W/L: 11(12)-10 ERA Range: 3.85-4.25 IP Range: 170.7-177 WAR Estimate: 1.8-2.0
The models do not love Tanner Roark.
Because these projections are weighted over the last few years, and not on last season entirely, they look at his 2015 where he pitched mainly out of the pen. Since he posted a 4.38 ERA that season, the models have a hard time compensating between his weaker year and last year.
If he regresses back to 2015, the Nats are in serious trouble.
What the projections agree on is he makes 28 or 29 starts. That is a number a bit low. Their call for him to pitch under six innings a start is puzzling too. In 2016, Roark averaged nearly seven a start.
Only Steamer thinks he matches his 7.4 K/9 rate at 7.2. ZiPS and Depth Charts have Roark under 7.0. ZiPS puts him at 6.6. All three projections list his BAbip at a minimum of .290 with Steamer calling for a .305 rate. Last year, the number was.269.
The computers say Roark is headed for a major down year, but with his career bouncing roles from starter to reliever, it is hard to shape out an accurate call. If he performs at these levels, it is bad news.
Here, the projections feel wrong. Roark should make at least 30 starts and pitch 200 innings.