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Washington Nationals: 5 to watch in Cubs’ visit to D.C.

By Drew Douglas

Jun 15, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Jayson Werth (28) talks with Chicago Cubs second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) during a challenge of Zobrist's tag of Werth at second base in the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Werth was ruled out on the challenge, and the Nationals won 5-4 in twelve innings. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 15, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals left fielder Jayson Werth (28) talks with Chicago Cubs second baseman Ben Zobrist (18) during a challenge of Zobrist's tag of Werth at second base in the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Werth was ruled out on the challenge, and the Nationals won 5-4 in twelve innings. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jake Arrieta

After pitching to a 3.10 ERA, the tenth lowest in the National League, and finishing ninth in NL Cy Young voting in 2016, Jake Arrieta has struggled mightily in 2017. In 15 games, he has racked up a 4.36 ERA, which is 42nd in the majors.

Over the last few years, Arrieta has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. In 2015, he pitched to a 1.77 ERA and won the NL Cy Young Award. He even posted a 0.75 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star Break.

Then he dominated last season, leading the Cubs to their first World Series win in 108 years. However, he has not been the same this year.

A possible explanation for Arrieta’s decline is his workload over the last two seasons. In 2015 and 2016 combined, he pitched 468.1 innings (including postseason).

Another sign of his workload catching up to him other than his loss of effectiveness is a dip in velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, in April of 2016, his average fastball velocity was 94.9 mph. This April, his average fastball velocity was only 92.5 mph, over 2 mph slower than last year.

The Nats have several players with a solid history against Arrieta. Harper, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman are all batting at least .250 with at least ten plate appearances.

Arrieta’s 4.93 ERA in eight games against the Nats ranks fifth-worst of all teams he’s faced at least five times. A few runs against Arrieta on Tuesday could go a long way, as he will be opposed by Max Scherzer.

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