Washington Nationals: 5 to watch versus the Milwaukee Brewers

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After a huge road trip, the Washington Nationals return home to meet the Milwaukee Brewers. Who should you keep an eye on?

The Washington Nationals finally will make the rounds in the National League in 2017 when they host the Central division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

Well, co-leaders as those dreaded Chicago Cubs caught them Sunday night. Never mind those Cubs visit Milwaukee this weekend, the Brewers will focus on their potential NL Divisional Series opponents and not the 800-pound gorilla marching up I-94 ready to knock them out of first.

Yes, this mid-week clash sets up well for the Nats. And that is when trouble happens.

Washington had a day to compose themselves and rest after a successful trip to Cincinnati and Arizona. Although the health of Stephen Strasburg remains a mystery, the Nats stormed into the second half winning seven of eight and forcing the Atlanta Braves as sellers for the upcoming trade deadline frenzy.

Despite injuries, a bullpen crafted straight out of Stephen King’s imagination and the occasional mental lapse, the Nats stand on the verge of back-to-back postseason appearances. In the 49 seasons the franchise has played in Major League Baseball that is a first. Stranger things have happened but, as the rest of the division prepares to retool for the future, Washington readies for now.

The Brewers are a hot mess.

As the Nats launched after the break, Milwaukee has dropped seven of their last ten. Swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates in a four-game tilt in the Iron City, the Brew Crew split their six games with the lowly Philadelphia Phillies including dropping two in Philly.

Rumors swell the Brewers want Sonny Gray to shore up their pitching. Reality says a sweep could set them three back heading home for the Cubs.

As we await what happens at Nationals Park, here are five to watch over the next three games.

TRAVIS SHAW

Make no mistake, the success of the Milwaukee Brewers is no accident. A young and exciting team, the strength shown this year will pay off in the future.

When the Brewers fleeced the Boston Red Sox for Travis Shaw, they found a hungry third baseman ready to play every day. The “Mayor of Ding-Dong City” outlasted his Boston replacement Pablo Sandoval and the injured Tyler Thornburg. (Author’s thoughts redacted.)

Matched with Eric Thames in the middle of the lineup, Shaw is enjoying a career year. With the chance to play every day, he is flourishing. Already with 22 home runs, he has 70 RBI over 88 games. A slash line of .294/.361/.567 gives him an OPS of .928 and adjusts to 136. How did he not make the All-Star team?

Shaw is a good defender. Baseball Reference lists his defensive Wins Above Replacement at 0.4. Anything on the positive side is great.

As long as he contributes at the same level, the Brewers will contend this year in the NL Central. With their lead gone, watch how Shaw performs. If he can heat up, the Brewers can with this series and head home still in first place.

WILMER DIFO

In a season full of amazing statistics and records, the Nats record of 23-6 with Wilmer Difo as a starter ranks near the top of the list.

Injuries have given Difo the chance to be a regular, and that has paid off in spades. Over the last 28 days, his slash line is an impressive .378/.464/.467. His batting eye is why. Over the 17 games he has played in during the last month, he has nine walks in 56 plate appearances mixed with five strikeouts.

Whether hitting second or eighth, Difo is comfortable in either position. From the bottom of the lineup, he reaches base at a .367 clip. From the two-hole it is .345.

We know his limited starts in the outfield are an adventure. Even during his recent good offensive stretch, Difo is a singles machine with limited power and hardly and doubles. Not fast enough to be a base stealing threat, he will swipe an occasional bag.

Yet, when you combine his skills, they add up to a positive for Difo and the Nats. He is a good defender, playing both shortstop and second. As a key player off the bench, he will not hurt you unless you stick him in center field.

Difo’s performance is a major reason the Nats hold a comfortable division lead. Losing a resurgent Trea Turner to the disabled list could have seriously crimped the offense. With Difo’s play, it has not.

ZACH DAVIES

When the leading winner on the pitching staff has an ERA close to five, you have troubles. Zach Davies is in search of his 12th win Tuesday with an ERA of 4.76.

Another member of the Brewers tremendous young core, Davies pitches through growing pains. One night, he shuts down offenses and others make him look like Charlie Brown on the hill.

He is a contact pitcher who allows too much. Yet, Davies has won his last four decisions and is 11-4 overall. In 20 starts, the Brewers are 13-7. On June 4, he held the Los Angeles Dodgers off the scoreboard for six innings. Not an easy task.

Three starts later, the Pirates lit him up for seven over five innings and the Phillies put five earned runs on the board over 5.1 and Milwaukee still won.

Davies is not a pitcher who draws swings and misses. Twice this year has he drawn double-digits there. Seven is his season-high in strikeouts. If the Nats can be patient at the plate, the potential is there for a field day.

Again, whatever the Brewers do this year is gravy. Although Davies lacks what most see as a proven ace, his WHIP of 1.486 scares no one, he wins games. No matter what you think of the win stat, he has positive results 73.3 percent of the time this year.

It works.

EDWIN JACKSON

The second start of Edwin Jackson’s latest tour with the Nats is big.

He dazzled last Tuesday in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels. Jackson scattered two runs and three hits over seven innings in his first appearance with Washington since 2012.

When his contract was purchased from Syracuse, the thought was Jackson would start a few games until Erick Fedde was ready for the majors. With Joe Ross out the rest of this season, this was a way to fill a few starts in preparation of the playoffs.

That dynamic changed with Stephen Strasburg’s Sunday injury. Although the severity of Strasburg’s latest trouble is a mystery, if it knocks him out for a chunk of time then Jackson becomes more than a token fifth starter. He faces the possibility of starting Game 4 of the NLDS.

Considering any Game 4 of a best-of-five is a clincher, the Nats must ensure Jackson is the right guy for the job.

A bad start Tuesday means little, but a few wobbly ones in a row do. If Strasburg’s forearm is okay, then Washington will wait for Fedde. If not, expect them to make an August deal to shore up the back end of the rotation.

Jackson’s time in Syracuse after his release from the Baltimore Orioles was productive. After an encouraging first start, he is well on the way to a solid finish to his season.

COREY KNEBEL

Good luck Nats hitters having to face Corey Knebel.

Closers tend to have absurd statistics. Their job is to throw everything they have out there for one inning to slam a door. Knebel’s takes his to the next level.

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In his first year as closer, Knebel has fanned 81 in 46.2 innings. Borderline obscene! His K/9 rate is 15.7. Hitters must lose sleep when he closes Zach Davies starts. Although Knebel’s control is not pinpoint, 5.2 walks-per-9 is sketchy, his WHIP of 1.187 is impressive. When you allow a skimpy 5.4 hits-per-9, you get those numbers.

With a fastball reaching triple-digits and a biting curve, Knebel will remind you of Enny Romero. Not the closer when the year began, his ability to set up games gave him the chance when the time came. Although he has 17 saves, there are five blown save chances thrown in the mix.

In his third season with the Brewers, this is by far his best year. If Milwaukee is to pull the shocker and win the NL Central, Knebel must continue at this pace.

Next: Harper, Roark our POTW

The key for Nats hitters is patience. He will strike hitters out, but fights his control. A drawn walk adds pressure as Washington’s lineup is scary enough to cause young pitchers like Knebel to think twice.

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