fully healthy Daniel Murphy returning, I’m going with the Nats. As of now, it even appears Murphy is a full go to play second base. Game one will be a very tight and fast paced game. In the end, the hopeful Cy Young award winner -Max Scherzer will trump Kershaw. The atmosphere in the Nation’s Capital will be electric.
We still don’t know who is taking the mound in what order between Tanner Roark and Gio
Gonzalez. That alone makes it hard to pick games two and three. Gio has been a rollercoaster during the regular season. I’m not sure how he will perform in such an electric atmosphere. Dusty Baker may elect to start Gio in game three versus Kenta Maeda. If so, I like Roark to pull the upset in game two versus Rich Hill. After all, the entire place will be rocking after Drake and Adam LaRoche throw out the first pitch in game two.
F.P. Santangelo may blow a fuse after the Laroche’s take the mound.
If the bats of the Washington Nationals get hot, it could be a three game sweep. Daniel Murphy is back and Bryce Harper comes alive during the postseason. Those two bats behind the phenomenon Trea Turner, gives the Nats a very solid potential to make a run.
As for the series, I’ve got the Nats advancing in four games.
Finally, co-editor Ricky Keeler talks about how the bullpens playing a factor, but the pick may surprise you
When looking at this series, the most intriguing aspect is going to be the battle of the bullpens. Coming into the postseason, these two teams had the two lowest bullpen ERA”s in the National League during the regular season.
At the closer position, the matchup between Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon is a push since those two are two of the best in the NL. If these games remain close throughout, it will be up to the setup men to build the bridge to their respective closers.
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For the Washington Nationals, the key will be how Dusty Baker uses the lefty relievers he puts on the roster against a lineup that struggles against left-handers. Plus, Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen need to keep the strong form that they had in the month of September.
On the Dodgers side, the name I want to focus on is left-handed reliever Grant Dayton. With the injury to Adam Liberatore, Dayton will play a big role in trying to shut down the Nats left-handed bats (Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper). Dayton has a 2.05 ERA in 25 games since making his MLB debut on July 22 (lefties hitting .140 with one RBI).
Prediction: I expect this series to be close, but I am going to go with the Dodgers. I think the depth of their lineup is going to make an impact and third baseman Justin Turner is going to continue to hurt the Nats. With Murphy and Harper banged up, how quickly can they get shake off the rust?
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Plus, as bad as the Dodgers are against lefties, it’s tough to trust Gio Gonzalez in September. I do think the Washington Nationals split the first two games at home, but I think LA wins Game 3 and Clayton Kershaw pitches on three day rest and wins Game 4 over Joe Ross.