Washington Nationals: Projecting the Lineup Statistics

rjuckett
Mar 2, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner (7) connects for a double during a spring training game against the Houston Astros at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 2, 2017; West Palm Beach, FL, USA; Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner (7) connects for a double during a spring training game against the Houston Astros at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
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TREA TURNER

AVG PROJECTION: .282-.301 OBP PROJECTION: .331-.347 SLG PROJECTION: .445-459 WAR ESTIMATE: 3.5-3.9

As with Tanner Roark last week, the computers struggle with younger players and assessing proper value to minor league values.

With Trea Turner, the numbers above are not horrible, but the models discount his ability to hit home runs and steal bases. Remember, he slugged 13 in 73 games last year while stealing 33. The models have him over 145ish games with 15 homers and 35-40 swipes.

That fails to pass the smell test. Yes, Turner played out of his mind last year, but it seems impossible to double his playing time and getting the same counting statistics. Doubling his 3.3 WAR is unlikely, but the projections of 3.5 to 3.9 seem too conservative.

Expect there to be regression with a full load of a season, but do not figure Turner to hit 40-50 points lower in batting average and 20-30 down in on-base percentage.

Turner offers both power and speed from the leadoff hole. A walk could turn into a double with his speed. With the lineup behind him, NL pitchers will throw strikes.

Based on this spring, the bat is in good shape. He will have the green light to steal and give pitchers fits over the course of a long season. The WAR will likely exceed 4.0. If it hits 5.0, Turner will be in the MVP mix.

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