Washington Nationals: Five Reasons They Win The NLDS
Nervous about the Washington Nationals chances against the Los Angeles Dodgers? Don’t be. Here is why they will win the NLCS.
The time has come and the Washington Nationals are ready to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Divisional Series.
What could go wrong? Well, we already covered that.
The better question is why should we be optimistic? The answers are many.
Washington finished 2016 with a 95-win season and an eight-game margin over the New York Mets in the NL East. They feature 20-game winner Max Scherzer on the mound and a solid lineup from top to bottom. Their 73 errors committed were second-best in the NL while Washington’s .988 fielding percentage is tops.
Teams that do not beat themselves win. The Nationals fit that category.
Yes, you should feel optimistic about the series ahead. They avoided the crazy Wild Card Game and secured home field for the NLDS. Outside of the red-hot Chicago Cubs, the Nationals in 2016 did everything they had to do.
Yet the team, since moving from Montreal in 2005, has yet to win a playoff series. The last time the franchise advanced at all was in 1981. In that strike-shortened season, the Expos defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in the first NLDS in five games.
With three divisional titles in five years, this is the year the Nats should advance again. Playoffs are a nervous time and weaknesses get exposed. Nerves fray and the Washington Redskins are in full swing.
Time to fully sink into the National Football League, right?
Wrong. This team is different. Here are the top five reasons this is the season the Nationals win the NLDS.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
Yes, it matters.
Opening the series, and potentially the deciding game, makes a huge difference to how players and fans react. With such a potential pitcher’s duel between Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Max Scherzer, having 40,000 loud fans behind you can make the difference. Imagine the boost for Scherzer if there is a deciding Game 5.
You see stories on how the home crowds are the 12th man for the Seattle Seahawks and Texas A&M Aggies, for football. If you heard how loud Rogers Centre was for the Toronto Blue Jays during Tuesday’s American League Wild Card Game, you understand how the faithful work to their advantage.
Although we remember a specific turning point how a series is won or lost it is the small things that determine who moves on. If the Dodgers somehow blow Game 4, then they fly across the country to a hostile park with their season on the line. For the Nats, having a security blanket of friendly fans and sleeping in their own bed before the biggest game of the year is a plus.
If executed right, Washington does not have to win in Los Angeles. Take care of business at home and move on. With the teams playing three times a year at each other’s park, knowledge of how to handle Nationals Park will play a role.
TREA TURNER
With over 30 stolen bases and power, the Washington Nationals have a leadoff hitter that can set the table right from the start.
His ability to get on base the second half of this year changed how teams approached the rest of the offense. Only Bryce Harper, with his .373 on-base percentage, topped Turner’s .370
There will be butterflies for Turner, especially with the odd starting times and playing centerfield. Once the game is under way, and he understands the ball is the same size, he will relax and perform.
Turner at the plate can do everything. His eight triples were top five in the NL. In 73 games, he smashed 13 homers and his 33 stolen bases defied expectations.
His defense will improve as playing the outfield becomes instinctual. As the rest of the clubhouse focuses on the task at hand, Turner will adjust.
As long as he remains carefree, he will be fine while giving the Dodgers an extra thing to worry about. Turner’s teammates have his back. Playing those first playoff games at home will help too.
After doing everything right to close the season, there is no reason to think the change of the calendar will turn him into a pumpkin.
SOLID POWER BASE
As Bryce Harper works through an off year, those casual fans might think there is nothing remarkable about the Washington Nationals offense. Right?
Instead of one superstar and a good supportive cast, the Nationals are the first team since the 1965 Milwaukee Braves to feature six hitters with over 20 home runs. What may surprise you more is Daniel Murphy’s 25 leads the team.
Although Wilson Ramos is lost due to a torn ACL in his right knee, the Nats will line up against the Dodgers with five of the six sluggers. That is not counting the 15 hit by Ryan Zimmerman and the 13 slugged by Turner in a half-season.
This year’s team scored a record 763 runs and four players drove in over 80 runs. Harper is healthy too. So, while there is not one hitter right now who will cause lost sleep for Los Angeles before the series starts, the pitchers will need to be careful. Even the light-hitting Daniel Espinosa can leave the yard regularly.
Sometimes, solid beats spectacular. For Washington, this is the case. With Zimmerman buried at the bottom of the lineup and Ben Revere left off the roster, aside from the pitcher’s spot, there is no place for the Dodgers to relax on the mound.
DANIEL MURPHY
He did more than pound the New York Mets.
Healed from a left glute injury late in the year in Atlanta, Murphy returns to the lineup after hitting .347 this season and slugging .595. Along with an OPS of .985, he finished league best in in that and slugging and a razor-thin second place in the batting crown.
Forget his defense, having him rested and ready for the NLDS is a huge boost for the Nats. If he bat’s third, as he did most of the year, his job will be to bring Trea Turner home if the rookie gets on base and give Harper and Anthony Rendon RBI opportunities.
His 25 homers and 104 RBI are a career high, yet his 47 doubles are a more dangerous contribution. If the Dodgers pitch around Murphy, Harper and Rendon are there to inflict damage. With home field, a slow and steady drip of base hits and Nats fans will get into the heads of the Dodgers.
If this series is determined by a laundry list of items instead of on big play, Murphy’s ability to reach base over and over becomes more important. As Harper slumped, Murphy picked up the slack. Something the Nats can exploit.
DUSTY BAKER
The grizzled veteran returns for his seventh postseason as a manager and 11th overall in Major League Baseball.
Yes, he has never won the World Series as a manager, but 2016 is his 21st as a manager. The likeable Dave Roberts in the Dodger’s dugout is completing his first as a manager.
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Nothing new will be there for Baker. He brings to October the team he has had since the Mark Melancon trade.
The players love him and Baker is relaxed and happy. At 67, he has been there and done that. He pulled all the right strings this year as they marched to the division win, not getting too down when things went bad.
He can exploit Roberts playoff inexperience. Having Tanner Roark pitching behind Max Scherzer helps too.
As a long-time Dodger outfielder, Baker can help the youngsters on what to expect in Los Angeles and how Dodger Stadium plays at different times of day.
What will be instinctual to Baker will take a couple games for Roberts in his first postseason. With the able help of Davey Lopes, Mike Maddux and Chris Speier, all playoff and Los Angeles-tested, they set a relaxed mood the team will follow.
There is always pressure in the playoffs. Baker’s best job is diffusing it. Follow the toothpick and smile all the way to the NL Championship Series.