Washington Nationals: Top five storylines heading into the second half

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As the Washington Nationals begin the second half of their season on Friday, here are five storylines to keep an eye on.

The first half of the 2017 season was an eventful one for the Washington Nationals. They have regressed a bit after going 17-8 in April, but are still among the best teams in the league and will be in the playoffs, barring anything unexpected.

The Nats got off to an outstanding start to the season and were clicking on all cylinders from day one. The starting lineup was potent; every starting position player except for Jayson Werth and Stephen Drew recorded a base hit during the Nats’ Opening Day win over the Marlins. The bench was powerful; Adam Lind hit a go-ahead pinch-hit homer in the seventh inning.

The rotation looked solid; Stephen Strasburg only allowed two runs over seven innings. Finally, the bullpen appeared to be lights-out; Sammy Solis pitched a perfect eighth before handing the ball to Blake Treinen, who earned the first save of the season.

Unfortunately, since Opening Day, the season has been filled with an abundance of frustration. The bullpen has been among the worst in the league, there have been seemingly countless injuries, and some players who figured to play key roles have struggled mightily.

Despite all the frustration and struggles, the Nats have managed to remain among the best teams in the league. After the first half, the Nats have the third-best record in the National League, and would be the number two seed if the playoffs began today.

In addition to team success, several Nats players have already received individual recognition. The Nationals sent five players to the All-Star Game for the second straight season this year. Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg all represented the Nats in Miami and appear to be in the running for more awards after the season.

The Nats had an exciting first half of the season and with the All-Star Break winding down, the second half is quickly approaching. With all that in mind, here are the top five storylines for the second half.

5. Will Ryan Zimmerman return to his early-season form?

After battling injuries and struggling mightily over the last few years, Ryan Zimmerman has finally resembled the young superstar that Nats fans grew to love throughout their early years back in DC. At the end of April, Zimmerman owned a .420/.458/.886 slash line with 11 homers, 29 RBI’s, and 22 runs scored.

Zimmerman was leading the MLB in most offensive statistical categories, and was finally performing like everyone knew he could. Unfortunately, he has regressed significantly each month. He hit .319 with four homers in May, .283 with four homers in June, and has hit .217 without a homer so far in July.

Over the last calendar month, Zimmerman’s .244 batting average ranks 140th among qualifiers, so he has fallen off quite a bit. His .636 on-base plus slugging also ranks 164th.

Despite his recent struggles, he is still putting together an incredible season. He is currently in the top ten in the National League in doubles (22), RBI’s (63), batting average (.330), slugging percentage (.596), on-base plus slugging (.969), total bases (177), and extra base hits (41).

One possible cause for his recent struggles is fatigue. Over the last three seasons, the most games he has played is 115. However, he is currently on pace to play 147 games, which would be his most since 2013. To put things into perspective, he was still a third baseman in 2013, so it’s been a while.

It would be huge for the Nats if Zimmerman is able to return to his early-season form, and he would make this already potent lineup even more dangerous. At this pace, he is a near-lock to be named the NL Comeback Player of the Year. If he is able to return to his early-season form, he would also have quite the case to be named NL MVP.

It will be interesting to see if the All-Star Break helps Zimmerman find his swing again and if he receives some additional off-days down the stretch to keep him fresh. The Nats need Zimmerman to continue his incredible season and lead them on a deep postseason run.

4. Can Tanner Roark and Joe Ross hold down the back-end of the rotation?

The Nationals have always been a team built on pitching. This year’s team is no different, with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez pitching phenomenally at the front-end of the rotation.

However, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross have both been extremely inconsistent at the back-end of the rotation. Roark, one of the most consistent pitchers in the league over the last few years, has been a major disappointment this season.

After having the sixth-lowest ERA in the MLB and finishing tenth in NL Cy Young voting last year, Roark has not been the same in 2017. In 18 games, he has pitched to a 5.27 ERA. He also allowed 59 earned runs in the first half, which is just seven less than his career-worst, which was accomplished in over double the amount of innings.

Most of Roark’s struggles have been due to less than optimal control. Known for his pinpoint command, Roark has had trouble locating his pitches. Although this hasn’t necessarily resulted in an increase in walks, he has left countless pitches over the heart of the plate, which are exceptionally hittable.

One popular theory as to why Roark has struggled in 2017 is his participation in the World Baseball Classic. He had an abbreviated Spring Training and was pitching in high-leverage situations while most of his teammates were playing in exhibition games. It’s not guaranteed that the WBC caused 2017 to be a rough season for Roark, but it’s a definite possibility. There aren’t many other reasons as to why one of the league’s most consistent pitchers over the course of several seasons would suddenly become one of the league’s worst starters.

Ross has also struggled in 2017. Luckily for Ross, the offense has provided him with an unbelievable amount of run support. In his 13 starts, he has received an MLB-leading 10.1 runs per start.

Ross has greatly improved over his last few starts, but could soon find himself on the disabled list. During his start on Sunday, he was forced to leave after just 3.1 innings with triceps tenderness. His velocity was lower than normal throughout his start, and many of his fastballs registered as change-ups. It will be a shame if Ross’ soreness requires a trip to the disabled list because he was finally beginning to pitch better.

