Not only was Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner a breakout star on the field in 2016, but he also helped a lot of Fantasy Baseball teams. What is his value in 2017?
Last season, Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner was one of those rare breakout stars that was effective in both fantasy formats. Turner has skills that will make him a star in points leagues, but in Roto/categories leagues his ability to steal a lot of bases and post high numbers in all other categories is rare. For you fantasy players in dynasty leagues he is the 12th best player to keep according to ESPN’s Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings for 2017 and Beyond.
Is there any chance Turner can repeat his breakout 2016 performance in 2017? There are three factors that will really effect the Washington Nationals shortstop this year Cost, Value and Performance.
Needless to say you won’t be able to pick Turner up off of any waiver wire this year. He played like a star and will be treated as such in most fantasy drafts this year. In early mock drafts,vhe has been going no later than the second round in both formats. He currently ranks 16th on Tristan Cockcroft’s top 250 Fantasy Baseball Rankings on ESPN.com.
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That is 16th in the whole entire league, he ranks higher than players such as Carlos Correa, Chris Sale, Corey Seager and fellow Nats infielder Daniel Murphy. That is a high price for someone who has only proven themselves for just under half a season. Does he have the value that should garner such a cost in most leagues?
It is extremely rare in fantasy baseball that you find someone who hits for a high average, has home run power and will steal you a good amount of bases. Another huge part of Turner’s fantasy value this year will be his position eligibility.
Turner will be eligible to play at second base and outfield to begin the year and will gain shortstop eligibility after 10 games. This makes him even more valuable because he can be used at three positions on your team. His flexibility gives you flexibility as a team once you run into the inevitable injury bug.
In 73 games last year, Turner stole 33 bases. There was no player in the league that stole more bases , hit over 10 home runs and hit at an average of .315 or higher. Imagine the steal numbers he could put up in a full year. If he gets 50 steals that automatically makes him a Fantasy star!
Now, if you add on a possible 20 home runs and a .290 average, he is certainly going to be very valuable. Even with all of those great projected stats, is he worth a second round pick?
My biased self says yes he is since he is one of my keepers in my personal league, but my conventional self says probably not. He is going to regress in batting average and he does strikeout at a rather high rate.
Plus, even though he is extremely fast, he finished with a .388 BABIP (according to Fangraphs) and that is not sustainable throughout a whole year. There is always the chance he has a dreaded sophomore slump and regresses even more than some are predicting.
As much as I tried to highlight the possible negatives, I am certain Turner will provide some value to your team this year. My suggestion is to grab Trea Turner in the late second round/early third round of your draft if possible.
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It’s hard to see a scenario barring injury that Turner doesn’t finish in the top three in stolen bases in all of baseball in 2017. As far as fantasy performance goes, I doubt that he will finish outside of the top 5 at shortstop. He has all the tools to be a star in the league and a bonafide keeper in fantasy leagues for years to come.