Washington Nationals: Projecting the Lineup Statistics
By Ron Juckett
AVG PROJECTION: .232-.257 OBP PROJECTION: .313-.343 SLG PROJECTION: .386-.414 WAR ESTIMATE: -0.4-0.6
The projections for Jayson Werth are all over the place. At 38, they are.
Except for the WAR estimate, the percentages are around what Werth did at the plate last year. His slash line of .244/.335/.417 are modeled here. All three projections see a tail off of extra-base hits and that is realistic.
Still, Werth takes several pitches and held his own hitting second last year. An Adjusted OPS+ of 94 at 37 is league-average. If he gave the Nationals that again, they would take it and run.
Werth is in decline. The 28 doubles and 21 home runs on the stat sheet last year will drop. His home run estimate is 14-16 while the doubles range from 21-24. Those models are fair. If he exceeds his 2016 totals, he will have done a giant stroke of business.
With three bench players capable of playing the outfield—Chris Heisey, Adam Lind and either Michael Taylor or Brian Goodwin—expect Dusty Baker to give Werth as much rest as he wants.
His value, as Werth winds down his career, is not production but in the clubhouse. He wants this year to be special. What we do not hear is as important as on the field. Although every locker room has its moments, the less we know the better.