Washington Nationals: Predicting The Statistics Of Starting Pitchers
By Ron Juckett
GIO GONZALEZ
W/L: 11-9 ERA Range: 3.75-3.86 IP Range: 163.3-165 WAR Estimate: 2.9-3.1
The computers love Gio Gonzalez. In unison, they look at last year’s 4.57 ERA and reject it as an anomaly. All three are in lock step with his numbers. They see him as the Gonzalez from 2015, someone who pitched overall better than his record.
If early spring returns are a measuring stick, the projections are solid. He looks the confident pitcher again.
As with the other predictions, innings pitched projects conservative. Yet, they are within a tenth of each other on ratio calls. With his K/9 numbers, Steamer has him at 8.35, ZiPS at 8.60 and Depth Charts at 8.5. Last year’s true number was 8.7.
Although they think he improves his ERA by over a half-run, they show his BB/9 rate climbing from 3.0 to 3.2 and his BAbip near 2016’s .316.
If you were offered the projections above, you would take them and run. As a No. 4 starter, anything under a 4.00 ERA is super. Again, they project him missing three starts. If Gonzalez makes over 30, the inning total will creep toward 180.
Six innings every five days while giving the Nats a chance to win is what you want from him. There will be nights where the fingernails are gone after Gonzalez is done, but when we look back, those numbers are reasonable targets and okay.