Washington Nationals: Handicapping The Race For Closer

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As the race for Washington Nationals closer heats up, here are the chances for the contenders. Who would you peg as the favorite?

The true audition for Washington Nationals closer has yet to begin.

Although we have seen the contenders pitch this spring, none have thrown against a full major-league lineup in what passes for a high-leverage situation. With an added week of games to get players ready for the World Baseball classic, the traditional fourth or fifth inning appearances are not there.

If you hoped we would get an early resolution to the problem before the Grapefruit League fully ripened, the answer is no. If you can guess who gets the call in April at Nationals Park against the Miami Marlins, go play the lottery.

As the WBC is now underway—along with the endless parade of minor-league-bound players getting a look from big-league coaches—we should see the contest begin.

Instead of early game pitching, pay attention soon to who pitches right after the starter. Those arms will now pitch into the fourth and fifth innings over the next two weeks as they build pitch counts around 75. Then the “closer” gets work before the rest of the pen.

Who wins the job depends on what manager Dusty Baker, pitching coach Mike Maddux and general manager Mike Rizzo agree on.

That does not mean we cannot handicap the process. We all know who we want to see slam the door this season, but what are the odds it happens?

As with any good horse race, let’s parade the field and see where they are heading to the post.

JOE NATHAN- 1000-1

Although it was noble for the Nationals to offer the veteran a chance in camp, it is hard to see Joe Nathan having a place on the 25-man roster this April, let alone the closer’s role.

With a fastball topping 92-mph in a tailwind, Nathan has yet to mix his off-speed pitches with a flat fastball that can fool anybody. When he finds the strike zone, balls get hit. Pitches dance around too often and opposing hitters wait him out.

Eighth on the all-time saves list with a resume that will garner Hall of Fame discussion, if Nathan wished to wow us and win, he likely is disappointed.

You can close and not throw fireballs, but you need to baffle hitters with changing speed and precision within the zone. Nathan has not done that. Some of that is understandable rust, but most comes with age and a body not doing what is expected.

Maybe, he can eat an inning in a lost cause game or bridge a fifth or sixth inning gap, but in no way should he be on the mound in any high-leverage situation.

Nathan gave it a go. Under the right circumstances, he can be productive. On a contender, it is a recipe for disaster.

THE FIELD- 100-1

You never know what Rizzo has up his sleeve with deals, but we are making the safe bet that the 2017 closer is already on the Nationals and is one of the pitchers.

Of course a Joe Blanton or Sammy Solis might surprise or Alex Colome, David Robertson or a wild card could steal the job, but we are well into Spring Training. To pull off a shocker at this point would equal a No. 2 seed falling at the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament in the first round.

On paper, sure. Reality tells a different tale.

The three clubhouse leaders—to keep mixing in those sports metaphors—have not changed. Unless one gets hurt, the chances of a major move now are slim.

But, not impossible. As with the Matt Wieters signing, if the price of an arm fall enough, either in cash or prospects, the Nats are not afraid to pull the trigger. The mantra is win now. If Dellin Betances falls in their lap, the deal is done, yesterday.

Still, the conventional wisdom from the off-season stands today. Washington will go internally until it proves not to work. Then, around the trade deadline if needed, the Nats make a deal and grab a closer for October as they did with Mark Melancon.

Not ideal, but sausage making is ugly, anyway.

KODA GLOVER- 10-1

If fans had a vote, Koda Glover is the man. Forget his numbers from last year. People forget he labored in 2016 with a bad hip.

What he put on display so far is incredible. Featuring a cutter, change and a fastball with incredible movement, Glover has swing-and-miss stuff that pounds the strike zone.

Against the Boston Red Sox, he fanned the side, each pitch drawing louder “oooh’s and ahh’s” from a crowd settled in to snooze through the minor-league portion of the game.

With his injury behind him, each of his appearances this spring has delivered the same performance. Pitches that hit spots with hitters checking their bats for holes.

We know Glover is the closer of the future. Although Baker is not fond of trusting younger players to deliver in high-pressure situations, he threw Trea Turner into the cauldron last year and reaped the rewards.

Glover may falter in the coming weeks. He is human. The display, so far, is like Turner last year. People stop and watch his inning of work.

April may not be his time to shine at the end, but Glover will be the man come October. His stuff is filthy, and he makes it look easy.

BLAKE TREINEN- 5-1

Based on his early returns, Blake Treinen kooks good.

His fastball hit 98 on the radar gun. His delivery is smooth and his work solid. If it was not for Glover’s jaw-dropping games, Treinen would be the smart darkhorse to watch.

This is where things get tricky for Baker and us watching from the side. Treinen has yet to throw to anything resembling a full major-league lineup. He has lost nothing in the race, but he has gained nothing either.

With Treinen’s ability to throw a 100-mph sinker—how in the world can you hit that in the air is a mystery—his ability to induce a grounder gives him a real chance.

As with Glover, Treinen has never been in the ninth inning hot seat. Whatever he does the rest of the Grapefruit League matters. He will strikeout hitters and he will walk his share.

That is the x-factor here. Can Treinen pound the zone without beating himself. The potential and credentials are there. When given the chance to audition, can he pull it off is the big question.

Regardless if he wins the job or not, Treinen will pitch from either the high-leverage seventh or eighth inning. If Glover does not steal the job, Treinen by necessity will have save opportunities. If we end up with the dreaded “closer-by-committee”, he is the vice-chair.

As a fallback, he is a solid choice.

SHAWN KELLEY- 2-1

As we watch the Nats flirt with Joe Nathan, Eric Gagne and John Lannan to bolster their bullpen depth, Shawn Kelley enters the heart of the Grapefruit League as the closer.

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A capable bridge last year between the departure of Jonathan Papelbon and Melancon, Kelley has everything you want from a closer. He can pound the strike zone, strike out batters at will and not beat himself.

Yet, there are real concerns. Aside from a recent Tommy John surgery that limits his durability comes another arm injury suffered last season in the playoffs.

When we keep hearing interest in a series of pitchers, you have to stop and ask yourself if the Nationals trust Kelley to not only stay healthy, but handle the pressure as closer.

Of the three choices, he has looked the worst this spring. But, you really cannot read too much into numbers right now. He is loosening up and working on getting ready for the long road ahead. Saying he looks worse than others does not mean bad.

No one expects him to be pulling off the Koda Glover sow. Spring Training is about preparation and mechanics. Until Kelley relieves a starter and pitches, anything he does now should not count against him unless the wheels fall off.

Kelley’s performance last year earns his position this spring. The questions arise later with potential back-to-back games and trying too hard and overthrowing.

Next: Strasburg Struggles In Jupiter

With a nod to veterans, the job is Kelley’s. How long he holds it depends on his stuff and health.

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