Washington Nationals: How Does Starting Pitching Rank In The NL East?
The Washington Nationals boast a strong starting pitching rotation. How does one of the best in the game compare with the rest of the NL East?
Perhaps the biggest reason the Washington Nationals won the National League East last year came from the strength of their starting pitching.
Although the offense sets the table, the five starters set the pace. On a good day, they save the bullpen excessive wear and tear. A great one frustrates the other offense and might, even in this age, give that pen a day off.
The ability to keep other teams guessing six to eight innings a night separates good teams from bad. Over the course of a 162-game marathon, the teams that remain fresh and healthy survive. Today’s pitching staffs are built on proper management and control.
Experience tells us you can never have enough pitching. From the staff ace able to reset the worst of slumps every fifth day to the young starter grinding an extra out to save a tired bullpen arm, how these collections of arms handle the season determines their team’s fate.
As we enter 2017, there are profound changes within the division. The rise of the next generation of arms prevails with some. A healthy and young group awaits in New York. In Washington, it is recovering from injury and exceeding expectation.
How do these five rotations rank with each other? Which team is tested come October? In their effort to repeat as division champions, do the Washington Nationals have the arm power to control their own destiny?
Those answers will reveal themselves between now and October. For now, here is how we think those staffs stack up against each other.
5) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Anchored by Jeremy Hellickson, the Philadelphia Phillies feature the youngest quintet of starters in the division. Hellickson, along with Jerad Eickhoff posted above-average ERA+ last year and made over 30 starts each.
Add Clay Buchholz, freed from his years with the Boston Red Sox, and you have a capable front three. This division requires you have five decent starters to contend, something the young Phillies come into the season lacking.
Aaron Nola is undergoing treatment for a UCL sprain in his elbow and a pesky flexor mass strain in the forearm. The young Vince Velasquez gives the Phillies a strikeout pitcher, fanning 10.4-per-nine, but he tossed 131 innings in 24 big-league starts last year.
There are prospects aplenty with the rebuilding Phillies, but this year is about learning how to survive on the major-league level. Last year, seven starters took the hill ten times or more. As the Phillies adjust, expect more of the same this year from Philadelphia.
Although they want to compete with the rest of the division, this season is about establishing a baseline of the future. With any household name on the staff headed for free agency such as Hellickson, planting the seeds for the rest of the decade is the agenda.
Some nights will show brilliance, others whiplash. Growing pains often do. It will get better, just not this year.
4) MIAMI MARLINS
No team comes into 2017 with a deeper emotional hole than the Miami Marlins.
Jose Fernandez was not just the staff ace, but the emotional leader of the club. For a team trying to contend for a wild card spot, how they handle his passing over the course of a season, along with the potential sale of the club, tells this team’s story.
On the field, Edinson Volquez and Dan Straily join the starting rotation. Volquez arrives from the Kansas City Royals with the know how to win a championship and 12 years experience. The downside is he led the American League last year allowing 113 earned runs.
Straily arrives in Miami after a successful year with the Cincinnati Reds. A 14-game winner with a 1.186 WHIP, he pitches deep into games without allowing too many hits. When he is hit, the ball flies. His 31 homers topped the NL last year.
They join the new staff ace Wei-Yin Chen, fellow lefty Adam Conley and Tom Koehler in the rotation. Chen and Conley failed to throw 150 innings each while Koehler averaged under six innings a start. Conley’s ERA+ of 102 tops the returning Marlins starters as they all give up the long ball too often.
The bullpen is the strength of the entire staff. If the Marlins are to contend, they need the starters to pitch deeper and settle down. Volquez must lead the way by getting his ERA back into the mid-3’s and shoot for 200 innings.
3) ATLANTA BRAVES
A new era in Atlanta Braves baseball starts this year as the team moves into brand new SunTrust Park in suburban Cobb County.
Behind new manager Brian Snitker, the Braves came close to playing .500 ball the last three quarts of 2016 and hope to do the same again in their new digs.