If Roark and Ross are unable to improve in the second half, the Nats may be forced to give Erick Fedde or Edwin Jackson a shot in the rotation. The back-end of the rotation will definitely be worth keeping an eye on throughout the second half.

3. When and how will Trea Turner return?

On June 29, Trea Turner fractured his wrist after being hit by a pitch. This was a huge blow for the Nats, as they lost their starting shortstop and leadoff hitter. Luckily, he is expected to return around late August or early September, so he will be back in time to tune up for the playoffs.

Braves infielder Freddie Freeman suffered a similar injury and returned after seven weeks. Not only has he returned, he has returned and made a huge impact. The Nats know this well since he recently hit .389 with two homers in a four-game series at Nationals Park.

The Nats lineup is among the most dangerous lineups in the league, so they can stay above water for now with Brian Goodwin and Michael Taylor at the top of the lineup, but it will be huge to get Turner back for the playoffs. Wilmer Difo, Stephen Drew, and Adrian Sanchez have done a nice job at shortstop but, again, Turner will be a huge upgrade.

When Turner was called up last season, he provided an instant spark and transformed the offense. Upon his return, he will be able to make a similar impact. It will be as if the Nats acquired a superstar right before the playoffs.

The time off could also be beneficial for Turner. He is still very young has never played this many games in a season, so some time off could ensure that he is fresh and at his best for the playoffs.

Although the Nats have undoubtedly felt the loss of Turner, he should be back in time for the playoffs and the injury actually has a few possible benefits. His progress through rehab and his return to the lineup will be something interesting to keep an eye on towards the end of the year.

2. How will injured players return and will the Nats be able to avoid more injuries?

The Nats have been extremely unlucky when it comes to injuries this year. Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor, Adam Eaton, Koda Glover, and Shawn Kelley are all currently on the disabled list and someone new is getting injured seemingly everyday. Joe Ross is also dealing with triceps tenderness, as mentioned earlier.

Despite all these injuries, the Nats have remained among the best teams in the league, which can be attributed to their great bench and organizational depth. Players such as Brian Goodwin, Michael Taylor, Wilmer Difo, and Stephen Drew have done an outstanding job while filling in for injured starters and have earned additional playing time when starters return.

Although the Nats have handled the myriad injuries well, they probably cannot afford to lose another impact player. The players listed above have filled in admirably, but there is not much depth left if anyone else gets injured.

The starting pitchers should be an area of concern for the Nats. Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Roark are all in the top ten for pitches thrown among NL pitchers. Their heavy workload is a bit concerning, especially considering Dusty Baker‘s history.

It’s not guaranteed that Baker is responsible, but he is widely blamed for Kerry Wood and Mark Prior‘s arm injuries. If the Nats starters continue to routinely throw well over 100 pitches, they could become dangerously susceptible to injuries. The best starting options in the minor leagues are Erick Fedde, Edwin Jackson, and A.J. Cole so the Nats can’t really afford to lose a starter.

It will be interesting to see how the Nats currently on the DL return and if the Nats will be able to avoid any more major injuries in the second half.

1. How will the bullpen fare?

It’s no secret that the Nats’ bullpen hasn’t pitched well in 2017. Their collective 5.20 ERA ranks dead last in the MLB. After beginning the season with Blake Treinen as the closer, Koda Glover, Shawn Kelley, Matt Albers, Enny Romero, and Oliver Perez have all recorded at least one save.

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Unfortunately, the closer isn’t the only issue in the bullpen. Very few guys have found much success in any role. They are, however, beginning to improve. Treinen has been lights-out lately, while pitching in non-save situations. Joe Blanton has also looked much improved lately, not allowing a single run in his last seven appearances.

The two relievers most used to close out games with Glover out, Albers and Romero, have also improved. Albers has been a very pleasant surprise, pitching to a 1.93 ERA in 33 games after not making the team out of Spring Training. Romero has also pitched exceptionally well. His triple-digit fastball paired with his cutter and curveball have allowed him to pitch to a 3.63 ERA in 37 games.

Despite some recent success, the Nats are still in need of two impact relievers. With the window to win possibly closing, this is arguably the most important trade deadline in team history. The Nats are an excellent team with one weakness, their bullpen. They have what it takes to go on a deep postseason run, but they must address their bullpen issues at the deadline.

The Nats need to make a few prospects untouchable: Victor Robles, Erick Fedde, and Juan Soto, per se, but they should be willing to trade anyone else in order to acquire relievers. You don’t have a serious chance to win a World Series every year, so you must take advantage of the opportunity when it arises.

The Nats’ bullpen is undeniably weak and has been one of their few weaknesses this year. If they fail to address it at the trade deadline, it is hard to picture them going on a deep postseason run. All eyes are on Mike Rizzo with just a few short weeks until the trade deadline.

Next: Five prospects that could be dealt

The Nats had an excellent first half, which was very exciting and fun to watch, although frustrating at times. The second half should be just as exciting, as the Nats push for the first Washington World Series title since 1924.

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