Washington Nationals: What If Stephen Strasburg Left?
The Washington Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg a seven-year extension back in April. What if they never gave him that deal?
Last year, the Washington Nationals looked like a team bound to make a World Series run.
However, their championship aspirations took a big hit when pitcher Stephen Strasburg injured his forearm, forcing him to become a spectator for the remainder of the 2016 season.
Before his injury, Strasburg was looking like a Cy Young arm, but he was hit hard in his last few outings before suffering his elbow injury. While Strasburg’s injury devastated their World Series hopes, the Nationals are also faced with the issue of his long-term durability, due to the massive contract they extended to him.
With Strasburg bound to hit the free agent market, the Nationals felt that he might leave for a big market team like the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
As a result, they gave Strasburg a monster seven-year/$175 million deal to keep him in the nation’s capital long term.
Strasburg’s elbow woes then came back to haunt him yet again. With year one of his extension beginning this year, the Nationals are likely wondering whether extending him was the wrong course of action. If they didn’t extend him, they may have been able to improve, and readjust their team in several ways this offseason.
Dexter Fowler Could’ve Been Signed
First off, if Strasburg had reached the free agent market, there would’ve been no team who would’ve offered him the mega deal that the Nationals gave him due to the elbow worries.
Elbow discomfort and injury have always been an issue for Strasburg and, if the Nationals had waited until the offseason, they probably would’ve been able to ink him for 60 million less.
At first that may sound absurd, but signing a pitcher in his prime to a seven-year deal with an history of elbow discomfort is something very few, if any, would be willing to do. You can’t take that risk. If the Nationals waited until the winter to resign Strasburg, they could’ve used the money to sign two free agents to fill two big voids.
While Washington was able to trade for outfielder Adam Eaton, albeit the hefty price of top pitching prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez and pitcher Dane Dunning, they would’ve been better off signing a center fielder rather than trading for one. By waiting to extend Strasburg, the Nationals would’ve been able to make a run at Chicago Cubs outfielder Dexter Fowler.
Fowler, the switch hitting centerfielder, played well for the Cubs and helped propel them to a World Series championship. However, the Cubs couldn’t afford to keep him long term, so they let him walk to the rival Cardinals.
St. Louis inked him to a five-year/$82.5 million deal. Fowler wouldn’t have come cheap, but he would’ve filled the void in center for the Nationals, and signing Fowler wouldn’t have cost them their top two pitching prospects (Giolito,Lopez).
Also by not extending Strasburg, the Nationals would’ve likely been able to re-sign All Star closer Mark Melancon.
Mark Melancon Would’ve Been Resigned
Due to budget restrictions, and an unwillingness to spend an absurd amount of money, the Nationals let closer Mark Melancon walk to the San Francisco Giants on a four-year/$62 million dollar deal.
Despite their unwillingness to spend big this offseason, the Nationals still extended an offer to Melancon, but it was for 10 million less in total.
Could the Nationals have allocated some of the unused money on Strasburg to match the Giants’ offer? Yes.
The Nationals currently have an issue on their hands in regards to the backend of their bullpen – whether to trade for a closer, or find the solution internally.
They have already swung and missed on Melancon, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, which leaves former Kansas City Royals reliever Greg Holland as the best remaining free agent reliever. However, Holland hasn’t been healthy in two years, and he’s a risk for any team.
Melancon though is not. He is a top five reliever, and losing him is like pulling a tooth for the Nationals. If they weren’t so keen on resigning Melancon, they could’ve made a trade to find their solution at closer.
In the Adam Eaton deal, the Nationals gave up Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning. If they hadn’t gave Strasburg the megadeal, and used that money to sign Fowler, they could’ve easily dealt for a closer.
Two guys the Nationals were said to have interest in were Royals reliever Wade Davis and Tampa Bay Rays All-Star closer Alex Colome. By not trading for Eaton, the Nationals could’ve dealt Giolito or Lopez for one of the two and, while it would’ve been tough to trade a starting pitching prospect for a reliever, it would’ve been more plausible than the super-deal the Nationals made for Eaton, due to the bullpen being more of a necessity than an outfielder.
The Nationals Window Is Closing Rapidly
By giving Stephen Strasburg a seven-year extension, the Nationals were banking on the injury prone days being behind him. He’d pan out to be a Cy Young arm at the top of their rotation.
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Despite his final few starts before the elbow injury, Strasburg was looking like the clear choice for National League Cy Young, as the Nationals were winning nearly every game that he pitched.
Strasburg was also becoming a dominant strikeout pitcher. His injury now leaves the Nationals with reason to worry now and in the long run.
The Nationals window to win a championship is closing rapidly, especially with the Cubs only getting better. If the Nationals are going to make a World Series run, they need Strasburg to be on top of his game, but more importantly, they need him to be healthy.
If he’s not healthy, it’ll be very hard to see the Nationals going far in October.
Also, while injury lead to his absence this postseason, this is the second time in three postseason appearances that Strasburg hasn’t been on the Nationals postseason roster. The other time was in 2012 when the Nationals organization decided that not pitching their ace in the postseason was the appropriate way to go about things for his long term stability. Remember, the Nationals haven’t once gotten out of the first round.
The Nationals may have won the World Series in 2012, and they had a real shot at the World Series this year, but injuries to Strasburg and Ramos deflated their chances.
Next: Speed Important For Nats
2017 is the biggest and most important year for the Nationals. Their success will be reliant on their ability to stay on the field, and the Nationals are banking on Strasburg remaining healthy now and in the long run.