They feature new grizzled veteran talent in Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey to go with their ace Julio Teheran. In Teheran they have a stopper who can slam a losing streak down every fifth day. Do not let his 7-10 record last year fool you. He posted an ERA of 3.21 in 188 innings along with a WHIP of 1.053.
Anyplace else and he is a 15-18-game winner.
Atlanta returns touted prospect Mike Foltynewicz to the rotation. His control rivals Teheran. Given a full chance to see what he can do behind the veteran three, he could throw 150-170 innings of effective baseball.
At 44, Colon is still effective. Best known for his rotund look, “Big Sexy” won 15 for the Mets last year while hurling 191.2 innings. Better yet, his ERA topped out at an outstanding 3.43. He throws strikes, rarely walking hitters. The last two years, he led the league in walks-per-nine.
Garcia arrives in Atlanta via a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. Needing a change of scenery after an off year, he brings another arm capable of throwing around 180 innings and a healthy strikeout rate. Where he gets into trouble is with the long ball, allowing 26 last year. Hard to say what happens in the new yard.
Dickey and his aging knuckler round out the rotation while there is a gaggle of prospects who have the pressure of last year taken off. As with the Phillies, the Braves are in transition. But, they have a better bridge to get there.
2) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
When healthy, they boast one of the best staffs in the game. Yet, that lack of health burnt the Nats last year.
They return largely with the same staff as last year. Max Scherzer defends his 20-win Cy Young effort. Tanner Roark earned a spot as the second ace in September. Stephen Strasburg returns from his flexor strain to a seven-year contract while Joe Ross and Gio Gonzalez are a solid back end.
If everyone stays healthy.
Aside from Strasburg’s troubles, we now know Scherzer pitched two months with a stress fracture in his right ring finger knuckle. Ross missed time with a tired shoulder. Gonzalez’s confidence is shot, easily frustrated at the first sign of trouble. Still, at full strength, they can dominate hitters and pitch deep into games.
Without an established closer, they will need the extra effort to save arms along the way.
Before injuries ended Strasburg’s campaign, he started the season 13-0. Roark won 16 and posted the best ERA in the rotation at 2.83. If the front three make their scheduled 100 starts, they can flirt with 60 wins. Last year, they recorded 51 in 91.
Gonzalez was the lone starter to have an ERA over four at 4.57. As a fifth starter, he should face easier pitching opponents and give the Nats rare depth in the slot. If injuries force him to third, they are in trouble.
Strasburg pitches this year with a chip on his shoulder. We saw last year what he could do healthy. With his future settled, watch for more of the same as he enters the prime of his career.
1) NEW YORK METS
What tips the balance towards the New York Mets is age. If healthy, their oldest starter is 28.
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Like the Nats, health is the big issue. Matt Harvey returns from a disastrous 2016 ending with thoracic outlet syndrome. Zack Wheeler returns from his Tommy John injury while Robert Gsellman and Steven Matz are both expected to be ready Opening Day.
Although Colon departed for Atlanta, the Mets still have Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom at the front of the rotation. Syndergaard’s stuff is as filthy as Scherzer’s while the ERA is lower. Both feature WHIP’s around 1.200 and pinpoint control. At spacious Citi Field, the ball rarely leaves the yard fair.
The true key is staying healthy. Matz has had a hard time avoiding the disabled list and deGrom tossed 24 out of 33 starts. Why the Mets earn the top spot is depth. Add Seth Lugo to the mix and you have a staff of pitchers capable of posting ERA’s under four.
You really do not think a healthy Harvey will boast a 4.86 ERA again, do you?
While the offense is riddled with questions and the bullpen is thin, the starting rotation is the Mets strength. With seven pitchers under 30 capable of shutting teams down multiple times through the lineup, New York is the strongest threat to Washington in the division. Syndergaard, at 24, might already be among the best starters in the game.
They can win this division alone, a claim no other staff can make starting the season.
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That is our take, what’s yours? Tell us in the comments below.