Washington Nationals: Projecting the Lineup Statistics

BRYCE HARPER

AVG PROJECTION: .280-285 OBP PROJECTION: .406-.413 SLG PROJECTION: .521-.531 WAR ESTIMATE: 4.4-5.3

There are two schools of thought with what the models say for Bryce Harper. Last year was an anomaly; we know. Yet, so was his monster MVP year of 2015.

Overall, those projections put him between the two. As with others, they have Harper playing between 138 and 150 games. He played 153 in 2015 and 147 last year. The home run projection ranges from ZiPS 29 to Depth Charts 31.

If you have seen how the ball flies off his bat this spring, a 30-homer season is conservative. Harper takes pitches in West Palm Beach he swung at last fall. When he makes contact, the swing is fluid and free. Yet until his MVP season, he was never a 30-home-run hitter.

If the batting average models are correct, again, that is his second-highest mark. All three projections say Harper draws over 100 walks and strikeouts. They also feel he will steal between 14-15 bases. An optimistic number considering his spot in the order.

A WAR of 5.0 gets you into the MVP conversation. The smart bet is his home run and 88-94 RBI projections are a touch low and Harper gives the Nationals a productive season.

Trying to put specific predictions for any one player with counting numbers is tough. Although everyone wishes a return to 2015, the projected numbers above are good.