Washington Nationals: Projecting the Lineup Statistics
By Ron Juckett
ADAM EATON
AVG PROJECTION: .286-.288 OBP PROJECTION: .355-.357 SLG PROJECTION: .412-421 WAR ESTIMATE: 2.5-2.8
All three models think Adam Eaton will match his slash line of .284/.362/.428 reasonably well his first year in Washington. Scoring a 6.0 FanGraph’s WAR is another story.
The projections do not like his move from right field to center. With a score of 18.0 in the FanGraph’s formula for defensive WAR, all three now paint him in negative territory between -1.1 to -2.2.
Out of the leadoff spot with the Nats, they project a drop in plate appearances and counting numbers, but the averages remain in line with last year. They project a healthy 13-16 stolen bases but a drop in home runs from 14 to nine or ten.
For a player who topped 150 games the last two years, none of the projections have Eaton over 149. ZiPS gives him that with Depth Charts at 142 and Steamer at 144. Over 150 games is probable unless of an injury. At 28, rest is not a priority.
If his glove work is better than expected, his WAR score will increase. Perhaps not as high as last year’s 6.0, but somewhere between 2014 and 2015 between 3.1 and 3.7.
Expect Eaton to be himself his first year in DC.