Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg Looks To Continue Opening Day Success

Strasburg Back On Opening Day Mound

For the first time since 2014, Stephen Strasburg is back on the mound for the Washington Nationals in an Opening Day start. In his prior three Opening Day starts, the 28-year-old right-hander is 2-0, has given up five runs, and has struck out 18 batters in 20 innings. As a team, the Nats are 3-0 in those games.

Of course, Strasburg’s season ended on a sour note last season when he had a he flexor mass strain in his right elbow in the month of September that caused him to miss the postseason. There is excitement to see Strasburg back, but also some intrigue because of the change he’s made in his pitching style.

This spring, Strasburg pitched solely from the stretch, which should help him repeat his mechanics easier. While his numbers this spring weren’t the best (1-2, 6.61 ERA, 14 strikeout in five starts), the most important thing was that he stayed healthy.

Against the Marlins last year, Strasburg only made two starts, but he was dominant. In 14 innings, he gave up three runs, struck out 17 batters, and Miami hitters had a .163 average as he went 2-0 in those starts. The only home run by a Marlins hitter against him last year was Christian Yelich (6-for-27, 10 K’s against him).

Outside of the health, another thing to watch from Strasburg today is how much he uses the slider. Last year, he used that pitch for the first time and had success early on. It can still be a good pitch, but he can still rely on the fastball to reach 97-98 miles per hour at any given point.

Now, let’s take a look at the Marlins Opening Day starter, who is making his second straight Opening Day start, but for a different team

Volquez Looking For Good First Impression

Volquez is back in the National League for the first time since he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2014. As mentioned before, the 33-year-old right-hander got the start on Opening Day last year, but it was for the then defending champion Kansas City Royals.

Last season, Volquez made 34 starts for the second consecutive season, but he had a under .500 record (10-11) and an ERA of 5.37 in 189.1 innings. Over the last two seasons, his strikeouts per nine innings have been seven or lower.

His second half didn’t go particularly well last year as opponents hit .317 with 12 home runs against him and Volquez’s ERA was 6.12 over those 15 starts. With that being said, Miami hopes he can be one of those starters that give them 5-6 good innings and get a lead to their bullpen.

If there’s one pitch that Volquez struggled with over that stretch of starts, it was his sinker. According to Brooks Baseball, teams hit .371 against that pitch with seven home runs and a slugging percentage of .580.

Against the Washington Nationals in his career, Volquez is 2-3 with a 4.24 ERA in seven starts. In Interleague play last year, he faced the Nats and had a strong outing in a no-decision. He went 7.2 innings, gave up two runs on seven hits, struck out seven, and walked one.

We’ve talked about the starting pitchers, but now let’s talk about some of the hitters to watch going into the game. First, let’s start with the Nats lineup against Volquez.

Nationals Lineup Against Volquez

Since Volquez was in the American League Central last season, it’s only fair we start with another player from the AL Central last season. Of course, today is also the first game Adam Eaton will be playing center field for the Washington Nationals.

With the White Sox last season, Eaton got to see a lot of Royals pitching. In his battles with Volquez, he was 5-for-9 with a RBI after going 3-for-16 against him the previous year.

A lot of the intrigue in the lineup will be where Dusty Baker decides to put Eaton in the lineup. He could hit him second behind Trea Turner or hit him sixth like he did for part of the spring. If there was one bold prediction to be made today, I think Eaton will find a way to steal a base for the first time against him.

All eyes will also be on Daniel Murphy, who didn’t get much playing time in the World Baseball Classic and hasn’t played in many exhibition games since. Murphy showed a great ability to shake off rust in the postseason last year, but how will he do to start this season?

If there’s one pitcher that could help him get on track, it just might be Volquez. Murphy has faced him each of the last two seasons and in the World Series back in 2015. He is 8-for-18 against him with two doubles, three RBI’s, and three stolen bases.

As a unit, the Nats have a .305 lifetime average against Volquez, but only one of them have hit a home run (Jayson Werth). Ryan Zimmerman doesn’t have a large sample size to go off of, but he is 3-for-6 with a double and four RBI’s.

While the Nats don’t have much of a history against Volquez, the opposite could be said for the Marlins against Strasburg:

Marlins Lineup Against Strasburg

In seven seasons with the Nats, Strasburg has a winning record against the Marlins in six of them. Over 25 career starts, he is 12-7 with a 3.51 ERA and has 139 strikeouts, which is the second most he has against any team in his career (144 against the Braves).

When you talk about the Miami Marlins offense, the conversation starts with right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton had one of the memorable home runs in the World Baseball Classic against the Dominican Republic.

Stanton has been a thorn in the Nats side for many years. Against Strasburg, he is 14-for-38 (.368) with seven doubles, three home runs, and ten RBI’s. But, he has struck out 13 times and hasn’t homered against Strasburg since 2014.

If the Marlins are going to be one of the surprise teams in the National League, they need Stanton to stay healthy for most, if not all, of the season. They would need a year similar to 2014 when he hit 37 home runs and drove in 105 runs in 145 games.

One player who doesn’t get a lot of attention in this lineup is Marcell Ozuna. The left fielder hit .305 against Washington Nationals with a pair of home runs and nine RBI’s. Out of his 20 hits, seven of them were for extra bases.

Last season, Ozuna hit 23 home runs (tied a career high), drove in 76 runs, and had an on-base percentage of .321. But, his season didn’t end so well when you consider he had a .209 batting average in the second half of the year.

In 2016, the Marlins scored the third fewest runs of any team in the National League. With the talent they have in that lineup and second baseman Dee Gordon expected to play for a full season, their ranking in that category in the NL should go up this year.

Finally, let’s look at the battle of the bullpens and make a prediction on the game

Battle Of The Bullpens/Prediction

With both teams having new pieces in their bullpen, it will be interesting to watch how both Don Mattingly and Dusty Baker use their bullpens today.

Of course, if the Nats are in a save situation, the pressure will be on Blake Treinen to get the job done. You never know how someone will handle the ninth inning for the first time when the spotlight is on, so that should be fun to watch. Against Treinen last year, the Marlins were 8-for-34 with three doubles and four RBI’s.

With Treinen now in the ninth inning, how will Dusty Baker handle the roles in the bullpen? Everything would be easy if Strasburg went seven or eight innings and handed the ball to Treinen. However, if it doesn’t happen that way, then when does Baker use Shawn Kelley, Joe Blanton, or Sammy Solis?

On the other side, the Marlins have probably the most underrated closer in the game in A.J. Ramos. He was 40-for-43 in save chances last year, which includes being a perfect 5-for-5 against the Nats. Over the last three years, he is 10-for-11 in save chances vs. Washington.

Prediction: I expect tomorrow afternoon’s game to be a competitive one. Volquez showed some good things pitching in the World Baseball Classic on Opening Day, so he should keep the Nats offense in check to some degree.

However, Bryce Harper usually puts up big numbers on Opening Day and I would expect that trend to continue. (6-for-15, four home runs).

As for the pitching, Strasburg pitching from the stretch will be something to keep an eye on, but I would expect him to put up some strong Opening Day numbers (six innings, two earned runs).

Next: 5 Takeaways From Grapefruit League

While the bullpen will make this game interesting, the Nats find a way to get the Opening Day win over the Marlins.

NATIONALS 5 MARLINS 4